A Brief History of Western Economics - SIEPR

A Brief History of Western Economics - SIEPR

Stabilizing the Climate with DAC: st 21 Century Economics x Stabilizing the Climate with DAC SIEPR SEEPAC Stanford University 10/20 2017 Sustainable Climate How to do it 2

To survive one needs to value survival The global Commons: Water, Air, Biodiversity In market economies value comes from markets: UN Kyoto Protocol Carbon market values the atmosphere Water Markets in Australia expanding globally Global Markets for Biodiversity 3 The Missing Signal If we destroy all trees & make toilet paper our economy improves Because Toilet Paper has Market Value & Trees do not.

why? We lack Market Prices New Market prices = New Values New costs and New benefits The Carbon Market Provides the Missing Signal 1996: KP Placed Limits on industrial emissions

2005: Enables KP Carbon - Market International Law 2012: CO2 market Trading $175Bn/year 2015: Paris Agreement ignores KP limits: purely voluntary its NDC do not reach of what is needed to prevent catastrophic climate change 4 UN Carbon Market Water Markets Biodiversity Market What is it? What it is not 5

Emission Limits are the basis of Carbon Market How does it Work Dirty pays clean ZERO overall costs Carbon Makes Clean Energy profitable Dirty Energy expensive and Undesirable

CARBON PRICES ARE THE Missing Signal $25/TON EMITTED CHANGES THE ENTIRE GLOBAL ECONOMY 6 The Carbon Market

Traded $175 USBn/year by 2012. Reduced 30% EU emissions CDM transferred $50-100 USBn clean energy projects in poor nations Successful EU ETS (World Bank Annual Report ) But in 2015 the UN Paris Agreement weakened it by requiring no mandatory emission limits. Carbon market works successfully in several US states, in China and EU 7 Carbon Market Links to Global Economy Everything is made with energy

Economic growth = Energy Use Link to Energy Carbon Market provides Missing Signal New Market Prices = New Values 8 FOCUS of Carbon Market Capping Emissions We cant get there without emissions reductions Markets for trading a Global Public Good: Using the planets Atmosphere Creating Equity and Efficiency 9

Where are We? What comes Next? 10 Economy, the Earth and our Species Economics must develop connections with the earths resources, between people and with the future of our species Basic needs basis of Sustainable Development The Basic Needs of 80% of Humankind who live in developing nations Undermined by resource intensive economics: over-extraction of raw materials from the poorest nations in Africa and Latin America Resources exported and over-consumed by 20% of world population in the industrial world 11

What to do? Change International Law Change Economics We just have to do it For the survival of our Species 12 Change International Law Basic Needs In 1974 the Bariloche Model of the World Economy Based on my new concept of Basic Needs Was the basis of Sustainable Development voted by 150 nations at the 1992 UN Earth Summit in Rio Brazil

Adopted by the G 20 in 2009 Sustainable Development 13 Change International Law The Carbon Market The Carbon Market I designed and wrote into the UN Kyoto Protocol in 1997international law since 2005 Productive clean CDM transfers to developing nations $50 Bn since 2005 EU ETS Trades $200 Bn/year, decreased >30% EU emissions since became law in 2005 Makes profitable the use of clean energy for the production of all goods and services Changes energy foundation of the Global Economy China ratified the Kyoto Protocol and since 2005 leads the World in Solar and Wind markets US did not and we are left behind in clean technology

14 Legal Agreements Achieved 1. 1992: Basic Needs: voted by 150 nations at UN Earth Summit Rio de Janeiro Brazil cornerstone of Sustainable Development (G-20 2009) Created the author in 1970s Bariloche Model 2. 1997: Global Carbon Market EU ETS, designed and written by author voted by 160 nations in Kyoto COP, 1997 international law since 2005, trading $175USBn in 2012 3. 2009: Green Power Fund Copenhagen COP 2009: proposed by author, now international law as Green Climate Fund 4. 2010: Global Thermostat: its Carbon Negative Technology trademarked by author compant co-founded by author can Reverse Climate Change (Forbes and KPMG, 2016) 5. 2015: UN Paris Agreement is voluntary only but contains four articles on Carbon Removals that can Reverse Climate Change

15 Changing 21 Century Economics is Key HOW? Provide Missing Connections Between people, with the environment, Between the Present & the Future 16 The Present and the Future Cost Benefit Analysis and Optimal Growth theory exist that do not discount the Future (Ramsey v Koopmans) A Formal Theory of Sustainable Development has been developed that

provides Equal treatment for future generations Connects the present and the future Sustainable Development (Chichilnisky 1996, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2010) 17 New types of Markets = New GDP Market economics can be made consistent with sustainable goals But markets themselves must change Individualistic markets must evolve into new types of markets that I postulated - markets for global public goods which

incorporate connections between people and value Valuing the Global Commons They are slowly emerging due to new scarcities: carbon market I created within the Kyoto Protocol, international law since 2005 trading $175Bn/year by 2012; SO2 markets in CBOT, new markets for Water in Australia and markets for Biodiversity (Chichilnisky (1992, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011) Global markets that value the Global Commons 18 New Markets change Capitalism Markets trading privately produced public goods are new They combine equity with efficiency

Connecting People They require limits on resource use Connecting Economics with Ecological Systems 19 Green Capitalism in the 21 Century st The basis exists: international law and economics Theoretically and in practice New markets for the global commons, new growth theory, new cost benefit analysis and new GDP measures, new international

law 20 The Global Commons New Economics From maximizing profits to economic progress that ensures survival of our species 21 Carbon-Negative Technology Urgently Needed To Remove Carbon from the Atmosphere In a Profitable Way

The Word needs Energy CLEAN ENERGY FOR DEVELOPING NATIONS 22 THE WORLD NEEDS CARBON NEGATIVE TECHNOLOGYTM According to the UN IPCC Fifth Assessment Report & the 2015 Paris Agreement, Carbon Negative Technology is now the only way to avert catastrophic climate change: Direct Air Capture of Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE GT Answers This Critical Challenge by Profitably Capturing Atmospheric CO2 for Productive Industrial Use Creating Abundant, Reliable, Low Cost Supply Wherever Needed Carbon Negative Power Plants o Atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise o

20% increase in the last half century o Hit 400ppm in 2013, for the first time 24 GLOBAL POLICY The Kyoto Protocol carbon market can provide funding to build Carbon Negative Power Plants in developing nations. It was already trading at $175bn/year by 2012, and reduced 30% of the emissions of the carbon

market trading nations GT can provide Economic Development that Reverses Climate Change 25 GLOBAL POLICY NEEDED Through the Green Power Fund, the Carbon Market can supply $200bn/yr for 15 years about $3Trillion total that suffices to build 10 30,000 carbon negative power plants to remove all CO2 that humans emit; about 30 gigatons /year

Only project finance is needed as costs are low and DAC plants are profitable: at 2-3% rate need about $60Bn/year 26 GLOBAL POLICY STILL NEEDED Need Carbon Emission Limits that Kyoto Protocol Provides but Paris Agreement does not. Carbon Negative Technology Facilitates staying within Carbon Limits - and can be profitable Carbon Removals are Carbon Negative Technology and part of the Paris Agreement. They were inserted by the author in four (4) articles of

the Paris Agreement in COP21 Paris December 2015 27 BUSINESS is the main obstacle BUSINESS MUST SOLVE THIS POLICY PROBLEM 1st GT PILOT PLANT Captures CO2 Directly from Air SRI International (formerly Stanford Research Institute), 333 Ravenswood Avenue, Menlo Park, CA 94025 28 USES OF CO2 Captured CO2 is repurposed for a myriad of industry applications

3% 71% 18% 5% 2% 1% Biofertilizers Industrial Gases Food & Beverage Building Materials

>$900m/ yr* >$20bn/yr* >$5bn/yr* Existing market Existing market Existing market Synthetic Fuels Seawater Desalination

>$1.5bn/ yr* >$500m/ yr* >$100m/ yr* Existing market Existing market Existing market *Credit Suisse

29 ENORMOUS UNMET DEMAND FOR CO2 GTs Competitive Advantage vs. Existing Supply ..Huge demand for CO2 unmet..1 Industrial Markets: Food & Beverages ($5bn/yr) Bio-fertilizers ($900m/yr) Building Materials ($1.5bn/yr) Seawater Oil & Gas: Desalination ($100m/yr)

Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), Clean up of Natural Gas Processing Renewable Fuels: ($500m/yr) Algae Biofuels, Synthetic Gasoline 1. Appendix: CO2 A MARKET FLOODED BY DEMAND ..Due to three critical issues Limited, Stranded Supply: Natural subterranean reserves

are limited. Supply is depleting and geospecific. Other sources are inadequate High Capture Costs: Competing carbon capture methods prohibitively expensive Difficult to Transport: CO2 is difficult to transport economically. Trucking and pipelines require significant capital investment for an inefficient process 30

CO2 A MARKET FLOODED BY DEMAND CryoGas International Magazine - May 2013 Page 28 31 What makes me think that this time we can succeed? 1.The Success of the Montreal Protocol due to commercially successful technology alternatives to CFCs 2.Now we have low cost carbon removal technology (DAC) 3. DAC has become commercially feasible SEPTEMBER 2016 |

CONFIDENTIAL 32

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