A Joint Atmosphere-Ocean Inversion for Surface Fluxes of CO2

A Joint Atmosphere-Ocean Inversion for Surface Fluxes of CO2

Oceanic Constraints on the Size of the Terrestrial CO2 Fertilization Sink A joint atmosphere-ocean inversion New air-sea fluxes No regularization

A large CO2 fertilization is sink not needed Why do we get this result? Is it reliable? Andy Jacobson, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Manuel Gloor, Niki Gruber, and Sara Mikaloff Fletcher Atmospheric transport estimates: TransCom3 modelers, Atmospheric observations:

NOAA CMDL Globalview-CO2 Program, GLODAP Ocean Carbon Survey: Robert M. Key, Richard Feely, Chris Sabine Flux Comparison Fluxes for tropical land regions and southern land regions are correlated cannot be reliably estimated separately. Positive flux: source to atmosphere Land-air flux Sea-air flux

mean 1 s.d. 80% CI How much of the answer comes from data? Transport model: MATCH (R. Law) How much of the answer comes from data?

Transport model: MATCH (R. Law) How much of the answer comes from data? Transport model: MATCH (R. Law) How much of the answer comes from data? Transport model: MATCH (R. Law)

How much of the answer comes from data? Transport model: MATCH (R. Law) Joint Inverse: Ocean Flux Constraints Key atmospheric inversions TransCom3 L2 control inversion result (Gurney

et al. 2004) Takahashi (1999) Takahashi (2002) MOM3 Forward sims ocean inversions Joint Inverse: Ocean Flux Constraints Key atmospheric

inversions TransCom3 L2 control inversion result (Gurney et al. 2004) Takahashi (1999) Takahashi (2002) MOM3 Forward sims ocean inversions Joint Inverse: Ocean Flux Constraints

Key atmospheric inversions TransCom3 L2 control inversion result (Gurney et al. 2004) Takahashi (1999) Takahashi (2002) MOM3 Forward sims ocean

inversions Joint Inverse: Ocean Flux Constraints Key atmospheric inversions TransCom3 L2 control inversion result (Gurney et al. 2004) Takahashi (1999)

Takahashi (2002) MOM3 Forward sims ocean inversions Oceanic Constraints on Terrestrial Fluxes Independent Fluxes Reject zero at 95% confidence level for T+SL flux.

77% probability that the T+SL flux is greater than 1.0 PgC/yr (vs. 49% previous best guess). Implications for a CO2 Fertilization Sink Net Source 1.8 1.1 (Current study)

= Deforestation + Residual 0.9 0.5 (DeFries et al., 2002) 0.9 1.2

1.1 0.3 (Achard et al., 2003) 0.7 1.1 1.9 (0.5-2 .5) (FAO) -0.1 1.3 2.2 0.8

(Houghton, 2003) -0.4 1.3 Residual ~0 1 PgC/yr Small residual flux is not compatible with the existence of a large fertilization sink in the tropics.

Air-Sea Flux Comparison Contemporary Fluxes 1992-6 Air-Sea Flux Comparison Contemporary Fluxes 1992-6 Anthropogenic and Preindustrial Flux Estimates Anthropogenic and Preindustrial Flux Estimates Anthropogenic and Preindustrial Flux Estimates

C* = DIC - Cbio = Cgasex + Cant + const Can Forward Models be so Wrong? Ocean uptake Ocean outgassing Zonally-averaged air-sea fluxes [Murnane et al. 1999]. In the Southern Ocean, a modest net flux is the result of large, offsetting

contributions from the solubility pump and from the biological pump. Can pCO2 Fluxes be so Wrong? The Southern Ocean is undersampled, especially in the winter. Summertime pCO2 is subject to biological drawdown, but wintertime levels may be higher. Figure courtesy of Colm Sweeney Conclusions Atmospheric data alone cannot reliably resolve

regional fluxes Ocean interior data constrain air/sea fluxes very strongly Large tropical & southern land (T&SL) source detected Magnitude of T&SL source similar to deforestation estimates. Hence, a large CO2 fertilization sink is not needed to close carbon budget. Partitioning of Sink: Land vs. Ocean -1.1 0.2 PgC/yr

Estimates for 1992-96 except where noted; By convention a negative flux represents uptake from the atmosphere; Outgassing of riverine carbon (0.45 PgC/yr) attributed to ocean. -1.7 0.2 PgC/yr

Construction of the Joint Inverse Key atmospheric inversions TransCom3 control inversion result Takahashi (1999) Takahashi (2002) MOM3 Forward Sims

ocean inversions joint inversions Oceanic Constraints on Terrestrial Fluxes Anticorrelated Fluxes Can we reject zero?

Joint Inversion Constraints 67 484 observations in ocean, 76 on land IPCC Terrestrial Models: CO2 Flux to Atmosphere (PgC yr-1) Predicted Response to Rising Atmospheric CO 2 Concentrations and Climate Change 1980s Fertilization Sink: 0.3 to -3.8 PgC/yr (reported)

4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Hybrid LPJ -8

IBIS SDGVM -10 VECODE 1992-96 Fertilization Sink: about -1 to -3.5 PgC/yr (rough estimates from graph)

Triffid CO2 Effect Only (model range) -12 1850 1900 1950

2000 2050 2100

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