Affordability Advantages in Integrating the Aircraft and ...
SPACE BILLETS How to Fund Manned Lunar Missions with Current NASA Budget 50th AIAA-JPC Conference, July 29, 2014 Cleveland, OH Member: Space Propulsion Synergy Team http:spacepropulsion.us Douglas G. Thorpe, Co-Founder: http://theUSAparty.com Problems with Present Commercialization of Space Commercial Market 1. 2. Small niche market: $2Billion per year Very limited # of flights: ~28 commercial launches/yr In comparison: Airline market dwarfs space launch market $5,000B vs $2B 642 million passengers on 8.9 million airline flights each year vs less than 543 to EVER go into space 3. Cost of Satellite can be an order of magnitude more than launch service; thus, Price of Launch Service much lower factor than long term-high success rate
o These 3 problems means it is nearly impossible to develop a business case or enter commercial market Problems with Present Commercialization of Space Governments Cost Plus contracts incentivizes NOT to commercialize space o Contractors receive up to 9% profit for every dollar they spend; For every man that they can justify for the job in the name of safety is more profit to them; Bigger budgets for government overseers mean bigger pay grade. If only they received $0.50 profit for every dollar they saved. Result of Impossible commercial market and Cost Plus government contracts: o o Launch Service Industry can not grow
o Price of launch services will remain high for the foreseeable future Almost no way for entrepreneur of making a good business case for new launch vehicle Prior Art o John Walker states in A Rocket a Day that IF the flight rate was increased, the cost of each launch vehicle or mission would be reduced. o Walker expounds how the worlds first mass produced rocket, Germanys V-2 ballistic missile, had a marginal cost of only $13,000 and they produced over 6,000 rockets during war time conditions with slave labor. o Presentations by Gleason have expounded the cost effectiveness of orbital LOX depots using high flight rates. We approach from the government perspective by proposing that IF the government would establish long-term markets with very high flight rates with Not-To-Exceed prices, commercial ventures would be created to fill those markets with incredible savings to the government. We refer to these long term markets with guaranteed high flight rates with not-to-exceed prices as Space Billets
A Space Billet was originally coined to only mean a stay at a Space Hotel (from the housing of soldiers during the Revolutionary War) it now means any fixed contract with guaranteed market over a long time in the Space Industry Value of a Space Billet SPACE BILLETS - $20M Value each Category Earth to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) basic payload (LOX) Earth to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft/satellite payload Earth to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) back to Earth - Astronauts Earth to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) Earth to Trans-Lunar Injection Orbit Earth to Mars Orbit LEO to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) LEO to Trans-Lunar Injection Orbit LEO to Mars Orbit Accommodations at Space Hotel Accommodations at Lunar Hotel (min. 200 man-week/yr) Space Debris Removal >2kg size Amount 10 6.67 3 4.22 3.85 2.49 7.29 6.25 3.31 10 0.26 10 Units
ton ton each ton ton ton ton ton ton man-week man-week pieces $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $/lb 1,000.00 1,500.00 n/a 2,372.29 2,600.00 4,020.62 1,372.29 1,600.00 3,020.62 n/a n/a n/a
BTW: A Saturn V class mission that delivers 100,000 lb of payload from earth to Trans-Lunar Injection orbit or 260,000 lb to LEO would be worth $260M via 13 Space Billets. Bigelow BA330 space complex module has a stated lease rate of $25M/18 man-weeks or 14 man-weeks per Space Billet equiv. The ISS costs $525M per 10 man week vs $20M for Space Billet What are Space Billets A Space Billet is a firm, fixed pay-upon-completion contract that should replace the current cost plus 9% fixed fee contract instrument that NASA usually utilizes. The Space Billet plan guarantees a large market rate over a period of time so businesses can make a commercial business case and obtain investment funding. We propose a market rate of 150 to 350 Space Billets per year - $3B to $7B per year no-risk investment by the government. Basic Space Billet is 10 tons of useful payload at $1,000 per lb (or 3 astronauts) transported from ground to Low Earth Orbit a Basic Space Billet is worth $20 million.
If in-space propulsion technology is not improved, Liquid Oxygen (LOX) will make up 70% of Space Billets for payloads transported beyond Low Earth Orbit, i.e., the moon or geostationary orbit. Space Billets will allow ANY commercial American company to deliver goods and astronauts not only to low earth orbit, but to the moon and beyond. How it works Rather than NASA (and Congress) designing a vehicle and trying to find a mission for it; NASA would merely define MARKETS and any American company could obtain their own development funding via investors to fill those markets. Example: NASA declares that it wishes to perform 5 manned missions to the moon per year for the next 10 years. NASA will establish and allocate 100s of Space Billets for: o o o o o
earth-to-LEO missions, LEO space hotel / way station LEO-to-TLI (Trans-Lunar-Injection) orbit missions, Lunar orbit to Lunar Surface missions Lunar base. It would be up to commercial ventures to develop and deploy the hardware (with their own funding) that would fulfill these missions. What Space Billets Doesnt Do Space Billets takes the design and development of launch vehicles, lunar landers, and other equipment out of the hands of NASA and the politicians (because NASA simply sets a goal of delivering astronauts to the moon, not how to accomplish that goal) and places it in the hands of businesses, who are going to find the cheapest method of accomplishing those different tasks. Space Billets doesnt: o Develop & spend nearly $3.1B per year just to maintain an expensive space station just for a few astronauts, instead it guarantees that at least 52 visitors will spend 10 weeks at a commercial space hotel per year (at $1,040M per year) for the next 5 years if a commercial company wants to provide one or more to NASAs specifications. o Develop a vehicle to land on the moon, but instead it guarantees a market to transport at least 20 visitors to the moons surface over 5 missions per year for 5 years if a commercial company wants to provide those services. o
Establish a lunar base, but guarantees a market for 20 visitors/yr for 10 years at $1,040M per year PER LUNAR BASE o Develop a rocket to put things into orbit, but instead it provides a guaranteed market of 150 to 350 missions per year for 5 years at a fixed, low price that can be used by the government or purchased by private companies. What is Possible with $3.56B in Space Billets/year for 10 years Over a 10 year period, $35.6B (1,780 Space Billets) would accomplish the following: $ 4,300M: Remove ALL (~2,150) large space debris from orbit o 1 mission/day for 8.6 years $ 4,870M: 730 astronauts and Gov. tourists transferred to LEO $ 5,600M: Transfer 210 astronauts from LEO & Land on the moon $10,400M: House 520 Astronauts and Gov. tourists in a space hotel for 10 weeks each $10,400M: House 210 astronauts & govt. tourists in Lunar Hotel for 10 weeks each.
o $82.86M per astronaut on the moon for 10 weeks In like manner, a further investment of $5B per year for 10 years in Space Billets could be utilized to: $50,880M: House 210 astronauts in floating space stations on Venus o $242.3M per astronaut at Venus But why should the big aerospace companies support Space Billets Because they can make more profit than the Cost Plus 9% contracts. $3.56B yields only $320.4M profit via Cost Plus At the 11:00am presentation: 10 ton payload can be placed into LEO at marginal cost of <$1M @ 250 missions/year. o 10 ton payload transported from LEO to TLI orbit via momentum tether o
10 ton payload from LEO to TLI = 1.6 Space Billets = $32M so gross profit >95% 10 ton payload transported from TLI orbit to Lunar surface via ???? o 10 ton payload to LEO = 1 Space Billet worth $20M so gross profit > 95% 10 ton payload from TLI to Lunar surface = 2.4 Space Billets = $48M; profit = ? If 10 ton payload is a partial section of lunar hotel for 4 astronauts o o o Lunar hotel for 20 astronauts * 10 weeks each = 52 Space Billets = $1.04B per year Cost to transport 10 ton lunar hotel module from earth to lunar surface = $200M BTW: Weight of Bigelow BA-220 = 22 ton What we hope to Accomplish The best outcome from implementing a Space Billets program is: That Space Billets will become obsolete for missions to LEO and even the moon in just a few years. That the owner of the Lunar Base informs NASA that Lunar Base Alpha is already booked with space tourists for most of next year, does NASA want them to launch a new lunar base?
That politicians and the space industry will stop promoting a grand government launch vehicle or space station because it will create jobs! but instead, will start thinking about what will we do once we get there. o Boeing didnt start the 787 aircraft program to create more jobs That the American people will demand that NASAs funding is doubled so more Space Billets will carry us to Venus and beyond. Summary 3rd in Series of 5 papers on Cheap Access to Space Goal of this paper is to show the economic advantages of establishing long-term Space Markets with high flights rates and firm-fixed prices for payment for completion 2nd Goal was to show that Space Billets are more profitable to business and so we hope businesses advocate for their implementation 3rd Goal was to show how Space Billets are NO RISK to politicians and government leaders who advocate for their development & implementation Results were encouraging enough that more research should be devoted by NASA, Air Force, and Congressional leaders to develop and implement the Space Billets plan. It is our greatest desire for Space Billets to become obsolete within 10 years since commercial markets may demand more flights than Space Billets allocated and at a lower price. $1,000/lb to LEO was chosen at random. More research should be conducted to determine the optimum rate that will foster the commercialization of space. Please see: http://www.theusaparty.com/policy.html For further info on Space, Global Warming, healthcare & other issues
Unfortunately, most Red Team members have poor understanding of how they can make the biggest contributions. Often, Red Teams degenerate into editing sessions. So a thorough in-briefing on assignments and review procedures is necessary. The evaluation factors are critical input.
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