Climate Smart Agriculture: Trends, Drivers, Global Context and the EU Western Balkans Climate Resilience Workshop Vienna, Austria, 11-12 May 2016 The Trends What will it take - Feeding 9 Billion People in 2050 Changing Consumption
Changing Diets Food Consumption by Region 2005/07 vs 2050 Percentage Increase 05/07 2050 183% SSA 81% 79% 43%
SAR MENA LCR CEA 2013 based on FAO 2012, CCAFS 2015 30% EAP 11%
Developed Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems Here Today PRODUCTION Volatility Impacts FOOD Prices PRICE Volatility Impacts SHARE prices Recent price spikes for food commodities have been linked to extreme weather events A price hike in corn (black) drives down the share price of Tyson Foods (red)
Corn Tysons World Bank 2008, Reuters Eikon Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems Worsening Tomorrow Decreasing Yields Maize and wheat yields show climate impacts Increasing Cost Structure Price for beef increasing steadily due to pressure from feed and pastureland markets
Beef from 2009-2014: +100% CCAFS 2014; Reuters Eikon Climate Change Impacts on Food Systems Uncertain Future Disappearing Chocolate? Yield Collapse? Areas suitable for Cocoa production in Ivory Coast, today (top) and in 2030 (bottom) TODAY
2030 CIAT, World Bank The Drivers TODAY - The Food System is PART of the Climate Change Problem TOTAL EMISSIONS LAND USE CHANGE ~11% OF TOTAL
AGRICULTURE ~13% OF TOTAL Agriculture; Land Use 13.00% Change; 11.00% Buildings; 6.40% FOREST LAND 63% Transport; 14.00%
IPCC 2014 LIVESTOCK 62% Other Energy; Industry; 21.00%9.60% RICE - 10% OTHER - 12% Whos Emitting in Food Systems? Agricultural Emissions in Mt CO2e/y
California Environmental Associates 2013, unpublished. Based on data from FAOSTAT 2010. Whats Emitting in Food Systems? Global emissions by commodity, 2008 The European Context EU Total Emissions 2013: 4,477 million tonnes CO2eq Source: Eurostat EU AG Emissions 2012: 407 million metric tonnes CO2eq Source: FAOSTAT
TOMORROW The Food System could be THE Climate Change Problem Projections of Global, Agriculture and Land Use Change Related Emissions towards 2050 (Gt CO2e) Global Emissions: 49.1 Gt Agriculture Business As Usual Ag. Reduces Proportional to Other Sectors Global Emissions:
21-22 Gt ~25% of Total 11% 14% 5.4 Gt LULUCF* 6.4 Gt Agriculture TODAY ~70%
of Total 25% 5.4 Gt LULUCF* 45% 9.5 Gt Agriculture - 5.5 Gt 60% GAP
4 Gt Agriculture 2050 - 2C Ensuring Emission Level By 2050, Agriculture and Land Use Change could represent 70% of Global Emissions if global emissions are reduced in accordance with a 2C goal, while Agriculture were to remain in business as usual. WRI 2013 Global Emissions: 21-22 Gt
*Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry By 2050, Agriculture will have to reduce its emission intensity by 60%, if it is to maintain its footprint in parallel with overall emissions reductions. This assumes emissions from Land Use Change will have fallen to zero. The Backstory Growth in AG commodity demand toward 2050
Kharas, 2011 Global meat consumption driving the demand for feed and emissions National Geographic Magazine Food Not only driving emissions - Not all water is consumed equally Efficient production definitely does not correspond with efficient consumption 45%
25% 22% 19% 15% SHARE OF AVAILABLE FOOD THAT IS LOST OR WASTED WRI 2015 17% 23%
So, where are the solutions? Poverty, Hunger, Climate and Climate Smart Agriculture WHAT IS THE CHALLENGE? To build food systems that meet increasing demand while remaining profitable and sustainable in the face of Climate Change. WHAT WILL IT TAKE? 1. 2. 3.
CAN IT BE DONE? Increasing productivity sustainably Enhancing the resilience of producers and supply chains Reducing Emissions CSA = SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE
Yes, but we need to connect Climate Change with the bottom line of farmers and food businesses + RESILIENCE - EMISSIONS What and Where are the Opportunities to Deliver? How does this relate to the EU and the CAP?
How does the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) support CSA? Reformed in 2013, the new CAP (2014-2020) includes an estimated 104 billion (or 25% of the total) in funding for AG and RD that is related to climate. EC COP21 Factsheet CAP background AG is the only sector funded entirely by the EU budget (as opposed to public expenditure in member countries) Accounts for 40% of EU budget (AG + Rural Development) CAP 2014-2020 priorities are viable food production, sustainable management of natural resources, and balanced rural development throughout the EU
Strong mitigation focus How is this 104 billion being deployed? CAP 2014-2020 introduced several instruments to incorporate sustainability into income support for farmers and rural development programs. Pillar 1 Income support for farmers now includes Green Direct Payments (30% of direct payments) for implementing certain practices; subject to cross compliance: Cross-compliance simplified and more targeted environmental cross-compliance to be met in order to receive full CAP funding
Pillar 2 Rural development programs must now reserve 30% of the budget for voluntary measures that benefit the climate and/or environment Close-up on Green Direct Payments Payments for three obligatory greening practices, with no obligation to produce New direct envelope payments Obligatory practices
1. maintaining permanent grassland 2. dedicating 5% of arable land to ecological focus areas 3. diversifying crops * Farmers can instead undertake practices which are considered equivalent CSA in action in the EU - The case of Ireland What is Origin Green?
Launched in 2012, Origin Green is a national labeling program that aims to put every farm and food manufacturing business in Ireland on the road to sustainable production by 2016. Program for farmers and food businesses throughout the entire AG value chain to set, achieve, and report on sustainability targets National level (Bord Bia) Voluntary Sustainability Charter provides framework for setting targets 85% of all exports! Why is it unique? Target areas
1. Raw Material Sourcing 2. Manufacturing Processes 3. Social Sustainability Only national labeling program with an independent verification process (800 farm audits/week!) How does CSA fit in? The Sustainability Charter is increasingly incorporating dimensions of CSA, motivating and enabling farmers and businesses to achieve measurable targets for these dimensions throughout the supply chain.
Electrostatic potential distribution calculated by the Scattering Matrix method. The system is composed by a punctual charge over a dielectric sample (e1=20, e2=10, e3=5, e4=40). The distribution of coefficients for the SM is shown on the left of the image.
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