Consultation on implementation of 2018 GICS changes in ... - MSCI
CONSULTATION ON IMPLEMENTATION OF 2018 GICS CHANGES IN THE MSCI EQUITY INDEXES March 2018 This consultation may or may not lead to the implementation of any or all of the proposed changes in MSCIs indexes. Consultation feedback will remain confidential. MSCI may publicly disclose feedback if specifically requested by specific market participants. In that case, the relevant feedback would be published together with the final results of the consultation. 2018 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document. SUMMARY On November 15, 2017, MSCI and S&P Dow Jones announced the revisions to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) structure for 2018. The changes will be implemented in GICS Direct as of the close of September 28, 2018. MSCI proposes to implement the changes resulting from the 2018 GICS structure revisions in the MSCI Equity Indexes in one step as part of the November 2018 Semi-Annual Index Review (SAIR). MSCI proposes the following enhancements for the implementation of the 2018 GICS structure revisions in its equity indexes: - MSCI Cyclical and Defensive Sectors Indexes Methodology Proposal to classify Communication Services as a Cyclical sector - MSCI Minimum Volatility and MSCI Diversified Multiple Factor Indexes Methodologies Additional turnover budget for certain indexes at the November 2018 SAIR - No proposed changes for other MSCI Index Methodologies MSCI invites feedback from market participants on or before April 18, 2018. 2 OVERVIEW OF 2018 GICS CHANGES The GICS structure will be revised to reflect the evolution in the mode in which people communicate and access entertainment content and other information. This evolution is a result of the integration between telecommunications, media and internet companies. Highlights of changes to GICS in 2018 - Telecommunication Services will be broadened and renamed as Communication Services - Media companies will move from Consumer Discretionary to Communication Services - Internet services companies will move from Information Technology to Communication Services - E-commerce companies will move from Information Technology to Consumer Discretionary TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES SOFTWARE AND SERVICES e.g. AT&T, Verizon, China Mobile TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES e.g. Ebay, Alibaba Group CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY RETAILING MEDIA e.g. Comcast, Disney, Netflix e.g. Alphabet, Facebook, Baidu MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT
COMMUNICATION SERVICES Examples based on select list of companies expected to be impacted as a result of the GICS revisions as released by MSCI and S&P on January 11, 2018 3 ESTIMATED IMPACT ON SECTOR INDEXES AND PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE 4 ESTIMATED IMPACT SECTOR INDEXES Sector indexes based on the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes (GIMI) or the MSCI US Equity Indexes and covering the Communication Services, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary Sectors will be impacted by the 2018 GICS changes. Simulated One-Way Index Turnover on Sector Indexes Based on the MSCI GIMI and MSCI US Equity Indexes* Communication Services Sector 67% 66% 80% 29% 29% 31% 70% ACWI World USA World ex USA EAFE Europe EM US Investable Market 2500 Information Technology Sector 24% 19% 21% 9% 9% 3% 44% Consumer Discretionary Sector 20% 19% 26% 9% 9% 14% 34% 3.02%20% 80% 24% 18.36% 3% Current Sector Weights Current Sector Weights Communication Services 14% Information Technology
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary Energy Energy Industrials Consumer Staples 10% Health Care Health Care Financials Financials Utilities Utilities Real Estate Real Estate Consumer Discretionary 19% Communicatio n Services Information Technology Energy Consumer Discretionary Energy Industrials Materials Consumer Staples Health Care Consumer Staples Financials Utilities Communication Services Information Technology Consumer Discretionary Materials Industrials Consumer Staples Information Technology PF Sector Weights
Current Sector Weights Energy Materials Materials Materials 12% 23% Communication Services Information Technology Communication Services 9% 2% 9% 18% Current Sector Weights Sector Weight Impact on MSCI US Inv. Market 2500* Sector Weight Impact on MSCI ACWI* 13% 11.95% Industrials Industrials 10% Real Estate Health Care Financials Consumer Staples Utilities Real Estate Health Care Financials Current MSCI ACWI Pro Forma MSCI ACWI Current MSCI US IMI 2500 Pro Forma MSCI US IMI 2500 Utilities Real Estate *Simulated using Dec 1, 2017 data based on initial assessment of company-level GICS changes. Company-level GICS changes may be subject to change; final list of impacted companies will be released on July 2, 2018.
5 PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION TIMELINE MSCI proposes to implement the 2018 GICS changes in one step as part of the November 2018 Semi-Annual Index Review MSCI plans to launch MSCI Provisional Indexes for the three impacted GICS Sectors following the release of the final list of impacted companies (July 2, 2018) - The timeline for the launch of MSCI Provisional Indexes will be communicated in due course Feedback Questions: - Do you agree with the proposed implementation timeline? - Should more time be given to market participants to prepare for the changes (e.g., implement the changes at the May 2019 Semi-Annual Index Review)? 6 PROPOSED CHANGES TO MSCI CYCLICAL & DEFENSIVE INDEXES 7 MSCI CYCLICAL & DEFENSIVE INDEXES MSCI Cyclical and Defensive Indexes methodology are based on classification of 11 GICS sectors as either Cyclical or Defensive MSCI proposes to classify Communication Services sector as Cyclical in the new GICS hierarchy GICS Sector Current Classification New Classification Correlation (Old GICS) Correlation (New GICS) Beta (Old GICS) Beta (New GICS) Financials Cyclical Cyclical 0.29 0.29 1.27 1.27 Information Technology Cyclical Cyclical 0.28
-0.11 0.02 0.88 0.99 Energy Defensive Defensive -0.3 -0.3 0.98 0.98 Utilities Defensive Defensive -0.61 -0.61 0.63 0.63 Consumer Staples Defensive Defensive -0.63 -0.63 0.59 0.59 Healthcare Defensive Defensive -0.73 -0.73 0.64 0.64 *Correlations w.r.t CLI and beta against MSCI World Index were calculated using returns of sector indexes in MSCI World for periods between 1998-2017 8 MSCI CYCLICAL & DEFENSIVE INDEXES Large inflows from Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors strengthen the proposed cyclical nature of the Communication Services sector
Communication Services 26.00% Information Technology 41.00% Telecommunication Services Consumer Discretionary 33.00% *as of Dec 01 2017 Feedback Question : Do you agree with the proposed classification of Communication Services? 9 ONE-TIME TRANSITION PROPOSAL FOR MSCI MINVOL INDEXES AND MSCI DMF INDEXES 10 ONE-TIME TRANSITION PROPOSAL MSCI Minimum Volatility Index Methodology and MSCI Diversified Multiple-Factor Index Methodology use active sector weight-based constraints as part of their index construction methodology Simulations using the new GICS structure did not indicate any significant impact in terms of risk reduction for the MSCI Minimum Volatility Indexes or the factor exposures for the MSCI Diversified Multiple-Factor Indexes for a majority of the indexes* Simulations using the new GICS structure indicated that the changes in parent sector weights for the below indexes mandate additional turnover to bring impacted sectors within active sector limits. Please note that no other indexes need additional turnover budget Index Name Standard Turnover Proposed Additional Total Turnover Turnover MSCI South Africa Minimum Volatility (USD) Index# 10% 5% 15% MSCI South Korea Minimum Volatility (USD) Index# 10% 5% 15% MSCI USA Consumer Discretionary Diversified Multiple Factor Index
20% 15% 35% Simulations as of Dec 01, 2017; #Proposed TO relaxations also apply to the respective local currency optimized minimum volatility indexes MSCI proposes to evaluate the above indexes again post the May 2018 SAIR to determine the appropriate turnover relaxations *Please refer to Appendix for comparison 11 OTHER MSCI INDEXES WITH POTENTIAL IMPACT 12 MSCI ESG INDEXES The following list of methodologies have sector dependencies and will reflect GICS 2018 structure changes starting from November 2018 SAIR These methodologies were reviewed and MSCI is not proposing any enhancements to the methodology or their implementation at November 2018 SAIR Methodology Name Sector Constraint Inclusion / Exclusion Cap on sector in Optimization based on sector weights Strict Sector Neutrality MSCI ESG Leaders Methodology No Yes No No MSCI SRI Methodology No Yes No No MSCI Low Carbon Target Methodology Yes No No No MSCI Low Carbon Leaders Methodology
Yes Yes No No MSCI KLD 400 Social Methodology No Yes No No MSCI Catholic Values Methodology No Yes No No MSCI ACWI Sustainable Impact Methodology No No Yes No MSCI USA ESG Select Methodology Yes No No No MSCI ESG Focus Methodology Yes No No No MSCI Women's Leadership Methodology No No No Yes MSCI Empowering Women Methodology No
Yes No No MSCI Japan Human and Physical Investment Methodology No Yes No No The simulated turnover due to the 2018 GICS changes for selected indexes based on these ESG methodologies is available in the Appendix 13 MSCI FACTOR AND THEMATIC INDEXES The following list of methodologies have sector dependencies and will reflect GICS 2018 structure changes starting from November 2018 SAIR These methodologies were reviewed and MSCI is not proposing any enhancements to the methodology or their implementation at November 2018 SAIR Methodology Name Sector Constraint Inclusion / Exclusion Sector Specific Cap on sector in Optimization based on sector Scores / Ranking weights MSCI Agriculture & Food Chain Indexes Methodology No Yes No No MSCI Commodity Producers Indexes Methodology No Yes No No MSCI Infrastructure Indexes Methodology No Yes No No MSCI Dividend Masters Indexes Methodology No
No No Yes MSCI Enhanced Value Indexes Methodology No No Yes No MSCI High Dividend Yield Indexes Methodology No Yes No No MSCI Prime Value Indexes Methodology No Yes No No MSCI Quality Indexes Methodology (Sector Neutral Quality) MSCI ACWI Emerging Market Consumer Growth Indexes Methodology MSCI Barra Factor Indexes Methodology No No Yes No No Yes No No Yes No No No MSCI Equal Weighted Indexes Methodology No No
No Yes MSCI Market Neutral Barra Factor Indexes Methodology Yes No No No MSCI Risk Weighted indexes Methodology No No Yes No MSCI Volatility Tilt Indexes Methodology No No Yes No MSCI Consumer Demand Indexes Methodology No Yes No No MSCI Factor ESG Target Indexes Methodology Yes No No No 14 APPENDIX 15 ESTIMATED IMPACT - MSCI MINIMUM VOLATILITY INDEXES (1/2) MSCI Minimum Volatility indexes were simulated using the new GICS structure to assess for any additional turnover requirement and many of these indexes did not need any additional turnover Also, there was no significant improvement in utility if optimizer was provided with additional turnover and the results indicated similar Risk Reduction and Number of Constituents for Old GICS and New GICS structure
Proforma Parent Old GICS Structure New GICS Structure Proforma Min Vol Index Proforma Min Vol Index Index Name Risk Number of Securities Risk Turnover Number of Securities Risk Turnover Number of Securities ACWI Min Vol 9.85% 2501 6.63% 10% 403 6.60% 10% 422 USA Min Vol 9.34% 633 7.07% 10% 208 7.04% 10% 212 World Min Vol 9.80%
1654 6.69% 10% 332 6.67% 10% 332 EM Min Vol 12.66% 847 9.59% 10% 266 9.53% 10% 266 Europe Min Vol 13.81% 446 11.23% 10% 161 11.23% 10% 161 AC Asia Pacific ex 11.62% Japan Min Vol 723 9.32% 10% 239 9.21% 10% 239 321 11.42%
10% 181 11.42% 10% 181 Japan Min Vol 13.41% Simulated Impact Analysis & Rebalancing Statistics as of Dec 01,2017, using GEMLT model For the purpose of analysis transition from GEM2 to GEMLT was done in June 2017 SAIR 16 ESTIMATED IMPACT - MSCI MINIMUM VOLATILITY INDEXES (2/2) List of MSCI Minimum Volatility Indexes that will require additional turnover, based on calculations as of Nov 2017 SAIR rebalancing Example: Active sector weights for Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology under new GICS structure are 10%, -6% and -4% respectively Absolute deviation of active sector weights beyond the 5% sector bound, are 5%,1% and 0% respectively Minimum Additional one-way TO related to GICS change = Sum(Over flow of 3 sectors)/2 = Sum(5%, 1%, 0%)/2 = 3% Total TO = Original TO + Additional TO = 10% + 3% = 15% (After rounding to nearest multiple of 5) Simulated Sector Active Weights as of Dec 01, 2017 Index SOUTH AFRICA MINIMUM VOLATILITY (USD) KOREA MINIMUM VOLATILITY (USD) Sector Sector Constraint Communication Services Consumer Discretionary Communication Services Consumer Discretionary Information Technology 10% 12.5% Active Sector Weight (New GICS) -19.94% Weight Overflow 9.69%
No 10.82% 2.26% -19.09% No No Yes Proposed Min Additional oneway Turnover Yes 5% 5% The additional turnovers are also applicable to the respective local currency optimized versions of the above indexes Please note that the proposed minimum additional turnover is unavoidable and its objective is only to include the GICS change and there might still be a need for additional relaxations due to the other factors when GICS changes are actually implemented 17 ESTIMATED IMPACT - MSCI DIVERSIFIED MULTI-FACTOR INDEXES (1/2) Simulated rebalance of the major MSCI DMF Indexes using new GICS hierarchy exhibits similar active factor exposures relative to the simulated rebalance under old GICS hierarchy at the November 2017 SAIR Active Factor Exposures under Old GICS Structure Index Size Momentum Value Quality ACWI DMF -0.617 0.418 0.376 USA DMF -0.624 0.226 World DMF -0.656 Emerging Markets DMF Active Factor Exposures under New GICS Structure Size Momentum Value Quality
AC Asia Pacific DMF -0.655 0.340 0.397 0.232 -0.643 0.329 0.420 0.229 Japan DMF -0.647 0.303 0.196 0.152 -0.752 0.281 0.134 0.178 Simulated Impact Analysis & Rebalancing Statistics as of Dec 01, 2017 using GEMLT model For the purpose of analysis transition from GEM2 to GEMLT was done in June 2017 SAIR 18 ESTIMATED IMPACT - MSCI DIVERSIFIED MULTIPLE FACTOR INDEXES (2/2) Based on simulations using new GICS as of November 2017 SAIR, among all the MSCI Diversified Multiple Factor Indexes, only the MSCI USA/Cons Disc DMF Index will need additional turnover relaxation Additional turnover is required due to high turnover in parent index because: 25 securities get deleted with a cumulative market cap weight of 26% 2 securities get added with cumulative pro-forma market cap weight of 3% Under the new GICS structure, the MSCI USA /Consumer Discretionary Index becomes more concentrated and an additional turnover of 5% is required to maintain active stock constraints as well as to account for changes in the parent index Simulations as of Dec 01, 2017 Security Name AMAZON.COM HOME DEPOT MCDONALD'S CORP PRICELINE GROUP (THE) STARBUCKS CORP NIKE B LOWE'S COS
GENERAL MOTORS TJX COMPANIES FORD MOTOR CO Weight under Old GICS Structure Weight under New GICS Structure 15.91% 6.95% 4.68% 2.98% 2.84% 2.69% 2.36% 2.04% 1.57% 1.56% 20.95% 9.15% 6.16% 3.92% 3.74% 3.54% 3.11% 2.68% 2.06% 2.05% 19 ESTIMATED IMPACT - MSCI ENHANCED VALUE INDEXES METHODOLOGY Methodology uses sector specific score computation The below table compares the simulated index rebalance turnover if new GICS structure was implemented at the November 2017 SAIR against the actual November 2017 SAIR which used old GICS structure Index Turnover using Old GICS structure Turnover using New GICS structure EM Enhanced Value 7% 19% AC Asia ex Japan Enhanced Value 10% 22% USA Enhanced Value 7% 13% World Enhanced Value 9% 14%
ACWI Enhanced Value 11% 15% Japan Enhanced Value 6% 7% Europe Enhanced Value 9% 10% Simulations as of Dec 01, 2017 20 ESTIMATED IMPACT - MSCI SECTOR NEUTRAL QUALITY INDEXES METHODOLOGY Methodology applies sector neutrality concept The below table compares the simulated index rebalance turnover if new GICS structure was implemented at the November 2017 SAIR against the actual November 2017 SAIR which used old GICS structure Index Turnover using Old GICS Structure Turnover using New GICS Structure World Sector Neutral Quality Index 11% 16% 18% 21% ACWI Sector Neutral Quality Index 9% 12% EM Sector Neutral Quality Index 11% 14% AC Asia ex Japan Sector Neutral Quality Index 13% 16% Japan Sector Neutral Quality Index
11% 12% Europe Sector Neutral Quality Index 14% 13% USA Sector Neutral Quality Index Simulations as of Dec 01, 2017 21 ESTIMATED IMPACT ON ESG INDEXES Based on simulations, the implementation of the new GICS structure may generate some additional turnover for certain MSCI ESG Indexes: Nov 2017 Index Review Methodology Example of Index ESG Leaders SRI Low Carbon Target Low Carbon Leaders KLD 400 Social Catholic Values Sustainable Impact ESG Select ESG Focus Women's Leadership Empowering Women HPI ACWI ESG Leaders ACWI SRI ACWI Low Carbon Target ACWI Low Carbon Leaders KLD 400 Social USA Catholic Values ACWI Sustainable Impact USA ESG Select EAFE ESG Focus World Women's Leadership Japan Empowering Women Japan Human and Physical Investment Nov 2017 Index Review (May Rules)** Actual Turnover- Simulated TurnoverCurrent GICS New GICS* 0.5% 1.1% 10.0% 4.2% 6.6% 1.1% 12.3% 4.7% 9.8% 13.7% 12.1% 16.8%
2.1% 1.5% 10.0% 4.2% 7.6% 6.6% 12.3% 8.0% 10.0% 13.7% 12.1% 16.8% Simulated TurnoverCurrent GICS Simulated TurnoverNew GICS* 2.4% 4.0% 3.9% 6.0% ACWI ESG Leaders and ACWI SRI have simulated additional turnover of +1.5% and +2.1%, respectively, upon application of the May Annual Index Review methodology *Simulated using Dec 1, 2017 data based on initial assessment of company-level GICS changes. Company-level GICS changes may be subject to change; final list of impacted companies will be released on July 2, 2018. **Simulated using May Annual Index Review methodology. 22 ABOUT MSCI For more than 40 years, MSCIs research-based indexes and analytics have helped the worlds leading investors build and manage better portfolios. Clients rely on our offerings for deeper insights into the drivers of performance and risk in their portfolios, broad asset class coverage and innovative research. Our line of products and services includes indexes, analytical models, data, real estate benchmarks and ESG research. MSCI serves 99 of the top 100 largest money managers, according to the most recent P&I ranking. For more information, visit us at www.msci.com. 23 CONTACT US AMERICAS EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA ASIA PACIFIC Americas 1 888 588 4567 * Cape Town + 27 21 673 0100 China North 10800 852 1032 * Atlanta
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