Dynamic Complex Dinosaur Ecosystems Simulation / Modeling Bill Yu

Dynamic Complex Dinosaur Ecosystems Simulation / Modeling Bill Yu

Purpose The purpose of my research project is to create a simulation of a many-species, non-static, many-variable ecosystem According to user preferences, many desired ecosystem simulations will be able to be run. In my case, I am focusing limiting the species to the dinosaurs of the late Cretaceous era Subject / Goals The scope of my project will include hypothetical situations, which

will be applicable to real-life, and possibly a real-world model Based on known facts of the dinosaurs, the user will be able to input unknown or hypothetical facts about dinosaurs and thus create a possible simulation of what could have happened on our Earth in the Cretaceous era Overview

Producer / Predator / Prey dinosaur ecosystem based on the late Cretaceous era with chance factors Consequence algorithm for dinosaur conflicts Trait accumulation Reproduction algorithm for mutations and creations of new species Natural disasters Expected Results I will validate success by the accuracy as represented by the common

behavior of real world ecosystems For example, if there are many carnivores preying on a few herbivores, the expected results in sequence would be: 1 Herbivores are near extinction / are extinct. 2 Carnivores begin to die out. 3 Grass regrows fully. Other Research Cellular Automata Model of Macroevolution: the constant

evolution of a biomass of a multi-species system A Jump-Growth Model for Predator-Prey Dynamics: derivation and application to marine ecosystems: evolution to catch prey, equation to calculate populations Predator-Prey Model: linear rate (Lotka-Volterra), group immunity (Kermack-McKendrick), constant uptake (JacobMonod), carrying maximum capacity (Logistic), self-predation (Ricker's)

Other Research Biomechanics of Running Indicates Endothermy in Bipedal Dinosaurs: energy-size ratio, warm-blooded / endothermic dinosaurs Fossil Record of Predation in Dinosaurs: predatory features, consumption records, chemical analyses

Usage Load the program Use sliders Hit 'Setup' 'Step' for 1 iteration, 'Go' for continuous (adjusted by speed bar at the top) Procedures / Methods

Using NetLogo Accomplishing by building top-down, building simple, then advancing to more advanced functions A complicated simulated system with many variables for the user to control BehaviorSpace for data storage

Timeline Q1 : Basics Predator-prey, herbivore-producer, basic predation, modeling Q2 : Dinosaur focus narrowed late Cretaceous, predation range, additional 2 species, reproduction algorithm, prey selection algorithm, movement algorithm

By the end of the 3rd quarter I will probably have implemented many more dinosaur species. There could be more than one type of producer, water factors, geological factors, natural disasters, and possibly egg-periods where the offspring arrival into the ecosystem simulation is delayed (hatching) Project Testing / Problems Project testing simply consists of running the program and comparing it to the expected results, and finding inconsistencies

with real-life dinosaur simulation possibilities and expected ecosystem results The NetLogo program runs almost exclusively to working programs if it's incomplete, it can not run, instead giving an error Currently, my program runs existing methods without error Algorithms

Grass regrowth Generic consumption Conflict sequence (nearly finished) Predation range Reproduction

Prey selection Natural disaster (developing) Hypothesis Due to the harsh environment of the dinosaur ages, species fluctuations as the result of these powerful beasts' conflicts can cause an imbalance in the ecosystem. Learning from the results given the specific parameters, based on

the populations involved Results 1 Predator / High Energy Gain / High Reproduction Invasive Species Effect

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