Evaluation of the U.S. Government Millennium Challenge ...

Evaluation of the U.S. Government Millennium Challenge ...

Evaluation of the U.S. Government Millennium Challenge Corporation Investing In People Indicators ALLIE BAGNALL DANIEL BELLEFLEUR MARISSA MOMMAERTS EMILY PLAGMAN Objectives & Recommendations Evaluate existing IIP indicators Public Expenditure on Health: keep with supplemental

data Immunization Rates: keep Public Expenditure on Primary Education: keep & amend Girls Primary Education Rate: keep & amend Natural Resources Management: keep, make Child Mortality a main indicator Identify new indicators Body Mass Index Investment in Infrastructure (Roads/Nighttime Lights) Evaluation Criteria

MCCs 7 evaluation criteria 2 additional criteria: Concept Validity Equity Common Data Issues Lack consistent collection methodologies Incentives for false reporting or discrimination Not comparable over time Missing across countries and/or years Unclear processes for smoothing data Interpreted differently across groups Aggregate statistics can mask inequities

1. Public Expenditure on Health Strengths Country ownership, flexibility Broad, input measure Weaknesses Data concerns, incentives for false reporting May not result in output Recommendation Keep, but use with output indicators child mortality and BMI; also use supplemental information

2. Immunization Rates Strengths Proven investment by cost-benefit analysis Reduces child mortality and unnecessary suffering Linked to policy and economic growth Weaknesses Equity: rural vs. urban Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization Recommendation

Keep 3. Public Expenditure on Primary Education Strengths Data-quality criteria Weaknesses Lack of strong link to economic growth Concept validity Recommendation

Keep & adjust: add teacher training/student-to-teacher ratio/repetition rates 4. Girls Primary Education Completion Rate Strengths Data-quality criteria Strong link to economic growth Policy-linked Weaknesses Concept validity Recommendation Combine with girls secondary education enrollment

5a. Natural Resource Management: Eco-Region Protection Strengths Promotes protection of natural environment Weaknesses Dependent on GIS, lacking on-the-ground data Inequitable across countries Data are continuously changing Recommendation Keep

5b. Natural Resource Management: Water and Sanitation Strengths Improves health of beneficiaries Benefits most vulnerable populations Policy linked Weaknesses Difficult to define causality Inequitable across countries Recommendation

Keep 5c. Natural Resource Management: Child Mortality Strengths Overall output measure Many policy links Weaknesses Strongly correlated with other IIP indicators Recommendation

Upgrade to stand-alone indicator Potential New Indicators: Body Mass Index Strengths May be tailored to focus on women or children Simple data collection Weaknesses BMI only useful at extremes Malnutrition not always top policy priority Recommendation

Use Potential New Indicator: Infrastructure (Roads) Strengths Meets all MCC data criteria Creates access to services and economic growth Policy-linked Weaknesses Income and cross-country biases

Causality Potential New Indicators: Infrastructure (Nighttime Lights) Strengths Insight into poverty distribution Equity Weaknesses Improved daytime/household light imagery Disaggregation difficult Recommendation

Use Other Potential New Indicators Occupational Training and Non-formal Education Presence and Makeup of Social Safety Nets Additional indicator to measure a governments commitment to womens empowerment (Ruling Justly)

Recommendations: Indicator Basket Public Expenditure on Health Consider supplemental data when possible Immunization Rates Public Expenditure on Primary Education Repetition rates, trained teachers Girls Education Primary Completion & Secondary Enrollment Natural Resource Management Child Mortality Body Mass Index Investment in Infrastructure

Roads Nighttime lights Thanks! Questions? Daniel Allie Emily Marissa

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