Financial Goals and the Investment Process

Financial Goals and the Investment Process

Personal Finance: Another Perspective Investing 1: Before you Invest Updated 2019/10/17 1 Objectives A. Know what to do before you invest B. Understand the principles of successful investing C. Understand the major asset classes and their risk and return history Note: For a general overview of how we teach investing, please see Beginning Investing Overview. 2 Your Personal Financial Plan Section XII: Investment Plan Includes your detailed Investment Plan (you can copy an outline from Investment Plan Template

(LT5A) and instructions are TT5B. Your Investment Plan includes: I. What are your risk and return goals and objectives? II. What are your investment guidelines and constraints? III. What is your Investment Policy, your Plans and Strategies? IV. When will you Evaluate, Modify, and Communicate results to accountability partners? 3 Your Financial Plan (continued) What are your proposed investments and allocations, your plans and strategies? Include copies of your proposed investments from Morningstar on a minimum of 4 financial assets for your: Emergency Fund Core Financial Asset(s) Diversification Asset(s) Opportunistic Asset(s) (only if you want) Include Expected Return Simulation (LT27) and Investment Process spreadsheet (LT13) 4

Teaching Investments Please note that my teaching is different Most textbooks take a financial assets approach we teach principles Most teach about assets we teach how to build a portfolio Be patient! Our framework for teaching is: Day 1 (14) Principles of investing/before you invest Day 2 (15) Creating your Investment Plan Day 3 (16) Building your investment portfolio Day 4 (17) Selecting your financial assets Day 5 (18) Portfolio monitoring and rebalancing Day 6 (19) Speaker and summary 5 Investment Assignments for Today Investments 1: Before you Invest 1. Copy Investment Plan Example Template (LT5A). 2. Add your information and complete the introduction to each of the four sections 3. Take Risk Tolerance Test (LT16). Determine the

type of investor you are: very conservative, conservative, moderate, aggressive, very aggressive 4. Develop your preliminary asset allocation targets, i.e., your weights of stocks, bonds, and cash in your portfolio for before retirement and after retirement from your risk tolerance test. 6 Investment Assignments for Today (continued) Investments 4: Bond Basics 1. Bond Volatility. Open Return Simulation for Asset Classes (LT23). Look at the volatility for bonds compared to other asset classes in the tab labeled Charts when you push F9 (calculate) 2. Bond Returns. Open Expected Return Simulation and Benchmarks (LT27). Go to the tab labeled Returns and Risk. Review the 1, 5, 10, 25, etc. year return for bonds compared to other asset classes. Are they more or less volatile? Do you know why market rates and bond prices are inverse (see Investment Expenses - Bond Prices tab)? 3. Think about what percentage of your portfolio should be in bonds from your risk tolerance results

7 A. Questions to Ask Before you Invest What should you do before you start investing? Is there a priority to paying bills? Are there certain things you should never do without? Are their other bills more important than investing? Is there a purpose to investing? 8 Before You Invest: The Hourglass Top 1. Are your priorities in order and are you square with the Lord? 2. Do you have adequate auto, health and life insurance? 3. Are you out of high-interest rate credit card and consumer debt? 4. Have you written down your personal vision and goals, do you live on a budget, and do you have a well-written investment plan? If you can answer these affirmatively, you are ready to invest! 9

Before you Invest (continued) What does the top of the hourglass do? It helps you keep your priorities in order And what should those priorities be? God Family Personal responsibility Your personal vision, goals, budget, and a well-written Investment Plan 10 B. Understand the Principles of Successful Investing Is there one right way to invest? No. There are multiple ways and multiple methods depending on your personal vision, goals and budget

The key is for you to know yourself, what you are trying to accomplish, and follow the principles of successful investing Is there one right way to teach investing? No. But while there are many different ways, the principles should be the same. 11 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) How have most equity investors done? Each year, DALBAR puts out an annual book on Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior. It discusses how average equity fund investors have done versus benchmarks over the past 20 years.

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Period 1994-2013 1995-2014 1996-2015 1997-2016 1998-2017 1999-2018 * Dalbar 2013-2019 Investor Index Returns* Returns Difference 3.7% 11.1%

-7.4% 5.2% 9.9% -4.7% 4.7% 8.2% -3.5% 4.8% 7.7% -2.9% 5.3% 7.2% -1.9% 3.9% 5.6% -1.7% 12 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) How have most bond investors done? According to DALBAR, bond investors have done equally poorly versus the bond benchmark over the past 20 years.

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Period 1994-2013 1995-2014 1996-2015 1997-2016 1998-2017 1999-2018

Investor Index Returns* Returns Difference 0.7% 7.7% -7.0% 0.8% 6.2% -5.4% 0.5% 5.3% -4.8% 0.5% 5.0% -4.5% 0.4% 4.6% -4.2% 0.2% 4.6% -4.4% * Dalbar QAIB 2013-2019, www.dalbar.com, ** Estimate 13

Principles for Successful Investing (continued) How have most asset allocation investors done? According to DALBAR, asset allocation investors have done equally poorly versus the bond benchmark over the past 20 years. Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Period 1994-2013 1995-2014

1996-2015 1997-2016 1998-2017 1999-2019 Investor Index Returns* Returns** Difference 1.9% 9.7% -7.8% 2.5% 8.4% -5.9% 2.1% 7.0% -4.9% 2.3% 6.6% -4.3% 2.6% 6.2% -3.6% 2.9% 5.2%

-2.3% * Dalbar QAIB 2013-2019, www.dalbar.com, ** Estimate of 60% S&P 500 and 40% Barclays Aggregate 14 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) Elder Dallin H. Oaks commented: We live in a complex society, where even the simplest principle can be exquisitely difficult to apply. I admire investors who are determined not to obtain income or investment profits from transactions that add to the sum total of sin and misery in the world. But they will have difficulty finding investments that meet this high standard. Such complexities make it difficult to prescribe firm rules. We must rely on teaching correct principles, which each member should personally apply to govern his or her own circumstances (italics added, Dallin H. Oaks, Brothers Keeper, Ensign, Nov. 1986, 20). 15

Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 1. Know yourself Know your vision, goals and plans Have well-written and thought-out vision, goals, and plans Know your budget Live within your means, save 20% and invest Know your ability to tolerate risk Know what kind of investor you are Invest accordingly Develop a sleep-well portfolio based on principles you can depend on for a lifetime so that you can sleep well at night 16 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) Watch overconfidence Men trade 45% more than women Their annualized returns were 2.7% less Single men trade 67% more than single women Their annualized returns were 1.4% less Most investors have significantly (> 5% a year) underperformed the market over the last 20 years

(DALBARs Annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior 2018) Watch on-line trading Before on-line, investors beat the market by 1.9% Afterwards, they underperformed by 3.6% Carla Fried, The Problem with your Investment Approach, Business 2.0, November 2003, p. 146 17 Principles of Successful Investing (continued) 2. Seek, receive and act on the Spirits guidance Carlos E. Asay said, When the Spirit is with us, we can think thoughts weve never thought before, we can say words weve never said before, we can perform beyond our natural abilities. That power is related to truth, to the scriptures, to the stirring of the Spirit within. And the power wont come unless were actively courting the influence of the Holy Ghost (Scriptures and Sunday Classes, Ensign, January 1986). 18

Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 3. Understand Risk Risk is inherent in all investing activities There are lots of different types of risk Inflation, business, interest rate, financial, market, political and regulatory, exchange rate, call, and liquidity risk Invest at a risk level you are comfortable with Find that risk level Taking a risk tolerance test may help. Take A Risk Tolerance Test (LT16) to get a sense on how much risk you can tolerate 19 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 4. Stay diversified Always invest in different asset classes and assets Diversification is your key defense against risk Make sure you understand the risks of each and every asset class you invest in Its a risky place out there. Be prepared! Remember that the numbers you see for specific asset class performance are from diversified portfolios, not single assets!

Use Return Simulation Worksheet (LT23) to see the effects of diversification 20 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 5. Invest low cost and tax-efficiently Control what you can. You cannot control returns, but you can control your risk, costs, fees, and taxes A $1 saved is more than a $1 earned Lower cost index funds tended to outperform Defer or eliminate taxes as much as possible Mutual funds distribute 90% of all earnings each year (that you must pay taxes on) Invest tax-efficiently so you dont have to pay more taxes each April 21 Source: Jason Karceski, Miles Livingston, Edward ONeal, Mutual Fund Brokerage Commissions, January 2004, p. 12. 22 Source: Jason Karceski, Miles Livingston, Edward ONeal, Mutual Fund Brokerage Commissions, January 2004, p. 12.

Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 6. Invest long-term Avoid short-term and day trading Its expensive and generates transactions costs and taxes Invest wisely There are no get-rich-quick schemes that work. Stay at least partly in the market Taking money out of the market or not continuing to save and invest stops your progress 23 Trading Costs and Returns 24 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 7. If you want to invest in individual assets, know what you invest in and who you invest with When investing in individual assets, do your homework

Know what you are investing in Know who you are investing with Be aware of the environment in which the company operates Be very careful and invest wisely 25 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 8. Monitor portfolio performance Measure performance. President Thomas S. Monson stated: When performance is measured, performance improves. Where performance is measured and reported, the rate of improvement accelerates (General Conference reports, 1970). How can you know how you are doing if you dont check your performance against some benchmark? Interestingly, most investors have underperformed the market benchmarks over the last 20 years (DALBARs Annual Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior 2018) 26

Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 9. Dont waste too much time, money, and energy trying to beat the market, unless you have a lot of time, money, and energy It is very difficult, expensive, and time consuming to try and beat the market If you want to trade, trade tax-efficiently and in tax-deferred accounts 27 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 10. Invest only with high quality, licensed, and reputable people and institutions When help is needed, dont be afraid to get help. But get good help from good people consistent with the principles discussed and compare their performance to your benchmarks after taxes (and to a passive portfolio) Use the best resources available Know how those resources are compensated 28

Principles for Successful Investing (continued) 11. Develop a good investment plan consistent with your vision, budget, and these principles, and follow it closely Think it through and write it wisely Its your roadmap to success If you write it wisely and invest accordingly, it will save you much heartache in the future And you will likely achieve your personal vision and goals 29 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) Principles Doctrines Know yourself, your goals and vision Identity Seek, receive and act on guidance Obedience Understand risk (there is lots of it) Stewardship Stay diversified Accountability

Invest low-cost and tax efficiently Stewardship Invest long-term Stewardship Know what you invest in Agency Monitor performance vs. benchmarks Accountability Dont waste time Stewardship Invest with good people and firms Stewardship Develop a good Plan (IPS) and follow it Stewardship 30 Principles for Successful Investing (continued) From obedience to consecration I am a child of a Creator (identity), living worthy of the Spirit (obedience), striving to understand myself and my risk tolerance (agency), and learning to understand financial markets and instruments (accountability). I am developing my investing talents carefully (stewardship), so I can invest my resources wisely (agency), to earn the return I am expecting

(stewardship), to accomplish my personal mission and individual and family vision and goals. 31 C. Understand Asset Classes and their History What are asset classes? Asset classes are broad categories of investments with specific (and similar) risk and return characteristics How are they distinguished? Asset classes are distinguished by characteristics specific to particular groups of securities, such as type of financial instrument, market capitalization, maturity, geographic location, etc. What are the major asset classes? Cash and cash equivalents, fixed income, and equities 32 Cash and Cash Equivalents Major Goal: Liquidity and to preserve capital Cash includes CDs, money market funds, T-bills, and

commercial paper, etc. with a fixed return Cash includes: Money market funds, CDs, short-term bond funds, short-term investments, i.e., treasury bills, savings bonds, loans to the government, commercial paper, loans to corporations Advantages Liquidity, stability, little risk of losing principal Good investment for money you plan to use in less than 3-5 years and dont want to take risks 33 Cash and Cash Equivalents (continued) Disadvantages Less attractive as medium-to-long-term investments (> 5 years) Returns on cash and cash equivalents are unlikely to keep up with inflation Thoughts on Cash: Cash is great for liquidityespecially for your Emergency Fund However, returns on cash are unlikely to keep up with taxes and inflation Use cash for liquidity and some diversification,

but realize that this asset class will add little to performance 34 Fixed Income (or Bonds) Major Goal: Income and returns in excess of inflation Fixed income includes: Taxable bonds: U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds and agency issues (bonds issued by U.S. government agencies, like Ginnie Mae). Tax-free bonds: Revenue or general obligation bonds issued by local or state governments Types of fixed-income asset classes: Short-term bonds/bond funds (mature in < 3 years) Intermediate-term bonds/bond funds (3-10 years) Long-term bonds/junk bonds/bond funds (10 or more years) 35 Fixed-income (continued) Types of fixed-income asset classes (continued) Inflation Protected securities - Securities whose yield is linked to inflation

U.S. Government Savings bonds EE and I bonds Bond mutual funds. These funds buy and sell bonds before they mature. You are buying a share in portfolio of bonds in a changing portfolio. Advantages Greater return than cash, but greater risk Good diversification as bonds move differently than stocks 36 Fixed-income (continued) Disadvantages Returns historically lower than stocks, and susceptible to interest rate and other risks Generally, best as part of an overall portfolio as generally do not provide enough growth Thoughts on fixed income Fixed interest and the future principle Income and capital may be subject to taxes The longer the bonds maturity, the higher the yield. The lower the borrowers credit, the higher the yield The price of bonds fluctuate with changes in interest rates

37 Equities (or Stocks) Major Goal: Provide growth and earn returns in excess of inflation. A share is ownership in a businesses earnings and assets Types of equity asset classes Capitalization: Large, mid, and small Type: Growth, blend, and value Geographic area: US, international, global and emerging markets 38 Equities (continued) What is market capitalization? It is one measure of the size of a company, and is calculated by multiplying the market price by the number of shares outstanding

Large-cap (capitalization) stocks Stocks with a market capitalization >$10bn in the US, and smaller capitalizations for international Generally the largest, most well established companies in the US, with a history of sales and earnings as well as notable market share These are generally mature corporations with a long track record of steady growth and dividends 39 Equities (continued) Mid-cap or mid-capitalization stocks Stocks with capitalization between $2-10 billion These tend to grow faster than large cap companies, and are generally less volatile than small cap Mid-caps generally perform similar to the smallcap asset class. Small-cap or small capitalization stocks Stocks with a market capitalization < $2 billion These are smaller, sometimes newer, US and global

companies that are still developing They are subject to greater volatility, but are expected to grow faster than bigger companies 40 Equities (continued) What are growth, value and blend stocks? Growth stocks These are companies whose earnings are expected to grow very rapidly. Frequently these are companies developing new technologies or new ways of doing things Value stocks These are inexpensive companies (determined by low PE and P/BV ratios) that have potential for good long-term return through appreciation and dividends Blend stocks These are a both value and growth companies

41 Equities (continued) What are International/Global/Emerging Market stocks? Funds that contain a mixture of both U.S. and foreign stocks are called global funds, funds from outside the US are called international funds; and funds with stocks from the developing countries are called emerging market funds These can be of any size (small-cap, large-cap), any type (value, growth) and from anywhere International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, political instability, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. 42 Equities

(continued) Stock Mutual Funds Funds that own groups or types of companies. You are buying a share in a portfolio of stocks You are responsible for paying taxes on all distributions by the mutual fund, which are taxed at your levelnot the fund level Advantages Offer highest return of the major asset classes Growth and value stocks tend to perform in alternating cyclesit makes sense to own both Good investment for long-term investingthey have consistently beat inflation over the long-term 43 Equities (continued) Disadvantages Offer less stability of principal than other asset

classes, and subject to short-term price fluctuations If investing for less than 3-5 years, only a small portion of your investments should be in stocks Thoughts on Stocks Stocks have given the highest consistent returns of any asset class, although with the highest risk While volatile in the short-term, they have continued to deliver returns in excess of inflation Through broad diversification, you can reduce some of the risk of this asset class 44 Asset Class Summary 2019 MBA 620/Fin418/Fin200 Financial Planning (2/22/19) Cash and Cash Equivalents Fixed Income Equity Taxable or Tax-free CDs, MMA, Government

Asset Classes: MMMFs Bills/Funds Description: Short-term interest Short-term interest bearing bearing investments from investments of the banks, mutual government, fund companies agencies, and and public municipalities companies Taxable or Tax-free Short-term Intermediate Long-term Bonds/Funds Bonds/Funds Bonds/Funds Bonds/funds Bonds/funds

Bonds/funds which invest in which invest in which invest in short-term intermediate-term long-term instruments with a instruments with a instruments with a maturity of < 5 maturity of 3 - 10 maturity of 10 - 30 years and can be years and can be years and can be either taxable or either taxable or either taxable or tax-free tax-free tax-free Intl./Global International/ Global Funds All maturity bonds/funds which invest in bonds of companies domiciled outside

the US. Global includes both international and US bonds. Includes: Bonds and funds of short-term US Treasuries, US Savings, corporate, municipal and agency bonds Bonds and Funds of long-term US Treasuries, US Savings, corporate, municipal, agency and junk bonds Provides income and returns

generally in excess of inflation CDs, money market funds, commercial paper and funds which invest in these Bonds and funds of Treasury bills, US Savings bonds, municipal bonds, etc. Bonds and funds of intermediateterm US Treasuries, US Savings, corporate, municipal and agency Providesbonds income

Low returns, and little risk of losing principal since the borrowers have good credit and loans are for a short period. Low returns and little risk of losing principal since the government can always print new money. More risk with agencies and municipalities Taxes: Interest is fully taxable and capital gains at preferential rates

Interest from Treasuries state tax-free, muni's Federal tax free, and muni's from your state are both state and federal tax-free Small Cap/Funds US stocks with a market capitalization less than $3 bn. Large Mid Cap/Funds Cap/Funds US stocks with a US stocks with a market market capitalization of capitalization of

between $2 and >$10 bn, $10mn, considered the considered the up blue chip and and coming larger companies companies Bonds and Funds of al maturity international companies Small cap value, growth, blend, and funds that invest in these types. Intermediate cap value, growth, blend, and funds that invest in these

types. Provides income and returns generally in excess of inflation These stocks are generally smaller, less followed, and tend to grow faster than larger stocks International/Global International / Emerging Domestic/Intl. Global Funds Markets/Funds REITs/Funds All capitalization All capitalization All capitalization stocks that are stocks that are stocks that

domiciled outside domiciled in generally own and the US. Global countries not operate income includes both considered producing real international and Developed by the estate, ranging US stocks World Bank/IMF from offices and apartments to hospitals and shopping centers Large cap value, growth, blend, and funds that invest in these types. All capitalization stocks and funds that invest in these

types All capitalization stocks and funds that invest in these types All capitalization stocks and funds that invest in these types These stocks are generally larger than small-cap and smaller than large-cap, somewhere in between Lower returns and Lower returns and Interest rate and Interest rate and Because these Risk is generally little risk of losing risk of losing other risks as other risks as

stocks are smaller between small and principle from non- principle from non- bond's principle is bond's principle is and less welllarge-cap stocks government government not fixed as bond not fixed as bond capitalized, they bonds as terms bonds as terms price fluctuates price fluctuates are considerably are generally short are still somewhat with interest rates with interest rates more risky than short larger-cap stocks Least risky of all equities. These stocks are generally larger, better run, and less volatile stocks These are considered the least risky of all

equities, although risks remain, particularly with individual stocks Returns can be enhanced through investing across borders-correlations are not as strong Returns generally enhanced through investing across small country borders--lower correlations Offers exposure to real estate without having to own any individual properties

Much risk can be diversified away due to investing across borders; however, still risky as subject to different risks These tend to be among the riskiest of asset classes due to currency, interest rate and other domestic risks Tends to move with real estate markets generally, very interest-rate sensitive Interest from

Treasuries state tax-free and muni's Federally tax free. Other interest is taxable at ordinary rates Fully taxable, with dividends and long-term capital gains at preferential rates Fully taxable, with dividends and long-term capital gains at preferential rates. Fully taxable, with dividends and long-term capital gains at preferential rates

Fully taxable, with dividends and long-term capital gains at preferential rates Key Advantages Good for liquidity Good for liquidity Provides income and stability of and stability of and returns and returns principle principle generally in excess generally in excess of inflation of inflation Key Risks Domestic Interest from Treasuries state

tax-free and muni's Federally tax free. Other interest is taxable at ordinary rates Interest from Treasuries state tax-free and muni's Federally tax free. Other interest is taxable at ordinary rates Internation/global bonds are generally fully taxable, sometimes taxed both internationally and domestically Fully taxable, with

dividends and long-term capital gains at preferential rates Fully taxable, with dividends and long-term capital gains at preferential rates Returns & Risk: (ending 2018) 10 Year Return 0.3% 4.3% 12.7% 12.7% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 10 year Risk 0.2% 14.1% 18.9%

13.6% 18.5% 22.7% 22.7% 25 Year Return 2.4% 7.0% 10.3% 8.9% 6.9% 8.0% 25 year Risk 0.6% 11.6% 20.1% 14.4% 16.0% 22.4% How to Invest: Banks, brokerage, www.treasurydire Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, Banks, brokerage, mutual fund ct.gov, banks, or mutual fund or mutual fund or mutual fund

or mutual fund or mutual fund or mutual fund or mutual fund or mutual fund or mutual fund or mutual fund companies brokerage mutual companies companies companies companies companies companies companies companies companies companies fund companies 45 Asset Class Risk and Return History What is risk?

Is it the risk of losing all your money? Is it the risk of losing principle? It is the risk of not achieving a specific holding period return? How is it measured? Historically, government securities were considered risk-free Later, analysts started using variance (or standard deviation squared) as a better measure of risk. Currently, investors use Beta, which is a measure of how the stock moves with the market 46 Return What is return? It is the change in the value of an asset or portfolio over a specific period, which includes dividends, distributions, or interest received during that period. How is it calculated? Your holding period return is: HPR = (PriceEndPriceBegin+Div./Distrib.)/PriceBegin It includes all dividends and distributions,

including those received and reinvested To calculate after-tax returns, deduct the taxes to be paid from your dividend and distribution amounts 47 Return (continued) Why study asset class performance? We know the future will not be like the past? Gordon B. Hinckley stated: All of us need to be reminded of the past. It is from history that we gain knowledge which can save us from repeating mistakes and on which we can build for the future (Reach with a Rescuing Hand, New Era, July 1997, 4). Note: Data are from Ibbottson Associates for 1925-2014 periods, and from Bloomberg for after 2014. 48 Return: Asset Class Returns

49 Returns: S&P 500 1 Year Returns 50 Returns: S&P 500 10 Year Returns 51 51 Questions Any questions on asset class risk and return history? (see Return Simulation Worksheet (LT23)) 52 Review of Objectives A. Do you know what to do before you invest? B. Do you understand the principles of successful investing? C. Do you understand the various asset classes

and their risk and return history? 53 Case Study #1 Data Bill wants to know how much he will need to save each month to have $1 million in savings when he retires in 30 years. Calculations Assuming Bill can earn an 6.5% return on his investment, how much must he save each month Application What assets would you recommend Bill use to save? 54 Case Study #1 Answer Calculations for $1mn in 30 years Set your calculator to 12 payments per year (monthly) N = 30, I = 6.5%, PV = 0, FV = $1,000,000, P/Yr = 12

Solve for Bills monthly payment? Bill would need to save $904.01 per month Recommendations Bill could use any number of investment assets, including stocks, bonds, cash, mutual funds, etc. Because he is just starting out, I would encourage him to consider the use of inexpensive, no-load mutual funds as investment vehicles. 55 Case Study #2 Data Last year you purchased 100 shares of MSAM Corporation for $40 per share. Over the past 12 months MSAMs price has gone up to $45 per share, and you received a dividend of $1 per share. Calculations What was your total rate of return on your investment in the MSAM stock?

56 Case Study #2 Answer Calculations This can be solved either on a total portfolio basis or on a per share basis. Total Portfolio (($45*100 - $40 *100) + 1*100) / $40*100 = ? Your return is 15.0% Per Share basis (($45 - $40) + 1) / $40 = ? Your return is 15.0% 57 Case Study #3 Data Your investment in MSAM stock was so successful that you decided to hold it for 5 more years. Remember, you purchased 100 shares for $40 per share. Unfortunately, the price of MSAM stock has not risen; it is back to where you purchased it. The good news is that you earned $1 per share for five years. Calculations

What was your annualized total rate of return? Application Compared to a bank account earning 2.25% over this same period, how did your stock do? 58 Case Study #3 Answer Calculations Your annualized rate of return is your return for the total period, annualized, i.e., taking the geometric return. Your total return for 5 years is: (($40*100 - $40*100) + 5*100) / ($40*100) = ? 12.5% Annualizing for 5 years gives: Geometric return = (1 + .125)^(1/5) = 2.38% Average return = 12.5% / 5 = 2.5% Using either method, it performed better 59

Case Study #4 Data Sam recently purchased a bond with a 10 year maturity for $1,000 which pays annual interest of $100. Calculations What interest rate is Sam receiving? If interest rates for ten year bonds today are 5%: How much can Sam sell his bond for today? How much could he sell the bond for tomorrow if interest rates move up to 10%? Applications Based on your calculations, what is the relationship between interest rates and the value between bonds? 60 Case Study #4 Answer Calculations The bonds current yield is $100/$1000 = 10% At 5% Sam can sell his bond for: N=10, I=5%, PMT=100, FV=1,000, PV= ? $1,386.09

At 12% Sam can sell his bond for: N=10, I=12%, PMT=100, FV=1,000,PV=? $887.00 This implies a negative relationship between bond prices and interest rates. In other words, as rates increase (fall) bond prices fall (rise) 61 Case Study #5 Data Ryan is 35 years old, and took the Risk Tolerance test from the teaching tools (Teaching Tool 16). He determined that he was moderate in terms of risk. Application Based on the rule of thumb of his age in bonds and the results from the Risk Tolerance test, which of the following most likely represents Ryans preferred asset allocation (assume his emergency fund is included in cash and bonds): A. 35% cash, 40% large cap, 25% bonds B. 25% cash, 35% large cap, 25% small cap, 15% international C. 10% cash, 25% bonds, 50% large cap, 15% small cap

D. 15% bonds, 30% large cap, 30% small cap, 25% international 62 Case Study #5 Answer Ryans preferred allocation would likely be C for the following reasons: Portfolio A has too much exposure to cash and bonds. Portfolio B has too large an allocation to international and small cap (40%), both much more risky. Portfolio C is more consistent with your risk exposure, i.e., 35% in bonds and cash, and has some (limited) exposure to small caps Portfolio D has too little exposure to bonds and cash, and too much small cap and international. 63 Case Study #6 Data Assume the same information from Problem 5, but now

Ryans result (age 35) from his Risk Tolerance test (Learning Tool 16) was aggressive in terms of risk. Application (a) Based on the same rule of thumb, which of the following most likely represents Ryans asset allocation: A. 35% cash, 40% large cap, 25% bonds B. 25% cash, 35% large cap, 25% small cap, 15% international C. 10% cash, 25% bonds, 50% large cap, 15% small cap D. 15% bonds, 30% large cap, 30% small cap, 25% international (b) What would his allocation be if his results were very aggressive? 64 Case Study #6 Answer (a) The preferred allocation for aggressive would be B. Portfolio A has too much exposure to cash for his risk level Portfolio B is recommended. It has a larger allocation to international and small cap (40%), a lesser allocation to bonds and cash, and is

more consistent with his risk results Portfolio C has too much (35%) in bonds and cash, and likely not enough to the riskier assets Portfolio D has too little exposure to bonds and cash, and likely too much small cap and international. 65 Case Study #6 Answer (b) The preferred allocation for very aggressive would be D. Portfolio A has too much exposure to cash for his risk level, but a good allocation to small cap (more risky) Portfolio B has a large allocation to international and small cap (40%), consistent with his risk results, but too much cash Portfolio C has too much (35%) in bonds and cash, and likely not enough to riskier assets Portfolio D has less exposure to bonds and cash, and much more small cap and international (55%), consistent with very aggressive risk 66

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