Governor Kaine's Proposed 2008-2010 Budget - Economic Outlook ...

Governor Kaine's Proposed 2008-2010 Budget - Economic Outlook ...

Governor Kaines Proposed 2008-2010 Budget Economic Outlook & Revenue Forecast A Briefing for the Senate Finance, House Finance, and House Appropriations Committees December 17, 2007 Jody M. Wagner Secretary of Finance Commonwealth of Virginia www.finance.virginia.gov Outline Fiscal Year 2007 Year-end Revenue Results August Interim Revenue Forecast November Revenue Collections U.S. and Virginia Economic Outlook December Revenue Forecast Key Risks to the Outlook Proposed Budget Actions 1 Fiscal Year 2007 Year-end Revenue Results 2 Fiscal Year 2007 Revenues Finished $234.4 Million (1.5%)

Below Forecast Summary of Fiscal Year 2007 Revenue Collections (millions of dollars) Major Source Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Individual Sales * Corporate Wills (Recordation) Insurance All Other Revenue Forecast $ 8,517.5 2,788.4 (1,337.1) 9,968.8 Actual $ 8,565.5 2,782.0 (1,559.8) 9,787.6 Variance Dollars Percent $ 48.0 0.6 % (6.4) (0.2) (222.7) 16.7 (181.2) (1.8) 3,092.9 901.4 554.4 384.6 898.1 3,049.1 879.6 582.9

384.9 881.7 (43.8) (21.8) 28.5 0.3 (16.4) $ 15,800.2 $ 15,565.8 $ (234.4) 27.3 406.3 360.8 27.6 434.9 357.8 0.3 28.6 (3.0) Total General Fund $ 16,594.6 $ 16,386.1 $ (208.5) Total Revenues * ABC Profits Lottery Profits Transfers (1.4) (2.4) 5.1 0.1 (1.8) (1.5) % 0.9 7.0 (0.8) (1.3) %

Annual Growth 6.4 % 11.6 21.6 5.6 8.4 1.4 (16.1) 3.0 7.4 4.9 % (8.3) (4.2) (6.2) 4.4 % * Not adjusted for the Accelerated Sales Tax (AST) program. Adjusted sales tax growth was 2.7 percent compared to a forecast of 4.2 percent. Adjusted total revenue growth was 3.8 percent compared to a forecast of 5.4 percent. 3 August Interim Revenue Forecast 4 The Interim Forecast Was Based On A Complete Revenue Forecasting Process Review The August 2007 interim revenue forecast was based on the updated economic outlook for Virginia as approved by the Governors Advisory Board of Economists (GABE). GABE was presented with the May 2007 standard economic outlook for Virginia, which was based on the May 2007 Global Insight standard forecast for the U.S. - A majority of the Board supported slight upward revisions to employment and income growth. The interim forecast also incorporated input from leaders in the residential housing industry and was reviewed by the Governors Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE).

5 The Combined Shortfall In Fiscal Year 2007 Of $234.4 Million With The Fiscal Year 2008 Forecast Reduction Of $406.7 Million Presented An Estimated Biennial Shortfall Of $641.1 Million August Interim Revenue Forecast Difference from Official (millions of dollars) August Forecast Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Sales Corporate Wills Insurance All Other Total GF Revenue % of Official Forecast Annual % Change Revenue Base Economic Base FY08 34.7 125.7 -282.0 -119.1 -68.7 -24.4 -15.0 -57.8 -406.7 -2.5% FY09 31.2 139.7 -302.7 -133.3 -99.0 -89.0 -11.0 -18.4 -482.4 -2.8% FY10 68.9

155.9 -256.0 -137.1 -102.1 -75.7 -11.2 -9.4 -366.7 -2.0% FY08 3.0% 3.1% FY09 3.7% 5.7% FY10 6.5% 6.5% Note: Economic base growth rates adjust for the repeal of the estate tax and the transfer of one-third of prior year insurance company premiums and $0.03 of recordation tax to transportation beginning in FY09. 6 November Revenue Collections 7 Year-to-date Revenue Collections Through November Are Running Very Close To The Interim Forecast Summary of Fiscal Year 2008 Revenue Collections July through November Major Source Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Individual As a % of Total Revenues 56.7 % 18.9 (10.8)

64.9 Sales Corporate Wills (Recordation) Insurance All Other Revenue (a) Total (a) 19.6 4.5 3.3 2.5 5.3 100.0 % Percent Growth over Prior Year YTD August 2007 Actual Estimate Variance 5.0 % 6.1 % (1.1) % 13.4 8.8 4.6 (7.5) 10.5 (18.0) 6.8 6.2 0.6 2.8 (26.7) (15.3) 5.8 5.1 3.2 % 2.8 (17.4) (9.0) 2.9 (4.4) 3.0 %

0.0 (9.3) (6.3) 2.9 9.5 0.2 % (a) Adjusted for nongeneral funds interest earnings for October and November that will be transferred in January. Not adjusted for the transfer, all other revenue growth is 11.7 percent and total general fund revenue growth is 3.6 percent. 8 U.S. and Virginia Economic Outlook 9 Over The Forecast Horizon, The October U.S. Forecast Is For Slower Growth Than Projected In The Interim Forecast Tight credit conditions are expected to result in a deeper downturn in housing and more cautious consumers. Key U.S. Economic Indicators Interim vs. October Standard Forecast (annual percent change) 06 Fiscal Year 07 08 09 10 Real GDP Interim (May '07) Standard (Oct '07) 3.4 3.2 2.5 2.1 2.3 2.1

3.2 2.5 3.2 2.9 Consumer Spending Interim (May '07) Standard (Oct '07) 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.4 3.1 2.8 Employment Interim (May '07) Standard (Oct '07) 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.3 Personal Income Interim (May '07) Standard (Oct '07)

5.7 6.2 5.8 6.4 5.5 5.8 5.6 4.7 6.0 5.3 Source: Global Insight 10 The October Standard Forecast For Virginia Mirrored The Interim Forecast Virginia is expected to outperform the nation over the forecast horizon. Key Virginia Economic Indicators Interim vs. October Standard Forecast (annual percent change) Fiscal Year 06 07 08 09 10 Employment Interim (May '07) Standard (Oct '07) 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1

1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 Personal Income Interim (May '07) Standard (Oct '07) 5.9 6.4 5.3 5.2 5.6 5.6 6.0 5.9 6.2 6.2 Wages & Salaries Interim (May '07) Standard (Oct '07) 6.4 6.2 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.2 6.2 6.0 Average Wage Interim (May '07) Standard (Oct '07)

4.2 4.0 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.1 3.7 4.3 4.1 11 December Revenue Forecast 12 The December Revenue Forecast Reflects The Updated Economic Outlook And First Quarter Collections For Fiscal Year 2008 Over the next three fiscal years, the interim forecast for total general fund revenues has been revised up by 0.1 percent from the interim forecast. Withholding and sales tax collections (75 percent of total revenues) -revenue sources most closely tied to Virginia economic activity -- are marginally adjusted. The revised forecast for the three most volatile revenue sources -nonwithholding, corporate, and recordation -- is only 0.5 percent above the interim estimate for fiscal year 2008 through fiscal year 2010. 13 Withholding Has Been Revised Down From The Interim Forecast The withholding revenue model is based on a relationship to wages and salaries in Virginia. FY07 actual FY08 forecast

FY09 forecast FY10 forecast Wage & Salary Growth 5.4% 5.5% 5.2% 6.0% Withholding Growth 6.4% 5.6% 6.2% 6.0% Given that year-to-date collections through November are trailing the annual estimate, the withholding forecast has been revised downward slightly. Revision: FY08 -$49.1 million, FY09 -$35.1 million, FY10 -$56.6 million 14 The Outlook For Sales Tax Collections Is Essentially Unchanged Over The Forecast Horizon The sales revenue model is based on a relationship to personal income in Virginia. FY07 actual FY08 forecast FY09 forecast FY10 forecast Personal Income Growth 5.2% 5.6% 5.9% 6.2% Sales Tax Growth * 2.7% 2.8% 5.3% 5.7%

* FY07 adjusted for the end of the Accelerated Sales Tax Program in FY06. Growth in personal income is near the interim forecast. Actual growth for the first quarter of FY08 was 3.1%. The negative wealth effect from the downturn in housing and higher energy prices have hurt consumer confidence, leading to persistent weakness in collections. Revision: FY08 +$0.0 million, FY09 -$1.2 million, FY10 +$4.9 million 15 Individual Nonwithholding Has Been Revised Upward From The Interim Forecast Healthy growth in first quarter collections and slightly stronger growth in financial markets and non-wage income result in upward revisions over the next three years. Revision: FY08 +$33.0 million, FY09 +$10.6 million, FY10 +$43.9 million Final Payments and the S&P 500 Percent Change 60 FORECAST HISTORY 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50

FY88 FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY00 Final Payments *S&P 500 growth is for the prior calendar year, i.e., FY07 is CY06. FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 S&P 500 16 The Forecast For Individual Refunds Has Been Revised Down Slightly Over The Forecast Horizon In the interim revenue forecast, individual refunds were adjusted to reflect: The higher refund base due to overpayment of estimated income taxes by individuals who are not adjusting payments as their incomes fall. The increasing cost of the land preservation tax credit. A double-digit decline in the first quarter of fiscal year 2008 and updated withholding tax estimates suggest a downward revision over the forecast horizon, resulting in an increase in revenues.

The outlook for the land preservation credit is unchanged from the interim forecast. - As expected, about one in every three dollars refunded through November is attributable to land preservation credit. Revision: FY08 -$43.4 million, FY09 -$43.8 million, FY10 -$44.1 million 17 The Outlook For Corporate Income Tax Collections Has Been Revised Upward In Fiscal Year 2008 And Down In Fiscal Year 2009 And Fiscal Year 2010 Similar to the interim estimate, the November forecast relies on the U.S. lowgrowth scenario to better capture the projected downturn in corporate income tax receipts from the slowdown in housing. Revision: FY08 +$21.7 million, FY09 -$21.7 million, FY10 -$12.1 million Growth in Corporate Income Tax Payments Percent Change 50 FORECAST HISTORY 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 FY88 FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96

FY98 FY00 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY08 FY10 Corporate Income Tax 18 Recordation Tax Receipts Are Expected To Decline Further The revenue model supports the interim revenue forecast for fiscal year 2008; however, due to weaker collections for the first quarter of the year, model results are adjusted down. Revision: FY08 -$10.2 million, FY09 +$3.2 million, FY10 +$3.5 million Recordation Tax Receipts Millions of $ (millions of $) 400 HISTORY FORECAST 350 300 250 200 150 100 50

Base Collections Price Adjusted (2002=1.0) 0 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 19 The December Forecast Is Essentially Unchanged From The August Interim Revenue Forecast Summary of the December 2007 Revenue Forecast (millions of dollars) Major Source As a % of Total Revenues Fiscal Year 2008 $ Amount (49.1) 33.0 3,279.5 10.6 3,545.8 43.9 (10.4) (1,680.6) (43.4) (1,795.3) (43.8) (1,833.2) (44.1)

$ 27.4 19.5 % $ $ 0.0 3,136.0 $ (35.1) $ 10,177.8 $ Change 3,059.4 $ 10,421.1 9,601.8 $ Amount 19.0 64.8 % $ $ Change Nonwithholding Sales $ $ Amount 56.2 % Net Individual

9,042.3 $ Change Fiscal Year 2010 Withholding Refunds $ Fiscal Year 2009 $ (56.6) $ 11,086.0 $ 19.3 $ 11,890.4 $ 31.4 $ $ (1.2) $ $ 4.9 3,300.9 3,488.7 Corporate

4.6 747.9 21.7 743.7 (21.7) 783.9 (12.1) Wills (Recordation) 3.2 520.3 (10.2) 449.4 3.2 489.8 3.5 Insurance 2.5 403.4 7.3 284.2 (0.0) 305.9 8.9 All Other Revenue

5.3 858.6 15.3 746.5 (12.6) 766.0 (11.8) 61.6 $ 16,610.8 (13.0) $ 17,724.7 Total 100.0 % $ 16,087.3 $ $ $ 24.8 20 The December Forecast Is Essentially Unchanged From The August Interim Revenue Forecast (continued) Summary of the December 2007 Revenue Forecast (millions of dollars) Major Source As a % of Total Revenues

Fiscal Year 2008 (a) $ Amount Withholding 56.2 % Nonwithholding 19.0 3,059.4 (10.4) (1,680.6) Refunds Net Individual Sales $ 9,042.3 Fiscal Year 2009 (b) % Growth 5.6 % $ Amount $ Fiscal Year 2010 % Growth $ Amount % Growth 9,601.8 6.2 % $ 10,177.8

6.0 % 10.0 3,279.5 7.2 3,545.8 8.1 7.7 (1,795.3) 6.8 (1,833.2) 2.1 64.8 % $ 10,421.1 6.5 % $ 11,086.0 6.4 % $ 11,890.4 7.3 % 19.5 % $ 2.8 % $ 5.3 % $

5.7 % 3,136.0 3,300.9 3,488.7 Corporate 4.6 747.9 (15.0) 743.7 (0.6) 783.9 5.4 Wills (Recordation) 3.2 520.3 (10.7) 449.4 (13.6) 489.8 9.0 Insurance 2.5 403.4 4.8

284.2 (29.5) 305.9 7.6 All Other Revenue 5.3 858.6 (2.6) 746.5 (13.1) 766.0 2.6 Total 100.0 % $ 16,087.3 3.3 % $ 16,610.8 3.3 % $ 17,724.7 Notes: a) Adjusted for the Estate Tax repeal, underlying growth is 3.6% for fiscal year 2008. b) Adjusted for the Estate Tax repeal and HB 3202 (Transportation Plan), underlying growth is 5.2% for fiscal year 2009. 6.7 % 21 The December Revenue Forecast Reflects An Economy That Continues To Expand Over The Forecast Horizon

Economic-based revenue growth is expected to improve over the next biennium. Total General Fund Revenues (annual percent change) Revenue Base Economic Base FY08 3.3% 3.6% FY09 3.3% 5.2% FY10 6.7% 6.7% 22 Tax Policy Reductions That Reduce Or Reallocate General Fund Revenues Are Affecting Revenue Resources Tax Policy Changes Affecting General Fund Revenues (millions of dollars) December Forecast Increase Filing Threshold/Personal Exemption Sales Tax Holiday -- Hurricane/Energy Efficient Estate Tax Repeal 1/3 Insurance Premiums to Transportation $0.03 Recordation Tax to Transportation Total FY08 -13.5 -1.6 -42.2 0.0 0.0 -57.3 FY09

-27.1 -1.7 -140.0 -134.5 -53.9 -357.2 FY10 -26.9 -1.8 -140.0 -139.6 -58.8 -367.1 Tax policy changes remove $724.3 million from General Fund Revenue in the 2008-2010 biennial budget. 23 Year-to-date Revenue Collections Through November Are Running Very Close To The December Forecast Summary of Fiscal Year 2008 Revenue Collections July through November Major Source Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Individual Sales Corporate Wills (Recordation) Insurance All Other Revenue (a) Total (a) As a % of Total Revenues 56.2 % 19.0 (10.4) 64.8 19.5 4.6 3.2 2.5

5.3 100.0 % Percent Growth over Prior Year YTD December 2007 Actual Estimate Variance 5.0 % 5.6 % (0.6) % 13.4 10.0 3.4 (7.5) 7.7 (15.2) 6.8 6.5 0.3 2.8 (26.7) (15.3) 5.8 5.1 3.2 % 2.8 (15.0) (10.7) 4.8 (2.6) 3.3 % 0.0 (11.7) (4.6) 1.0 7.7 (0.1) % (a) Adjusted for nongeneral funds interest earnings for October and November that will be transferred in January. Not adjusted for the transfer, all other revenue growth is 11.7 percent and total general fund revenue growth is 3.6 percent. 24 Key Risks to the Outlook

25 The National And Virginia Economies Face Significant Risks There are downside risks that members of the Governors Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) and Governors Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) highlighted: Housing Market not expected to recover until early calendar 2009 Energy Prices oil prices over $90 per barrel could stall the economy Federal Government Spending future spending priorities unknown Price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Seasonally-adjusted 3-month moving average Dollars Per Barrel 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Dec 2000 Jun Dec 2001 Jun Dec 2002 Jun Dec 2003 Jun

Dec 2004 Jun Dec 2005 Jun Dec 2006 Jun Dec 2007 26 One Key Risk To Economic Growth Is From The Slowdown In The Housing Market Recent data reveal a significant slowdown in housing-related economic activity. The seasonally-adjusted, three-month moving average of home sales fell 22% in October. Pending home sales in Northern Virginia were down 18%. - Sales volume in Northern Virginia is 56% below the October 2004 level. The average sale price declined 2.8% in October, the third consecutive monthly year-over-year decline. - The average sale price has declined in 4 out of the last 6 months. Over the last 10 years, it has declined in only 8 months. 27 Pending Home Sales, A Leading Indicator Of Future Closings, Illustrate The Weakness In Housing Pending Home Sales in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond Levels Seasonally-adjusted 3-month moving average 5,500

5,000 4,500 5,500 Average Sale Price Northern Virginia Hampton Roads Richmond Oct-06 $493,615 271,893 266,402 Oct-07 $480,748 289,315 299,816 % Growth -3% 6% 13% 5,000 4,500 4,000 4,000 3,500 3,500 Hampton Roads Northern Virginia 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500

2,000 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 Richmond 500 0 0 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Northern Virginia Hampton Roads Richmond (% share of total home sales in Virginia) 30% 24% 14% 28 The Risk From The Slowdown In The Housing Market Is That It Could Spread To The Overall Economy The general slowdown in housing and the subprime mortgage meltdown broaden risks to overall economic growth. Tighter credit requirements for consumers and businesses. Negatively impacts consumer spending. Weakens related sectors of the economy.

29 Other Key Risks For The Fiscal Year 2008-10 Forecast Other factors will influence economic and revenue growth: Stock market volatility S&P 500 Index Calendar Year 2007 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 1/3 1/24 2/14 3/7 3/28 4/18 5/9 5/30 6/20 7/11 8/1 8/22 9/12 10/3 10/24 11/14 12/5 Defense and federal procurement spending International instability 30 The December Global Insight National Economic Outlook

Is Signaling Caution The latest monthly forecast put probability of recession at 40%. - The October probability was 30%. - A recession would delay the recovery well into fiscal year 2009. Moodys Economy.com puts the probability of recession at 48%. 31 Proposed Budget Actions 32 Steps Taken To Close The Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Shortfall Agency-based budget reductions contained in the Governors Budget Reduction Plan released October 1, 2007. Carryforward of unexpended appropriations from fiscal year 2007. Transfer funds from the Revenue Stabilization Fund. 33 What Can We Use The Revenue Stabilization Fund For? 1. A shortfall in current enacted budget YES 2. A projected severe downturn in economy in next biennium NO 3. An emergency spending event (i.e. natural disaster or terrorist attack) NO 34

How Much Can Be Withdrawn From The Revenue Stabilization Fund? A Withdrawal From The Revenue Stabilization Fund May Be Possible In The Event Of A Revenue Shortfall ($ in millions) Rule #1 The General Assembly may appropriate a withdrawal from the Revenue Stabilization Fund if there is a revenue shortfall of 2 percent or greater in certified tax revenue ($278.8 million for FY2007). FY2008 calculation uses data from FY2007 Individual Income + Corporate Income + Sales Tax = Total x 2% Shortfall $9,787.8 $879.6 $3,274.3 $13,941.6 $278.8 Rule #2 The withdrawal cannot exceed of the revenue shortfall ($522.3 million). Shortfall $522.3 Potential Withdrawal 2 = $261.1 35 The Governor Is Proposing A $261.1 Million Withdrawal From The Revenue Stabilization Fund In Fiscal Year 2008 Revenue Stabilization Fund -- June 30 Balance FY 1995-07 Actual and FY 2008-10 Forecast (millions of dollars) Millions of Dollars 1,400 History Forecast

1,215 1,190 1,200 1,065 1,165 1,098 1,000 800 716 575 600 482 472 361 400 224 200 340 247 157 80 85 0 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 36 The Governor is Proposing a General Obligation Bond to Address Construction of Higher Education Buildings

Virginias Fiscal Health And Financial Management Practices Are Reflected In Our AAA Bond Rating Historic Debt Capacity (millions of dollars) 1,000 946 886 900 800 700 671 698 662 628 600 691 531 500 482 445 400 300 260 284 249 220 243 200 100

0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year of Recommendation 37 The Governors Proposal For Higher Education Improvements Will Still Leave Virginia With Debt Capacity Historic Debt Capacity Plus New and Potential Authorization (millions of dollars) 1,000 946 886 900 798

800 671 700 698 662 628 600 691 615 531 500 445 482 400 300 260 284 249 220 243 200 100 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year of Recommendation Notes: (1) Represents 2006 Base Capacity plus debt authorized during 2007 Session. (2)

Represents 2006 Base Capacity plus 2007 authorization plus potential 2008 Proposed Authorization ($1.5 Billion of General Obligation Bonds and $700 Million of VCBA/VPBA Bonds) (1) (2) 38 Constructing The Higher Education Buildings Now Will Save Money Over The Long Term Construction costs have historically outpaced inflation. Historical Increase in Construction Cost For Buildings Percent 10.0 9.0 Commercial Construction Hospitals & Health Facilities CPI 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 Breakout of type of building: $728.3 million is related to the sciences/technology $896.2 million to classroom and administrative space $27.5 million is infrastructure

39 Appendix U.S. Economic Indicators Virginia Economic Indicators General Fund Forecast for FY 2008 through FY 2014 Growth in General Fund Revenues, FY 1961 through FY 2010 Nongeneral Fund Forecast for FY 2008 through FY 2014 November 2007 Revenue Report 40

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