Management 302.1-Execution of Risk Management Plan Ali Hemmati FNAL HL-LHC AUP Risk Manager HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 Outline Risk Management Plan Risk Management Cost output Schedule Output Total Risk Contingency Cost Managing Risks and BCRs Summary HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 2 Charge 6 Risk Management Plan Risk Management Plan includes (US-HiLumi-doc-339):
Risk Matrix Risk Register Analysis Risk Management Board Risk Ranking table Risk Impact Scoring Technical Impact Low Impact Medium Impact High Impact Slightly sub-standard Moderately sub-standard Significantly sub-standard or KPP in jeopardy Cost Impact HL-LHC AUP < 0.5 M$
(0.5 - 2) M$ > 2 M$ Schedule Impact HL-LHC AUP < 6 months (6-9) months > 9 months Maximum value of all impacts (above) determines overall risk impact (below) Risk ranking matrix (Probability vs. Impact) Very High 64 - 100% High 39 - 64% Medium 21 - 39% Low
9 - 21% Very low 0 - 9% Low Impact Medium Impact High Impact Medium Rank Medium Rank Low Rank Low Rank Low Rank High Rank High Rank Medium Rank Medium Rank Low Rank
High Rank High Rank High Rank Medium Rank Medium Rank This plan specifies that risks are managed according to the Fermilab Risk Management Procedure for Projects (US-HiLumi-doc-89). This procedure calls for: Complete Risk Management Plan, and perform in-depth risk identification, risk analysis, risk mitigation and response plans As the Project progresses, risks are monitored and controlled, response plans are executed, old risks are retired, and new risks are added All Risks must be actively managed HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 3 Risk Management Board Charge 6 Risk Management Board is comprised of:
Chair: Project Manager Risk Manager Deputy Project Manager Level 2 managers The Board meets at least once a month The Risk Management Board is responsible for reviewing and recommending approval or modification of risk analyses and risk mitigation strategies, as requested by the HL-LHC AUP Project Manager and assisting in the development of risk abatement strategies as needed. The CCB and RMB are tightly connected HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 4 AUP Risk Assessment Charge 6 Monthly Board meetings held to review impacts, proposed new risks, or close and retire existing risks All Risks are reviewed and approved by the Project Manager Certain risks partially materialize, and their impact including cost, schedule and probability is adjusted. These risks will have the status of open and realized As result of CCB and RMB meetings, connection between each BCR and risk is assessed, and necessary adjustments are made to each risk HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 5 Charge 6
Risk Register Risk Register Hosted: FNAL OPSS web based risk register All the L2/L3 have been trained and know how to access the risk register pdf table snapshot of currently open and closed risks at US-HiLumi-doc-XX: Open Risks High Medium Low Total Threats 19 43 23 81 Opportunities 3 9 2 Total 22
52 25 Closed Risks (Managed or Retired) High Medium Low Total Threats 5 5 5 15 14 Opportunities 1 0 0
1 99 Total 6 5 5 16 Since CD-2 Baseline, we have retired/closed 8 existing risks and introduced/opened 11 new risks HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 6 Charge 6 Risk Register Changes since CD-2 Baseline Major Changes to the Risks and their approximate net impact to the overall cost contingency: Change New New Revised New Retired Retired Retired Risk
RT-302-3-01-001 RT-302-2-01-017 RT-302-2-01-014 RT-302-2-01-019 RT-302-4-02-001 RT-302-4-02-007 RT-302-4-04-008 Title Cost impact ($k) Unforeseen design change after CD-3c 26 A CERN change in Quench Heater electrical requirements reduces the coil yield 1973 Pre-series magnets fail to meet specification 2097 CERN directs an External Quench Heater design change to increase electrical margin 859 More effort than anticipated to meet CERN's safety rules -24 CERN provided parts cost more than budgeted -775 Test stand mechanical and thermal interface compatibility issues -193 Total +$3,963 Minor changes are made to some of the top risks to prorate their estimate, which originally was form the beginning of the project Example: Increase in Overhead Rates, and Escalation rate greater than predicted HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 7 Risk Analysis
Charge 6 Probabilistic approach is used to perform risk analysis. Monte Carlo technique using Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) is used to aggregate the risk impacts and estimate overall cost and schedule risk contingency 5,000 iterations run for each analysis Results documented in US-HiLumi-doc-XX Both threats and opportunities are used to calculate cost and schedule contingency Schedule Opportunities have limited impact in PRA They cannot be fully utilized due to limitation of software To have an impact, schedule opportunities can only be applied to activities with schedule threats by only offsetting theses threats HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 8 Primavera Risk Analysis Output Charge 6 Cost Risk Contingency Cost Risk Contingency at 90% CL ($K) $22,079 HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 9 Charge 6
CD-2 Baseline Comparison Top Risks Cost Contingency Oct 2019 CD-2 Baseline RT-302-1-018 Unidentified Cold Mass Assembly scope RT-302-1-004 Increase in Overhead Rates RT-302-1-019 Unidentified Cryo Assembly Scope RT-302-2-02-005 Additional QC requested by CERN RT-302-1-006 Escalation rate greater than predicted RT-302-1-019 Unidentifed Cryo Assembly Scope RT-302-2-01-017 A CERN change in Quench Heater electrical requirements reduces the coil yield RT-302-1-018 Unidentifed Cold Mass Assembly scope RT-302-2-01-014 Pre-series magnets fail to meet specification RT-302-1-006 Escalation rate greater than predicted HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 10 Primavera Risk Analysis Output Charge 6 Schedule Risk Contingency Schedule Risk
Contingency at 90% CL 26 months HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 11 Charge 6 CD-2 Baseline Comparison Top Risks Schedule Contingency Oct 2019 RT-302-2-01-014 Pre-series magnets fail to meet specification RT-302-1-020 Elements of CD-3b scope do not meet performance requirements RT-302-1-008 CERN acceptance of project deliverables takes longer than assumed RT-302-4-03-004 Cryo-assembly fails to meet specifications RT-302-4-05-002 Untrained magnet failure in a cryo assembly during horizontal testing Cd-2 Baseline RT-302-4-05-001 Integration issue causes rework and schedule delay of Cryo-assembly prototype RT-302-3-02-02-002 Cavity Supplier Default on Contract RT-302-1-008 CERN acceptance of project deliverables takes longer than assumed RT-302-4-03-004 Cryo-assembly fails to meet specifications RT-302-4-05-002 Untrained magnet failure in a cryo assembly during horizontal testing
HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 12 Cost of Schedule Delay Charge 6 Standing Army Cost The standing army cost per month is obtained from P6 level of effort for the last 26 months of the schedule. This number was selected because of expected delay to finish the project by 26 months of delay at 90% confidence. This standing army cost, including escalation, is $340k per month. Oct-19 Standing army Schedule Delay cost ($k)/month ($k) $340 $8,840 CD 2 Baseline Standing army Schedule Delay cost ($k)/month ($k) $395 $9,085 Increase since Cd-2 baseline is mainly due to the Cryo-assembly Tooling delay from CERN Pushed project end activities further out
Now the LOEs from earlier activities are not present in the standing army cost determination HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 13 Total Risk Contingency Cost Risk Contingency at 90% CL Oct 2019 CD2 CD-4 T4 Milestone from P6 March 2025 Feb. 2025 CD-4 T4 Milestone At 90% CL June 2027 Jan. 2027 Schedule Contingency 26 months 23 months Cost Risk Contingency ($K) $22,079
$19,160 Cost of Schedule Delay* ($K) $8,840 $9,098 Total Cost Risk Contingency ($K) $30,919 $28,258 Charge 6 Increase since CD-2 baseline due to new added risks explained earlier HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 14 Total Risk Cost Contingency Time Plot FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 This plot includes risk cost and cost of schedule delay HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 15
Example of Managed Risk Open/Realized RT-302-1-018 Unidentified Cold Mass Assembly scope HL-LHC AUP_0071 - Impact $647k HL-LHC AUP_0093 - Impact $143k HL-LHC AUP_0092 - Impact $33k HL-LHC AUP_0102 - impact $110k HL-LHC AUP_0103 - Impact $120k The Risks total cost impact is adjusted as the BCRs are approved The BCR-Risk relationship presents how project monitors risks and contingency very closely HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 16 Summary Charge 6 Projects Risk Management Plan is complete and follows FNALs established procedures The Project actively monitors the risks in many ways: Monthly Risk Board meetings, direct weekly/monthly communication to L2/L3 managers, Risk workshops, CCB meeings The project uses established probabilistic technique such as Monte Carlo to estimate overall project cost & schedule impact The project manages contingency by monitoring BCRs and Risks closely HL-LHC AUP IPR DOE/SC Review Jan. 14th16th 2020 17
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