Initial Results and Future Applications of a CONUS-Wide Flash ...

Initial Results and Future Applications of a CONUSwide Flash Flood Prediction System Zachary Flamig [email protected] University of Oklahoma/School of Meteorology NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory In collaboration with: JJ Gourley Vergara NOAA/NSSL October 25th, 2010 Suzanne Van Cooten NOAA/NSSL Yang Hong Humberto OU/CEES National Flood Workshop, Houston, TX OU/CEES

Looking inland Floods & Flash Floods around May 1st Nashville, TN >$1 Billion in damage Flash Flood on June 14th Oklahoma City, OK >$1 Million in damage Flash Flood on June 10th Albert Pike Campground, AR 20 Fatalities AP Photos X Flash Flood Prediction? State of the Art: Gridded Flash Flood Guidance* Distributed hydrologic model for soil moisture accounting Rainfall/runoff model for runoff potential prediction Static model for critical runoff threshold estimation

Ultimately derives rainfall threshold which if exceeded means flash flooding is occurring or will occur! *Schmidt, J., A. J. Anderson, and J. H. Paul, 2007: Spatially-variable, physically-derived flash flood guidance. Preprints 21st Conference on Hydrology, San Antonio, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 6B.2. Observed Precipitation Forecast Precipitation Distributed Hydrologic Models time Flood Flood Exposure Exposure Model Model Probability National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ-) Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) Probability

Flash Flood Prediction $0 >$5M Property Damage Probability time Requirements: Flash Flood Scale (1 km2, Sub-Hourly Time Scale) Probabilistic (Ensemble) Prediction 0 1,000 People Affected $0 >$1M Getting Observed Precipitation

NMQ Q2, radar only product 0.01 x 0.01 (~1km x 1km) 2.5 minute update Long term reanalysis (soon!) Precipitation Forecasts Cloud resolving NWP from 4km2 to 1km2 HRRR primary candidate because it assimilates NMQ 3D radar reflectivity field Hydrologic Models HL-RDHM CREST Jointly developed by OU/NASA Developed by NWS

Runs operationally over globe Runs operationally at RFCs Simulated Threshold Frequency Requires a long archive of precipitation (10+ years) Run the model using the precipitation archive Compute Log Pearson-III flood frequencies for each grid cell USGS 07196500 Illinois River near Tahlequah, OK Return Frequency Full Archive USGS Q 14 Year USGS Q 14 Year Simulated Q

2 Years 555 cms 549 cms 655 cms 5 Years 1119 cms 925 cms 841 cms 10 Years 1594 cms 1215 cms 959 cms 25 Years 2297 cms 1625 cms 1103 cms

50 Years 2888 cms 1962 cms 1207 cms 100 Years 3540 cms 2322 cms 1309 cms Flood Exposure Model Risk = Hazard (dynamic) * Vulnerability (static) Property damage from ABRFC area for flash floods Utilizes StormDat polygon data from 2006-2010 Only hazard information used in shown figure

Verification Methods NWS flash flood reports (StormDat) 1. + - Designed to encompass all events in forecasters area of responsibility Dependent upon NWS warning process, population density 15-minute streamflow data from USGS 2. + - - Objective measurement of discharge Need flashy basins with basin area < 260 km2 (flash flood scale) Flash flood defined as 2-year return period

SHAVE flash flood reports 3. + + - - High spatial and temporal resolution Flood characteristics Database is storm-targeted; does not encompass all flash flood events Dependent on population density Event Type: Flood Start Time: 6/27/2008 11:30 A.M. Latitude: 38.013824 Longitude: -96.715266 Event Type: Flash County: Butler State:Flood Kansas Flood Nature: Overflow road other WFO: OUN

Depth: 0.3 m Begin Date: Lateral Extent: 300 m3/20/2007 Comments: corral on A.M. BeginHorse Time: 9:30 location was flooded. Creek flooded CST 1/4 mile west from location. Road County: closed at 150th Kay and Highway 77. State: OK Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE)*

SHAVE reports are more dense than NWS reports (e.g., 50:1) Unique data collected in SHAVE Reports of no flooding Specific impact Lateral extent/depth/motion of water Respondent-estimated frequency Lightning Creek flooding, OKC July 2010 *Ortega, K.E., T.M. Smith, K.L. Manross, A.G. Kolodziej, K.A. Scharfenberg, A. Witt, and J.J. Gourley, 2009: The severe hazards and verification experiment, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1519-1530.

Lets see it! Back to the Coast! Distributed hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) run for Tar & Neuse basins. Green dots represent verification points Red dots are hand-off points for hydrodynamic ocean model (ADCIRC) NMQ-FLASH will allow for distributed hydrologic model results from anywhere in the CONUS including other coastal areas (Texas, South Carolina, etc) Real-time Simulations

Non-optimized ensemble produces reasonable spread already at this early stage; optimized ensemble from NMQ-FLASH will produce a spread that completely envelopes the observed hydrograph. National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ-) Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) - A CONUS-wide flash-flood forecasting demonstration system NMQ/Q2 Rainfall Observations -1km2/2.5 min Stormscale Rainfall Forecasts Stormscale Distributed Hydrologic Models Probabilistic Forecast Return Periods and Estimated Impacts 5 hr Q5 Q2 Hydrograph of Simulated and Observed Discharge Simulated Simulated surface

surface water water flow flow 6 8 10 40% 60% 80% t=0100 t=0000 20 20 fatalities fatalities 10-11 June 2010, Albert Pike Rec Area, Arkansas t=2300 Probability of life-threatening flash flood

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