Intuition in Strategy - Handelshøyskolen BI

Intuition in Strategy - Handelshøyskolen BI

IMPLEMENTERING AV STRATEGI Implementering av Strategi Strategien vr er ikke vellykket, hvis den ikke blir implementert og retningsgivende for hele virksomheten.

Det er mennesker som gjr valg og utfrer aktiviteter i en virksomhet. Hvordan de tenker og lrer, avgjr hvor effektiv vr strategi blir. Agenda Vi skal derfor se p to sentrale mter organisasjoner lrer og utvikler seg p; a) Exploration, dvs. gjennom utforske nye muligheter.

b) Exploitation, dvs. gjennom forbedring og utnytting av eksisterende produksjon. Vi skal ogs se p to mter tenke p; a) Analytisk b) Intuitiv Behersker vi dette, blir det lettere implementere strategien vr. Exploration/Utforske & Exploitation/Utnytte

Exploration includes things captured by terms such as search, variation, risk taking, new alternatives, flexibility experimentation, play, discovery, innovation. Exploitation includes such things as refinement and improvement of existing production, efficiency, selection, implementation, execution.

Exploration/Utforske & Exploitation/Utnytte Organisasjoner & individer som hele tiden eksperimenterer med nye ideer, p bekostning av det vedlikeholde og utvikle eksisterende produksjon, havner fort i en situasjon med mange kostnader og lite inntekter. (dot.com, Norge og mobileventyret som glapp) Hvis de aldri tr prve noe nytt, vil mange gode sjanser kunne g tapt. Dette blir selvflgelig heller ikke

optimalt. (Bergans ryggsekker, Tandberg) Utfordringen er finne balansen mellom det forflge nye muligheter og det vedlikeholde eksisterende produksjon. Dette vil gi god overlevelsesevne og lnnsomhet. (Oljebransjen, Antares) James March Exploration/Utforske & Exploitation/Utnytte Exploration = Den som intet vger, intet

vinner ....., forandring fryder....., hvis alle tenker likt, er det ingen som tenker., visjonr....... Exploitation = Skomaker bli ved din lest, never change a winnning game....., en fugl i hnden er bedre enn ti p taket......, gresset er ikke grnnere p andre siden av elven....., sunn fornuft og bakkekontakt....... To elefant-historier....... Alt som kan finnes opp er

oppfunnet. Charles Duell, USAs Patent Kommisjonr, 1899 Source: Newsweek Fly er spennende leker, men de har ingen militr anvendelse. - General Ferdinand Foch, 1911 Source: Newsweek Platespilleren har ingen

kommersiell interesse. - Thomas Alva Edison, 1880 Source: Schoemaker (1995) Jeg tror det er et verdensmarked for rundt 5 datamaskiner. Thomas Watson, sjef for IBM, 1943 Source: Schoemaker (1995) Det er ingen grunn til at

privatpersoner skal ha datamaskin i eget hjem. - Ken Olsen, Digitals grunnlegger, 1977 Source: Newsweek ke innovasjons-takten Eks. 3M, BI? UTFORSKNINGSFOKUS B

es tp ra ct ic e ku r

ve Hva passer best med vr strategi? Er det noen av gruppene som vil presentere sin bedrift? UTNYTTELSESFOKUS ke

effektiviteten Eks. Rimi, Rema Noen viktige momenter: Organisasjoner er som regel avhengige av bde Exploration og Exploitation. Pga. begrensede ressurser, vil det imidlertid vre vanskelig involvere seg

i bde exploration og exploitation p samme tid og sted. Vaner er ofte vonde vende, s exploration har drlige kr. (Bordet fanger) Ofte er det ogs slik at organisasjoner har lite refleksjon og bevissthet om betydningen av ha en sunn balanse mellom exploration og exploitation. Tidshorisont, risiko, variasjon i individuelle og organisatoriske preferanser gjr det vanskelig velge hvor mye ressurser vi br investere i exploration og exploitation. Dette br diskuteres i forbindelse med strategi. De fleste nye ideer er drlige ideer.., ihvertfall for vr bedrift..

Gode og drlige ideer er vanskelige se forskjell p For at nye muligheter/ideer skal bli brekraftige, kreves tlmodighet. Genialitet og galskap er ofte relatert.. (dot.com) Hvor mye vekt vi skal legge p exploration og exploitation, avhenger av vr forretningside og egenart. Noen flere momenter: Sammenlignet med den gevinst vi fr gjennom forbedring av eksisterende produksjon (exploitation), er gevinsten vi fr fra det utforske nye alternativ/teknologi, langt mer usikker (dot.com). Vi vet ikke om den kommer i det hele tatt og vi vet

heller ikke hvor stor gevinsten/tapet eventuellt vil bli. Et annet eksempel p dette, er grunnforskning versus anvendt forskning. Nringslivet har ikke tid eller rd til satse p grunnforskning. Samfunnet som helhet, har ikke rd til la vre. I organisasjoner vil det ofte vre hensiktsmessig sikre at lringsprosesser optimalisers bde gjennom utnytting av eksisterende kunnskap og utvikling av ny. Vi skal se p to case som illustrerer noen sentrale utfordringer vi her str overfor:

Case A Lring i en organisasjon hvor turnover er lav og hvor det eksterne milj er nogenlunde stabilt: I denne situasjonen er det kun et sprsml om tid, fr alle individene har tilegnet seg den virkelighetsforstelse organisasjonen er preget av. Hvis individene lrer raskt, rekker ikke organisasjonen lre noe av individene! Den totale lringseffekt blir derfor liten. Hvis sosialiseringsprosessene gr tregt, konformitets-presset er svakt og mange er tunglrte, vil organisasjonen f bedre mulighet til lre av individene! Den totale lringseffekt blir derfor mye strre.

I exploitation vil den frste situasjonen vre foretrekke, mens den andre situasjonen klart er foretrekke, i exploration. Konklusjonen er med andre ord, at det alltid vil vre fordelaktig for organisasjonen, ha noen ansatte som bruker lang tid p innordne seg de normer, regler og kunnskap som gjelder. Rekruttering av folk som har annen faglig og sosial bakgrunn vil alltid vre klokt. Case B Lring i en organisasjon hvor turnover er hy og hvor det eksterne milj er turbulent: Hvis individene raskt tilpasser seg bedriftens virkelighet, rekker

ikke organisasjonen lre noe av individene. Hvorvidt hy turnover ker den totale lringseffekten eller ikke, avhenger av hvor raskt de nyansatte tilegner seg bedriftens virkelighet. Hvis de lrer sakte, s svekkes exploration. Ingen lrer noe fr de slutter. Hvis de lrer veldig fort, svekkes exploration. Kun individene lrer noe, fr de slutter. Hvis de lrer relativt fort, eller vi har en passe hy turnover, s

fr vi en situasjon som slr heldigere ut. Bde organisasjonen og individene fr en lringsgevinst. Ustabilitet i omgivelsene, forsterker denne konklusjonen. Hvis vi da ikke fr inn nye folk, og vr kultur er homogen, vil vr tilpasningsevne svekkes raskt. Retningslinjer som kan gjre det lettere utforske nye ideer:

Treat Treat Treat Treat Treat intuition as real memory as an enemy experience as a theory

the self as a hypothesis hypocrisy as a transition James March Treat Intuition as Real It is not clear what intuition is. Perhaps it is simply an excuse for doing what decision makers want to do when they cannot explain why they want to do it. Perhaps it is some inexplicable way of consulting memories or ideas that are inaccessible to standard theories of thought. Whatever it

is, a belief in intuition strenghens the case for actions, that are otherwise indefensible. Treat Memory as an Enemy Rules of consistency and coherent selves require memory. For most purposes good memories make good choices. Memories accumulate experience and permit learning. But the ability to forget, or overlook, may also be useful. A decision maker who cannot recall what was done

yesterday, or does not know what others are doing today, may act within a system of consistent rationality or rule-following, and nevertheless act foolishly. Treat Experience as a Theory Learning is based on a series of conclusions about history that people have invented to understand experience. Interpretations of history, and thus experience, can be changed retrospectively. By changing the

interpretation of history now, decision makers can revise what they learned earlier and reconstruct selfconceptions. Treat the Self as a Hypothesis Conventional thinking about decision making allows doubts about everything except the one thing about which there is often the greatest doubt the self. Suppose decision making is defined as a time for testing alternative preferences and identities. Decision makers can treat

decision less as a process of deduction or negotiation and more as a process of gently upsetting preconceptions of what is desirable or appropriate. Treat Hypocrisy as a Transition Hypocrisy (det late som man er noe annet enn man er) is an inconsistency between behavior and asserted preferences or identities. It incurs opprobrium (bidrar til drlig rykte) both because it reflects inconsistency and because it appears to combine the pleasure of vice with the rewards

of virtue. The onus (vektleggingen) on hypocrisy, however, inhibits foolishness. A decision maker with good-sounding talk may be a person experimenting with being good in other ways. It may be more sensible to encourage the experimentation than to condemn it. Andre momenter ved implementering av strategi Tidshorisont for implementeringen Lang Kort

stor Steg-for-steg iverksettelse Omfattende iverksettelse Viktigheten lav

Styrt Fremvoksende iverksettelse iverksettelse Fig. 9-1 Allokering av ressurser Fordeling av oppgaver til de ulike delene av organisasjonen, evt. reorganisering Delegering av ansvar, og

etablering av koordineringsmekanismer Fastlegging av retningslinjer Klarlegging ml p de ulike nivene Kontroll Fig. 9-2 Implementering av ny strategi br ogs f konsekvenser for arbeidsprosessene

Etter hvert som en organisasjon endres vil mten man arbeider p bli gammeldags: Det tas ikke hensyn til ny teknologi, Eller til nye kundekrav, Endringer i rammebetingelser, Og mer dynamisk konkurransearena. Flgelig m arbeidsprosessene ofte endres ved en strategi-implementering.

Strategi-implementeringen m ogs ta hensyn til organisasjons-strukturen: Enkel struktur

Funksjonell struktur Divisjonsstruktur Holdingselskap/finansieringsselskap Matriseorganisasjon Nettverks- og virtuelle organisasjoner Multinasjonale organisasjoner Oppsummering: S langt har vi har sett p to sentrale mter organisasjoner lrer og utvikler seg p; Exploration & Exploitation. Vi har konkludert med at god implementering av

strategi, krever en balanse mellom de. Vi skal n se p to mter tenke p; Analytisk & Intuitiv Vi vil konkludere med at god implementering av strategi, krever bruk av begge. Analyse & Intuitiv Syntese Hvorfor er intuisjon viktig i strategi? Hva er intuisjon? Hvordan kan vi utvikle vr intuisjon?

Why is Intuition Important in Strategy? In many cases, the heavy reliance upon extensive analysis, as the only way of thinking about strategy, leads us directly into the exploitation trap. Intuition, not only promotes new ideas and exploration, but also gives us the ability to think holistically. This is indeed crucial, in strategy. The development and use of intuiton thus help us in two ways; It facilitates exploration of the mind, and

a balance between exploitation and exploration. Today, many companies have done much of the hard work of catching up on quality, cost, speed and flexibility. That is, there is little to gain from further improvements in these areas. How then, should we proceed? Hamel & Prahalad Refinements & improvements of conventional

knowledge and established methods, provide short-run gains that are compelling. As we develop greater and greater competence in using these established technologies & strategies, we become less and less willing or able to change to newer ones that offer longer-run superiority. How then, should we proceed? James March We need to explore and cultivate the potential of those activities,

that are unique to us, and timebound to a lesser extent. The mind is the single most important asset in this respect. Strategic Planning is Analytic Strategic Thinking is Intuitive Henry Mintzberg Analysis & Intuition Analysis, is a critical examination, that seeks to learn what the whole is built of, that is, we break

the whole system down to numerous parts. We then look for correlations between two or more pieces, in order to find the cause of the variance and difference. Intuitive synthesis, is the ability to combine, integrate and merge all these separate parts, back into a whole system. With no fragmentation, cause and effect is the same thing. What do leading scientists say? Fragmentation is now very widespread, not only throughout society, but also in

each individual. This is leading to a general confusion of the mind, which creates an endless series of problems, and interferes with our clarity of perception, so seriously as to prevent us from being able to solve most of them. David Bohm EINSTEIN: A human being is part of the whole called by us, universe . . . a part limited in time and space. We

experience ourselves, our thoughts and feelings as something separate from the rest. A kind of optical delusion of consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison, by widening our circle of compassion. ............. to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty. We need a substantially new manner of thinking, if mankind is to survive. What do research tell us?

One critical finding, in a survey including 1300 practicing managers from nine countries, is that intuition is perceived as playing a major role in their professional lives. 56 % using both intuition and logic/reasoning in almost equal measure, and a further 7,5 % stating that they actually use intuition more. Almost 80 % believe that intuition has relevance in corporate strategy and planning. Parikh et al. 1994

What do top researchers say? Studying intuition is a way to create a more realistic view of how strategic decision makers actually think. Successful strategy emerges from a decision process in which executives develop collective intuition. Kathleen Eisenhardt 1999 What do top strategists say? In these thirty years, that I have had the pleasure to lead organizations, it

has almost always gone well, when I have trusted my intuition. When I have done things the old, traditional way, it has not turned out so favourably. Jan Carendi CEO Skandia Cost, speed & accuracy of intuition The analytic approach to problem solving produces the precise answer more often,

but its distribution of errors is quite wide. In contrast to this, intuition is less frequently precise, but more consistently close to the correct answer. Peters et. al. Decisions aided by intuition are available immediately. Analysis would seem to be slower & costlier. Though, intimate knowledge of the

subject, may be required for intuition to work properly. The investment cost of intuition is thus much higher. Summarizing ....... So far, we have suggested that intuition is important in strategy, because it provides us with an ability to synthesise the many pieces of information, provided by consultants, managers, customers, competitors, politicians, employees, etc. Intuition thus creates a clearer and larger

picture, enabling the strategist to see the uniqueness in and between all the activities pursued, and thus what to emphasise & what direction to follow. Summarizing ....... We have also indicated that because many companies have done much of the hard work of catching up on quality, cost, speed and flexibility, the challenge now, is not so much, further exploitation or improvements in these

areas. Rather, it is to explore & develop the intuitive ability to see, how activities can be combined in a way, that is unique to us. (Ref. Porter) Hva fikk dere ut av Mintzberg sin artikkel? 2 What is Intuition? A Hunch Gut Feeling Sudden Insight

Perception of the Unconscious Foresight & Insight Synthesis Language of Metaphors, Symbols & Analogies Definition Intuition is the event which occurs when an individual reaches a conclusion on the basis of less explicit information than is ordinarily required to

reach that conclusion. Malcolm Westcott At any given moment one is conscious of only a small section of what one knows. Definition Intuition allows one to draw on that vast storehouse of unconscious knowledge that includes not only everything that one has experienced or learned, either consciously

or subliminally, but also the infinite reservoir of the collective or universal consciousness, in which individual separateness and ego boundaries are transcended. Frances Vaughan Definition H. Simon, Nobel prize winner, argues that the essence of intuition lies in the organization of knowledge for quick identification, that is, arranged in terms of recognizable chunks, and not in its

rendering for inspired design. These processes can be explained without postulating mechanisms at subconscious levels that are different from those that are partly verbalized. Much of the iceberg is, indeed, below the surface and inaccessible to verbalization, but its concealed bulk is made of the same ice as the part we can see . In opposition to Simons view, is the great many works of philosophy, claiming that intuition is brand new, and true insight. It originates, not only in the

individual, but in the universal consciousness as well. Definition Intuition is a state of mind and being, where the consciousness of the subject is aligned & one with any object. Alice Bailey Intuition .

Looks in-to-it Perceives what is unconscious Visualizes it as pictures, symbols, archetypes, metaphors, analogies Connect and link it to consciousness Synthesize elements of knowledge and information to coherent patterns and wisdom Finds the meaning Can intuition be wrong?

Intuitive problem solving; Intuition advocate harmony between thinking, feelings, and information provided by the five senses. Intuition can thus benefit organizations in i.e. the following ways; Intuition may provide the basis for a strategic plan. Intuition helps keep decision making in context. Intuition promotes change. A shared intuitive perception gives people a

compass. 3. How Can We Develop Our Intuition? Meditation, quieting the mind Receptive, non-judgmental attitude Dream interpretation Visualization Guided imagery Understanding of symbols, myths, and archetypes. Focus simultaneously in and out Use environment as mirror

Bring to mind a problem that you have. We will now let intuition work on it. Sit back and relax. Take some good deep breaths. Close your eyes. A little story .... There was a poor farmer who had a chicken, which suddenly produced an egg made of gold ......

His surprise was great, when this happened the next morning as well. And the next, and the next, ..... After some time, he became rich and greedy. He decided to kill the chicken, opened it up and searched for even more eggs ...... Mind-game A rational choice; Is based on the decision makers current assets & best interests. Assets include not only money, but

physiological state, psychological capasities, social relationships, and feelings. Proper judgement, of what the best interests are, require synthesis, that is, intuition. (Jon Elster, 1996, p. 16.) It is based on the possible consequences of the choice. When these consequences are uncertain, their likelihood is evaluated without violating the basic rules of probability theory. The anatomy of a decision Define the problem

Identify the criteria Weight the criteria Generate alternatives Rate each alternative on each criterion Compute the optimal decision Max Bazerman Improving decision making Acquiring experience and expertise Debiasing judgment Using linear models based on expert judgment

Adjusting intuitive predictions Max Bazerman Adjusting intuitive predictions Select a comparison group Assess the distribution of the comparison group Incorporate intuitive estimation Assess the predictability of the analysts forecast Adjust the intuitive estimate Kahneman & Tversky

Strategi-prosessen Ekstern Analyse Visjon, Strategiske Ml & Mlhierarki Intern Analyse Strategisk analyse

Strategiske valg Vekting av kriteriene Beslutningskriterer Evaluering av valgalternativene Strategi-implementering Lede endring Analyse & Intuisjon

Utforske & utnytte Oppsumering & Sprsml:

Temaet i dag? Tidligere forelesninger? Prosjektoppgaven? Veiledningen? For de som er interessert i utdypning, s finnes rikelig med materiale p min hjemmeside: Strategi 1: Strategisk analyse Strategi 2: Strategi implementering

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