Issue Y2K The Great War for Talent!

Issue Y2K The Great War for Talent!

Tom Peters Re-Imagine! Business Excellence in a Disruptive Age An Introduction to Crazy Times 03.12.2004 The Change Tsunami

Jobs Technology Globalization War, Warfighting & Security Jobs New Technology Globalization

War, Warfighting & Security The Perfect (Jobs) Storm Off-shoring WC Automation Reluctance to hire

Behind Surging Productivity: The Service Sector Delivers. Firms Once Thought Immune to Boosting Worker Output Are Now Big Part of the Trend Headline/WSJ/11.03 As Economy

Gains, Outsourcing Surges Headline/Boston Globe/11.03 In a global economy, the government cannot give anybody a guaranteed success

story, but you can give people the tools to make the most of their own lives. WJC, from Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History 14 MILLION service jobs are in danger of being shipped overseas

The Dobbs Report/USN&WR/11.03/re new UCB study 1 in 10 tech jobs headed offshore by end of 2004. Source: Gartner Group/06.03 Is Your Job Going

Abroad? Time/Cover/03.04 Income Confers No Immunity as Jobs Migrate Headline/USA Today/02.04 A new suspect emerges in hunt for missing U.S.

jobs Headline/FT/02.17.04/on small business off-shoring One Singaporean worker costs as much as 3 in Malaysia 8 in Thailand 13 in China 18 in India.

Source: The Straits Times/08.18.03 Thaksinomics (after Taksin Shinawatra, PM)/ Bangkok Fashion City/ managed asset reflation (add to brand value of Thai textiles by demonstrating flair and design excellence) Source: The Straits Times/03.04.2004

The proper role of a healthily functioning economy is to destroy jobs and to put labor to use elsewhere. Despite this truth, layoffs and firings will always sting, as if the invisible hand of free enterprise has slapped workers in the face. Joseph Schumpeter

--79% of U.S. jobs in structurally changed professions (permanently eliminated jobs) (40K of 160K U.S. IBM) --As we trade we release more labor from the service sector because our highly skilled and highly paid workers lose their competitive advantage. So we go to the next big thing. We specialize in innovation. We develop new

products and start new industries. (Erica Groshen, labor economist Fed of NY) Source: CNN/Money/01.07.2004 There is no job that is Americas God-given right anymore.

Carly Fiorina/ HP/ 01.08.2004 Either we modernize or we will be modernized by the unremitting force of the markets. Gerhard Schroeder

WHAT ARE PEOPLE GOING TO DO WITH THEMSELVES? Headline/ Fortune/ 11.03 (We should finally admit that we do not and cannot know, and regard that fact with serenity rather than anxiety.) Uncertainty is the only thing to be sure of. Anthony Muh,

head of investment in Asia, Citigroup Asset Management If you dont like change, youre going to like irrelevance even less. General Eric Shinseki, Chief of Staff, U. S. Army A bureaucrat is an

expensive microchip. Dan Sullivan, consultant and executive coach E.g. Jeff Immelt: 75% of admin, back room, finance digitalized in

3 years. Source: BW (01.28.02) Unless mankind redesigns itself by changing our DNA

through altering our genetic makeup, computergenerated robots will take over the world. Stephen Hawking, in the German magazine Focus What strategic motto will dominate this transition from nation-state to marketstate? If the slogan that animated the liberal, parliamentary nation-states was make the world safe for democracy, what

will the forthcoming motto be? Perhaps making the world available, which is to say creating new worlds of choice and protecting the autonomy of persons to choose. Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History better material welfare vs. maximize

the opportunity of its people Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History Jobs Technology

Globalization War, Warfighting & Security <1000A.D.: paradigm shift: 1000s of years 1000: 100 years for paradigm shift 1800s: > prior 900 years 1900s: 1st 20 years > 1800s 2000: 10 years for paradigm shift

21st century: 1000X tech change than 20th century (the Singularity, a merger between humans and computers that is so rapid and profound it

represents a rupture in the fabric of human history) Ray Kurzweil Vernor Vinge/Mr. Singularity The transition time from human history to post-human singularity time, Vinge thinks, will be astonishingly shortmaybe one

hundred hours from the first moment of computer selfawareness to computer world conquest.Esquire/12.2002 We found that the pace of development from one societal type to another is accelerating. The agricultural society originated 10,000 years ago, the industrial society between 200 and 100 years ago, the

information-based society 20 years ago. Rolf Jensen/The Dream Society: How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business I genuinely believe we are living through the greatest intellectual moment in history. Matt Ridley, Genome

In 25 years, youll probably be able to get the sum total of all human knowledge on a personal device. Greg Blonder, VC [was Chief Technical Adviser for Corporate Strategy @ AT&T] [Barrons 11.13.2000]

A California biotechnology company has put the entire sequence of the human genome on a single chip, allowing researchers to conduct on the complex relationships between the 30,000 genes that make up a human being in a single

experiment. Page 3, Financial Times/10.03.2003 Sequenom/David Ewing Duncan/Wired11.02 Sequenom has industrialized the SNP [single nucleotide polymorphisms] identification process. This, Im told, is the first time a healthy human has ever been screened for the full gamut of genetic-disease markers. On the horizon: multi-disease gene kits, available at

Wal*Mart, as easy to use as home-pregnancy tests. You cant look at humanity separate from machines; were so intertwined were almost the same species, and the difference is getting smaller. Help! Theres nobody in the cockpit. In the future, will the airlines no longer need pilots?

Grumman Global Hawk/ 24 hours/ Edwards to South Australia Source: The Economist/12.21.2002 Theres going to be a fundamental change in the global economy unlike

anything we have had since the cavemen began bartering. Arnold Baker, Chief Economist, Sandia National Laboratories UPS used to be a trucking company with technology. Now its a technology company

with trucks. Forbes, upon naming UPS Company of the Year in Y2000 Jobs Technology

Globalization War, Warfighting & Security Historically, smart people have always turned to where the money was. Today, money is turning to

where the smart people are. FT/06.03.03 The World Must Learn to Live with a Wide-awake China Headline/FT/11.03

Asias rise is the economic event of our age. Should it proceed as it has over the last few decades, it will bring the two centuries of global domination by Europe and, subsequently, its giant North American offshoot to an end. Financial Times (09.22.2003)

The world has arrived at a rare strategic inflection point where nearly half its populationliving in China, India and Russiahave been integrated into the global market economy, many of them highly educated workers, who can do just about any job in the world. Were talking about three billion

people. Craig Barrett/Intel/01.08.2004 Cost of a Programmer, per IBM China: $12.50 per hour USA: $56 per hour Source: WSJ/01.19.2004 China

Roars! China has become a manufacturing hub for the rest of the world in low-end labor-intensive goodsand the rest of the world is becoming a manufacturing hub for China in high-end, capital-intensive goods. China may be a threat to certain parts of the global supply chain that rely on low-cost labor, but it represents an even greater opportunity via

production-efficiency gains, economic welfare gains and long-term dynamic potential. Its booming exports are more than matched by booming industrial imports and foreign investment opportunities. It has become the new engine of global growth. Source: Glen Hodgson & Mark Worrall/Export Development Canada, in China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003 1990-2003: Exports 8X

($380B); 6% global exports 2003 vs. 3.9% 2000; 16% of Total Global Growth in 2002. Source: China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003 1998-2003: 45,000,000 layoffs in state sector; offset by $450B in foreign investment; foreign

companies account for 50+% of exports vs. 31% in Mexico, 15% in Korea. Source: China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003 50% of output from private firms, 37% from state-owned firms; 80% of workforce

(incl. rural) now in private employ. Source: China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003 Population growth = 1%; two-thirds of housing privately owned, 90% of urban Chinese own a home

(vs. 61% in Japan) Source: China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003 200 cities with >1,000,000 population. Source: China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

200,000,000 unemployed; must create 20,000,000 jobs per year to offset layoffs; 400,000,000 elderly Chinese by 2030 (currently no pension funds). Source: China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

397,000,000 fixed phone lines = 90X since 1989. Source: China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003 2003: China-Hong Kong leading

producer in 8 of 12 key consumer electronic product areas (>50%: DVDs, digital cameras; >33.33%: DVD-ROM drives, personal desktop and notebook computers; >25% mobile phones, color TVs, PDAs, car stereos). Source: China Takes Off, David Hale & Lyric Hughes Hale/Foreign Affairs/Nov-Dec2003

When the Chinese Consumer Is King: Americas mass market is second to none. Someday it will just be second. Headline, New York Times/12.14.2003

As China becomes the worlds factory and Flextronics becomes the biggest electronics manufacturer in China, policy makers and analysts wonder whether there will be a future for manufacturing in Singapore, Malaysia, North America or Europe. Asia Inc./02.2004

Going Global: Flush with billions in foreign reserves, China is embarking on a buying spree Cover/ Newsweek/ 03.01.04/ on Chinas aggressive offshore acquisition activity (buying brands, technology, etc.)

World economic output: U.S.A., 21%; EU, 16%; China, 13% (2X since1991) Source: New York Times/12.14.2003 America, like everyone else, must get used to being a loser as well as a gainer in the global economy. In the end, the

21st century is unlikely to be the American Century. When the Chinese Consumer Is King/New York Times/12.14.2003. The notion that God intended Americans to be permanently wealthier than the rest of the world, that gets less and less likely as time goes on. Robert Solow, Nobel laureate in economics/New York Times/12.14.2003

In Store: International Equality, Intranational Inequality The new organization of society implied by the triumph of individual autonomy and the true equalization of opportunity based upon merit will lead to very great rewards for merit and great individual autonomy. This will leave individuals far more responsible for themselves than they have been accustomed to being during the industrial period. It will also reduce the

unearned advantage in living standards that has been enjoyed by residents of advanced industrial societies throughout the 20th century. James Davidson & William Rees-Mogg,The Sovereign Individual INDIAThe Next Manufacturing Hub? Asia Inc./02.04

With a Small Car, India Takes Big Step Onto Global Stage Headline, p. 1, WSJ, 02.05.2004 Indian GDP/1990-2002: Ag,

34% to 21%; services, 40% to 56% Source: The Economist/02.04 Level 5 (top) ranking/Carnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute: 35 of 70 companies in world are

from India Source: Wired/02.04 GE is a champion of Indias scientists, technicians, business analysts and graduates, thousands of whom work at the U.S. conglomerates offshore service centers in India. They are the low-cost, high capability vanguard of GEs

outsourcing to India. Along the way, GE has transformed its cost structure, enhanced its ability to provide technology services and incubated a rare world-class industry in India. FT/06.03.03 The Americans self-image that this tech thing was their private preserve is over. This is a wake-up call for U.S.

workers to redouble their efforts at education and research. If they do that, it will spur a whole new cycle of innovation, and well both win. If we each pull down our shutters, we will both lose. Indian software exec to Tom Friedman (NYT/03.04) Forget India, Lets

Go to Bulgaria Headline, BW/03.04, re SAP, BMW, Siemens et al. near-shoring CLONING COLLEGE: South Koreas biomedical researchers,

unhampered by politics, do world-class research on the cheap Headline, Newsweek/03.01.04 Jobs Technology

Globalization War, Warfighting & Security We are at a pivotal point in history. We are at one of a half dozen turning points that have fundamentally changed

the way societies are organized for governance. Philip Bobbitt, The Shield of Achilles: War, Peace, and the Course of History September 11 amounts to World War IIIthe third great totalitarian challenge to open societies in the last 100 years. Thomas

Friedman/NYT/01.08.2004 The worlds new dimension (computers, Internet, globalization, instantaneous communication, widely available instruments of mass destruction and so on) amounts to a new metaphysics that, by empowering individual zealots or agitated tribes

with unappeasable grievances, makes the world unstable and dangerous in radically new ways. Lance Morrow/Evil The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century Robert Cooper (as interpreted by Tom Peters)

This is a dangerous world and it is going to become more dangerous. We may not be interested in chaos but chaos is interested in us. Source: Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

What happened after 1945 was not so much a radically new system as the concentration and culmination of the old one. Robert Cooper, on the Cold War, from The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century What has been emerging into the

daylight since 1989 is not a rearrangement of the old system but a new system. Behind this lies a new form of statehood, or at least states that are behaving in a radically different way from the past. Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century

The image of peace and order through a single hegemonic power center [is wrong]. It was not the empires but the small states that proved to be a dynamic force in the world. Empires are illdesigned for promoting change. Holding an empire together requires an authoritarian political style; innovation leads to instability. Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first

Century Read This! The new century risks being overrun by both anarchy and technology. The two great destroyers of history may reinforce each other. Both the spread of terrorism and that of weapons of mass destruction point to a world in which Western governments are losing control. The spread of the technology of

mass destruction represents a potentially massive redistribution of power away from the advanced industrial (and democratic) states and toward smaller states that may be less stable and have less of a stake in an orderly world; or more dramatically still, it may represent a redistribution of power away from the state itself and towards individuals, that is to say terrorists or criminals. In the past to be damaging, an ideological movement had to be widespread to recruit enough support to take on authority. Henceforth, comparatively small groups will be able to do the sort of damage which before only state armies or major revolutionary movements could achieve. A

few fanatics with a dirty bomb or biological weapons will be able to cause death on a scale not previously envisaged. Emancipation, diversity, global communicationall of the things that promise an age of riches and creativity could also bring a nightmare in which states lose control of the means of violence and people lose control of their futures.Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century Reflect.

The two systemsthe modern based on balance and the post-modern based on opennessdo not coexist well together. Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century Before we can talk about the security requirements for today

and tomorrow, we have to forget the security rules of yesterday. Robert Cooper, The Breaking of Nations: Order and Chaos in the Twenty-first Century IT MAY SOMEDAY BE SAID THAT THE 21ST

CENTURY BEGAN ON SEPTEMBER 11, 2001. Al-Qaeda represents a new and profoundly dangerous kind of organizationone that might be called a virtual state. On September 11 a virtual state proved that modern societies are vulnerable as never before.Time/09.09.2002

The deadliest strength of Americas new adversaries is their very fluidity, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld believes. Terrorist networks, unburdened by fixed borders, headquarters or conventional forces, are free to study the way this nation responds to threats and adapt themselves to prepare for what Mr. Rumsfeld is certain will be another attack. Business as usual wont do it, he said. His

answer is to develop swifter, more lethal ways to fight. Big institutions arent swift on their feet in adapting but rather ponderous and clumsy and slow. The New York Times/09.04.2002 From: To:

Weapon v. Weapon Org structure v. Org structure Our military structure today is essentially one developed and

designed by Napoleon. Admiral Bill Owens, former Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff The organizations we created have become tyrants. They have taken control, holding us fettered, creating barriers that hinder rather than help our businesses. The lines that we

drew on our neat organizational diagrams have turned into walls that no one can scale or penetrate or even peer over. Frank Lekanne Deprez & Ren Tissen, Zero Space: Moving Beyond Organizational Limits. In an era when terrorists use satellite

US gatekeepers stand armed against them with pencils and paperwork, and archaic computer systems that dont talk to each other. phones and encrypted email, Boston Globe (09.30.2001)

Dawn Meyerreicks, CTO of the Defense Information Systems Agency, made one of the most fateful military calls of the 21st century. After 9/11 her office quickly leased all the available transponders covering Central Asia. The implications should change everything about U.S. military thinking in the years ahead. The U.S. Air Force had kicked off its fight against the Taliban with an ineffective bombing campaign, and Washington was anguishing over whether to send in a few Army divisions. Donald Rumsfeld told Gen. Tommy Franks to

give the initiative to 250 Special Forces already on the ground. They used satellite phones, Predator surveillance drones, and GPS- and laser-based targeting systems to make the air strikes brutally effective. In effect, they Napsterized the battlefield by cutting out the middlemen (much of the militarys command and control) and working directly with the real players. The data came in so fast that HQ revised operating procedures to allow intelligence analysts and attack planners to work directly together. Their favorite tool, incidentally, was instant messaging over a secure network.Ned Desmond/Broadbands New Killer App/Business

2.0/ OCT2002 The mechanical speed of combat vehicles has not increased since Rommels day, so the difference is all in the operational speed, faster communications and faster decisions. Edward Luttwak, on the

unprecedented pace of the move toward Baghdad If early soldiers idealized Napoleon or Patton, network-centric warriors admire Wal*Mart, where point-of-sale scanners share information on a near realtime basis with suppliers and also produce data that is mined to help leaders develop new strategic or tactical plans. Wal*Mart is an example of translating information into

competitive advantage.Tom Stewart, Business 2.0 The New Infantry Battalion/ New York Times/12.01.2002 Pentagons Urgent Search for Speed. 270 soldiers (1/3rd normal complement); 140 robotic off-road armored trucks. Every soldier is a

sensor. Revolutionary capabilities. Find-to-hit: 45 minutes to 15 minutes in just one year. Armies are like plants, immobile, firm-rooted, nourished through long stems to the head guerillas: might be a vapour; fighting guerillas like eating soup

with a knife Source: T.E. Lawrence Erics Army Flat. Fast. Agile. Adaptable. Light But Lethal.

Talent/ I Am an Army of One. Info-intense. Network-centric. Float like a butterfly. Sting like a bee. Ali

To fight terrorism with an army is like trying to shoot a cloud of mosquitoes with a machine gun. Review of Terror in the Name of God/NYT/11.2003

Rather than have massive armies that people can go along and inspect, it is now about having rapidly deployable expediency forces that can be dropped by land, sea or air and with full support. MoD official, on Defense Secretary Geoff Hoons defense white paper (12.2003)

We must not only transform our armed forces but the Defense Department that serves them by encouraging a culture of creativity and intelligent risktaking. We must promote a more entrepreneurial approach: one that encourages people to be proactive, not reactive, and to behave less like bureaucrats and more like venture capitalists; one that does not wait for

threats to emerge and be validated, but rather anticipates them before they appear and develops new capabilities to dissuade them and deter them. Donald Rumsfeld, Foreign Affairs Boyd OODA Loop/Boyd Cycle Unraveling the competition/ Quick

Transients/ Quick Tempo (NOT JUST SPEED!)/ Agility/ So quick it is disconcerting (adversary over-reacts or under-reacts)/ Winners used tactics that caused the enemy to unravel before the fight (NEVER HEAD TO HEAD) BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)

Fast Transients Buttonhook turn (YF16: could flick from one maneuver to another faster than any aircraft) BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram) Blitzkrieg is far more than lightning thrusts that most people think of

when they hear the term; rather it was all about high operational tempo and the rapid exploitation of opportunity./ Arrange the mind of the enemy.T.E. Lawrence/ Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.Ali BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram)

F86 vs. MiG/Korea/10:1 Bubble canopy (360 degree view) Full hydraulic controls (The F86 driver could go from one maneuver to another faster than the MiG driver) MiG: faster in raw acceleration and turning ability; F86: quicker in changing maneuvers

BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram) Maneuverists BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram) Thunder Run/3rd Infantry Division/ 04.07.2004/We wanted to create as much chaos as possible.

COL David Perkins/Disorient and demoralizeDHR Strategy meetings held once or twice a year to Strategy meetings needed several times a week Source: New York Times on Meg Whitman/eBay

All Bets Are Off! There will be more confusion in the business world in the next decade than in any decade in

history. And the current pace of change will only accelerate. Steve Case We have no future because our present is too volatile. We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moments

scenarios. Pattern recognition. from William Gibson, Pattern Recognition Save the date. Dennis Kozlowski and Mark Swartz. Martha Stewart. Scott Sullivan. John Rigas. Walter Forbes and Kirk Shelton. Frank Quattrone. Richard Scrushy. Misc.

Enronnies Source: Headline/Business Day/NYT/01.08.2004 We are in a brawl with no rules. Paul Allaire

S.A.V. I Believe 1. Change will accelerate. DRAMATICALLY. 2. We will RE-INVENT THE WORLD IN THE NEXT TWO GENERATIONS. (Business Health Care Politics War Education Fundamentals of Human

Interaction.) 3. OPPORTUNITIES are matchless. 4. You are either ON THE BUS or OFF THE BUS. 5. I WANT TO PLAY! AND YOU? Successful Businesses Dozen Truths: TPs 30-Year Perspective 1. Insanely Great & Quirky Talent.

2. Disrespect for Tradition. 3. Totally Passionate (to the Point of Irrationality) Belief in What We Are Here to Do. 4. Utter Disbelief at the Bullshit that Marks Normal Industry Behavior. 5. A Maniacal Bias for Execution and Utter Contempt for Those Who Dont Get It. 6. Speed Demons. 7. Up or Out. (Meritocracy Is Thy Name. Sycophancy Is Thy Scourge.) 8. Passionate Hatred of Bureaucracy.

9. Willingness to Lead the Customer and Take the Heat Associated Therewith. (Mantra: Satan Invented Focus Groups to Derail True Believers.) 10. Reward Excellent Failures. Punish Mediocre Successes. 11. Courage to Stand Alone on Ones Record of Accomplishment Against All the Forces of Conventional Wisdom. 12. A Crystal Clear Understanding of Brand Power. It is the foremost task

and responsibility of our generation to re-imagine our enterprises, private and public. from the Foreword, Re-imagine How we feel about the evolving future tells us who we are as individuals and as a civilization: Do we search

for stasisa regulated, engineered world? Or do we embrace dynamisma world of constant creation, discovery and competition? Do we value stability and control? Or evolution and learning? Do we think that progress requires a central blueprint? Or do we see it as a decentralized, evolutionary process? Do we see mistakes as permanent disasters? Or the correctable byproducts of experimentation? Do we crave predictability? Or relish surprise? These two poles,

stasis and dynamism, increasingly define our political, intellectual and cultural landscape. Virginia Postrel, The Future and Its Enemies Lets competeby training the best workers, investing in R & D, erecting the best infrastructure and building an education system that graduates students who rank with

the worlds best. Our goal is to be competitive with the best so we both win and create jobs. Craig Barrett (Time/03.01.04) Age of Agriculture Industrial Age Age of Information Intensification Age of Creation Intensification

Source: Murikami Teruyasu, Nomura Research Institute The Creative Class derives its identity from its members roles as purveyors of creativity. Because creativity is the driving force of economic growth, in terms of influence the Creative Class has become the dominant class in

society. Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class (38M, 30%) The Ownership Society (GWB): This is a bundle of proposals that treat workers as self-reliant pioneers who rise through several employers and careers. To thrive, these pioneers need survival tools. They need to own their

own capital reserves, their retraining programs, their own pensions and their own health insurance. David Brooks/ NYT/12.20.03 For Marx, the path to social betterment was through collective resistance of the proletariat to the economic injustices of the capitalist system that produced such misshapenness and

fragmentation. For Emerson, the key was to jolt individuals into realizing the untapped power of energy, knowledge, and creativity of which all people, at least in principle, are capable. He too hated all systems of human oppression; but his central project, and the basis of his legacy, was to unchain individual minds. Lawrence Buell, Emerson

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