Joe Clare - What's changing in what's being stolen? Examining ...

Joe Clare - What's changing in what's being stolen? Examining ...

Whats changing in whats being stolen? Examining 11-years of residential burglaries in Western Australia Applied Research in Crime and Justice Conference Dr Joe Clare 13-14 February 2019 UWA School of Law Sydney, NSW Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Western Australian Police Force for making their data available for this analysis 2 1 What I want to cover What we already know Other things that matter Data/hypotheses Findings Who cares? 3 1 1. What we already know 10 principles of opportunity and crime 1.

Opportunities play a role in causing all crime 2. Crime opportunities are highly specific 3. Crime opportunities are concentrated in time and space 4. Crime opportunities depend on every day movements 5. One crime produces another 6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities 7. Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities 8. Opportunities for crime can be reduced 9. Reducing opportunities does not usually displace crime

10. Focused opportunity reduction can produce wider declines in crime Source: Felson, M., & Clarke, R.V. (1998). Opportunity makes the thief: practical theory for crime prevention 5 10 principles of opportunity and crime 1. Opportunities play a role in causing all crime 2. Crime opportunities are highly specific 3. Crime opportunities are concentrated in time and space 4. Crime opportunities depend on every day movements 5. One crime produces another 6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities 7. Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities

8. Opportunities for crime can be reduced 9. Reducing opportunities does not usually displace crime 10. Focused opportunity reduction can produce wider declines in crime Source: Felson, M., & Clarke, R.V. (1998). Opportunity makes the thief: practical theory for crime prevention 6 6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities Not all products are equally at risk for theft Products are more attractive to thieves when they are C oncealable easier to remove, transport, and dispose R emovable you have to take it to steal it A vailable macro-, meso- , and micro- level availability V aluable without value, it is not worth stealing E njoyable relates to disposability of items greater demand D isposable stolen goods are generally converted into cash/drugs 7 6. Some products offer more tempting

crime opportunities Not all products are equally at risk for theft Products are more attractive to thieves when they are C oncealable easier to remove, transport, and dispose R emovable you have to take it to steal it A vailable macro-, meso-, and micro -level availability V aluable without value, it is not worth stealing E njoyable relates to disposability of items greater demand D isposable stolen goods are generally converted into cash/drugs CRAVED items can change over time as a function of market forces (the life-cycle theory, Wellsmith and Burrell, 2005, Brit.J.Crim) Stable CRAVED jewellery, gold, cash Variable CRAVED small electronic goods, clothes 8 6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities

Source: Wellsmith, M., & Burrell, A. (2005). The influence of purchase price and ownership levels on theft targets. British Journal of Criminology, 45(5), 741-764. 9 6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities Source: Sidebottom, A. et al. (2011). Theft in price-volatile markets: on the relationship between copper price and copper theft. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 48(3), 396-418. 10 7. Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities Mass-produced consumer goods pass through a life-cycle Innovation restricted, special small group of consumers Growth products cheaper, easier to use, more common, desired Mass market product becomes endemic Saturation most people who want one, already have one

Source: Wellsmith, M., & Burrell, A. (2005). The influence of purchase price and ownership levels on theft targets. British Journal of Criminology, 45(5), 741764. 11 7. Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities The variations observed matched the market saturation of these products in the domestic market and were consistent with the normal product life-cycle Products are most vulnerable in their 'growth' and mass market' stages, as demand for them is at its highest Most products will reach a 'saturation' stage where most people have them and they then are unlikely to be stolen 12 8. Opportunities for crime can be reduced If this wasnt true, no one would bother Locking cars/houses Keeping money in a safe place

Telling young children to avoid strangers Watching the neighbours house when theyre away The opportunity reducing methods of situational crime prevention can be applied to all aspects of everyday life, but they must be tailored to specific situations The Security Hypothesis as an explanation for the Global Crime Drop Parsimonious to local changes and global trends See work by Farrell and colleagues (2010 onwards) for more detail Works very well for vehicle theft and electronic immobilisers 13 8. Opportunities for crime can be reduced Domestic burglary in a dwelling

Percent with entry Percent with loss 10.0 70% 9.0 60% 8.0 50% 7.0 % dwellings 5.0 30% 6.5% in 1993 1.7% in 2018 4.0 % burglaries 40% 6.0

20% 3.0 10% 2.0 0% 1.0 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Source: CSEW domestic burglary in a dwelling -10% 14 1

CSEW Domestic burglary in a dwelling Domestic burglary in a dwelling Percent with entry 10.0 Percent with loss 70% 0.8 percentage point decline 9.0 60% 8.0 Security? 50% 7.0 % dwellings 5.0 30% 4.0 % burglaries

40% 6.0 20% 3.0 10% 2.0 0% 1.0 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Source: CSEW domestic burglary in a dwelling

-10% 15 1 CSEW Domestic burglary in a dwelling Domestic burglary in a dwelling Percent with entry Percent with loss 70% 9.0 Tseloni et al. (2017) Security Journal 8.0 Used CSEW (2008-12) to estimate security protection influence of target hardening strategies 7.0 % dwellings 6.0 Most effective individual devices: external lights and door dead locks 5.0

Door/window locks + external lights + security chains 20 times greater protection (relative to no devices) 4.0 3.0 60% 50% 40% 30% % burglaries 10.0 20% 10% 2.0 0% 1.0 - 1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Source: CSEW domestic burglary in a dwelling -10% 16 1 8. Opportunities for crime can be reduced Source: Brown, 2015, Trends and Issues 495, Australian Institute of Criminology 17 2. Other things that matter CSEW Domestic burglary in a dwelling Domestic burglary in a dwelling Percent with entry Percent with loss

10.0 70% 9.0 60% 8.0 7.9 percentage50% point decline 7.0 40% 6.0 Less stuff worth taking? 5.0 4.0 30% 20% 3.0 10%

The equivalent time window Im looking at for WA 2.0 0% 1.0 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Source: CSEW domestic burglary in a dwelling -10% 19 1

Evidence there is less stuff of value Source: Brown, 2015, Trends and Issues 495, Australian Institute of Criminology 20 Evidence there is less stuff of value Shaw et al. (2015) Crime and the Value of Stolen Goods (Home Office Report) Used responses to the CSEW over a 20 year period Found the average value of a single theft declined by 35% Concluded value, availability, and disposability were key drivers in what gets stolen Source: Brown, 2015, Trends and Issues 495, Australian Institute of Criminology 21 Australian trends victim surveys 12-month burglary victimisation, 2010-2017 ABS 10% decline in absolute number 260,000 240,000 220,000

200,000 180,000 6% decline in absolute number 160,000 140,000 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Burglary 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Attempted burglary Source: Extracts from Table 20 and 21 of Crime Victimisation Australia (ABS 4530), various years 22 1 Australian trends victim surveys

12-month burglary victimisation, 2010-2017 ABS 10% decline in absolute number 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 Arguably, wed expect to see an increase in attempted burglary, if security was the only reason for the decline in success? 180,000 6% decline in absolute number 160,000 140,000 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Burglary

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Attempted burglary Source: Extracts from Table 20 and 21 of Crime Victimisation Australia (ABS 4530), various years 23 1 Australian trends police recorded crime UEWI Victims, 2010-2017 ABS data 15% decline in absolute number 70% 240,000 69% 200,000 68% 160,000 67% 120,000 66% 80,000

65% 40,000 0 4 percentage 64% point decline 1 2 3 4 Unlawful entry with intent 5 6 7 8 63% % UEWI with property loss Source: Extracts from Table 1 Recorded Crime Victims Australia (ABS 4510), 2018 24 1 Why are people getting in and not taking

things and/or less people are bothering? Idea 1: cash is sooooooo 2007 Implications for the availability-side of CRAVED 25 1 Why are people getting in and not taking things and/or less people are bothering? Idea 2: phones have replaced a lot of other stuff we used to have/need Source: https://www.geckoandfly.com/13143/50-things-smartphone-replaced-will-replace-future/ 26 1 Why are people getting in and not taking things and/or less people are bothering? Idea 3: stuff people want gets older, quicker Technology based commodities such as mobile phones and computers have shorter innovation cycle so that the previous generation becomes obsolete faster, either functionally or psychologically.

Lebreton & Tuma (2006) A quantitative approach to assessing the profitability of car and truck tire remanufacturing. Int J Production Economics Product life cycle in electronic industry is shorter than before due to technology advances, and as a result, an outdated product could reach its end-of-use even if it is still in a good condition. Hsueh (2011) An inventory control model with consideration of remanufacturing and product life cycle. Int J Production Economics Implications for the market-side (value/disposability) of CRAVED 27 1 3. Data/hypotheses Hypotheses I dont have data for security changes, and it doesnt look like thats the only thing going on, so Looking within the properties and using CRAVED as a starting point 1. 2. Availability-related: More burglaries with no loss reported because a. Reduced cash reported stolen due to declining use of cash generally b.

Fewer suitable targets because phones have replaced other suitable targets (e.g., cameras, tablets, stereos, e-readers) Valuable/Disposable-related: Very short periods of attractiveness for specific high-value electronic products that are rapidly replaced on legitimate market 29 1 Data All residential burglaries in WA between 2007 and 2017 (inclusive) o 284,426 events (187,747 with loss recorded 66%) o 1.29 million records of stolen items Repeat victimisation present o 1,546 properties experienced 4 or more burglaries with loss since 2007 (0.7% of victims experienced 3.8% of burglaries) Cash and jewellery still king o

Cash stolen in 31% of burglaries with loss o Jewellery stolen in 22% of burglaries with loss 30 1 4. Findings Availability: burglary with no loss (H1) Burglary dwellings victimisation per year Rate % with loss 4.0% 70% 0.5 percentage point decline 69% 3.0% 68% 2.5% 67% 2.0%

66% 1.5% 65% 1.0% 64% 1 percentage point decline 0.5% 0.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 % of all burglaries with loss % burglary prevalence 3.5% 63% 11 62% 32 1 Availability: trends for cash (H1a) Cash and jewellery stolen ($) per burglary Rate of cash stolen per burglary Rate of jewellery stolen RBA cash usage estimates 50% 80.0% Transactions more than $22 done by card 70.0%

40% 60.0% 35% 50.0% 30% 40.0% 25% 30.0% 20% 20.0% Cash theft:Cash Use r = 0.83 15% 10% 1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 % RBA transactions % burglary prevalence 45% 10.0% 10 11 0.0% 33 1 Availability: the impact of phones (H1b) Impact of phones on suitable targets Mobile phone 25% Camera

Digital camera shipments 140 Biometric security on smartphones became mainstream 120 20% % burglary prevalence 100 15% Higher resolution smart phones commenced 80 60 10% 40 5% 20 r = 0.97 0% 2007 2008

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 2017 34 1 Value/Disposability: gaming consoles (H2) Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/276768/global-unit-sales-of-video-game-consoles/ 35 1 Value/Disposability: gaming consoles (H2) Xbox One 300 18

16 12 10 150 8 100 6 r = 0.45 4 200 150 r = 0.74 2 1 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 50 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Xbox 360 (theft)

5 4 3 100 2 Xbox 360 (sales) Xbox One (theft) Xbox One (sales) Nintendo Wii 30 r = 0.54 1,000 25 800 20 600 15 400 10

200 5 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Nintendo Wii (theft) Nintendo Wii (sales) Units sold (millions) 1,200 # stolen # stolen 200 10 9 8 7 6 250 # stolen 14

Units sold (millions) 250 50 300 Units sold (millions) Xbox 360 36 1 Value/Disposability: gaming consoles (H2) 16 1,200 14 12 10 800 8 600 200 4

r = 0.75 2 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Playstation 3 Console (theft) Playstation 3 Console (sales) 250 200 150 25 20 15 10 r = 0.92 100 5 50 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Playstation 4 Console (theft) Playstation 4 Console (sales) Playstation Portable 600

r = 0.92 500 400 16 14 12 10 300 8 6 200 4 100 2 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 PlayStation Portable (theft) PlayStation Portable (sales) Units sold (millions) 400

6 # stolen # stolen 1,000 500 450 400 350 300 37 1 Units sold (millions( 1,400 # stolen Playstation 4 Units sold (millions) Playstation 3 Value/Disposability: gaming consoles (H2) Global sales figures vs. value of burgled consoles Value burgled consoles Sales (million units)

$800,000 70 $700,000 r = 0.86 60 $600,000 Annual $ value $500,000 40 $400,000 30 $300,000 Annual unit sales (millions) 50 20 $200,000 10 $100,000 $0 2008

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 2017 38 1 Value/Disposability: digital cameras (H2) 39 1 Value/Disposability: digital cameras (H2) Impact of phones on suitable targets Mobile phone Camera Digital camera shipments 25%

140 120 % burglary prevalence 100 15% 80 Instagram commenced Oct 2010 60 10% 40 5% Camera thefts:Camera shipments r = 0.96 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010

2011 2012 2013 2014 Annual shipped units (million) 20% 20 2015 2016 0 2017 40 1 Value/Disposability: digital cameras (H2) 41 5. Who cares? Summing it up Decline in burglary with loss Less cash being taken, in a pattern that matches cash usage decline (jewellery stolen at the same rate)

Fewer cameras stolen (aligned with improved smart phone cameras) and fewer phones stolen (aligned with biometric introduction) Shorter product life-cycle influencing demand and value for specific stolen goods o Value determined by location in the life-cycle relative to other similar products Looking within-product categories is important to see trends 43 1 Implications for theory Making things less available (within properties) and less disposable/ valuable is likely having an impact on reducing offender motivation to commit burglaries This idea is compatible with the security hypothesis and can operate in parallel Also compatible with explanations of offending that draw on cognitive psychology (domain-specific expertise) and economics o Offenders have reduced opportunity to learn how to be an effective burglar fewer available targets (macro- and meso-level) and less chance to gain financial reward o A no-result burglary and/or failed attempts to sell items that are stolen may well influence the perceived utility of burglary o

Reducing the attractiveness of engaging in this crime in the future 44 1 Practical implications Clear implications for targeted prevention interventions Continue to design-in/create techniques to reduce disposability of stolen goods o e.g., phone kill switches, immobilizers, preferred purchasers of second hand metal, bike registers Continue to disrupt stolen goods markets (traditional and emerging e-markets), using current trends in burglary and stolen goods data to prioritise focus o The market reduction approach (see Sutton) Potential for long-term sustainable crime prevention without arrest or conviction (much like car immobilisers) 45 1 Where to next? Use available data to monitor trends Find out more about the stolen goods market in Australia o The more we know, the more we can do to disrupt it Explore what is increasing Compare these signatures with other jurisdictions Consider displacement (e.g., burglary with vehicle theft) Consider links with repeat victimisation

o What is being taken at these separate events, timing, value, etc. 46 1 Thank you Dr Joe Clare UWA School of Law +61 8 6488 7956 [email protected] 47 1 48 6. Some products offer more tempting crime opportunities 49 1 7. Social and technological changes produce new crime opportunities 50 Repeat victimisation is to be expected ABS survey data shows that each year only about 2.2% of households experience a break-in Source. ABS 4530.0 Crime Victimisation Australia 2016-17

51 WA burglary with loss repeat victimisation Victimisation Frequency J-Curve 100% 90% 86.9% 80% 70% 60% 50% 1,546 properties experienced 4 or more burglaries with loss since 2007 (0.7% of victims experienced 3.8% of burglaries) 40% 30% 20% 10.6% 10%

0% 1 2 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 3 4 5 or more 52 1 Trends in bike usage Australia 53 1 Value/Disposability: Xbox (H3) X-Box console variations rate per burglary per year 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% X-box

discontinued 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -0.5% X Box Console (rate per burglary)

XBOX 360 Console (rate per burglary) Xbox One (rate per burglary) 54 1 Value/Disposability: Xbox (H3) X-Box console variations rate per burglary per year 3.0% 2.5% X-box 360 sold 72million units world wide 3 times more than X-box 2.0% Lower resale demand 1.5% X-box 360 discontinued 1.0% X-box 360 released June 2006 0.5% 0.0% 2007

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 -0.5% X Box Console (rate per burglary) XBOX 360 Console (rate per burglary) Xbox One (rate per burglary) 55 1 Value/Disposability: Xbox (H3) X-Box console variations rate per burglary per year 3.0%

2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% X-box One released Nov 2013 0.5% 0.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2017 -0.5% X Box Console (rate per burglary) XBOX 360 Console (rate per burglary) Xbox One (rate per burglary) 56 1 Value/Disposability: Playstation (H3) Playstation console variations rate per burglary per year 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Playstation 1 released 1995 selling 105 million units 3% 2%

1% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 Playstation 1 Console 2011 2012 Playstation 2 Console 2013 2014 Playstation 3 Console 2015 2016 2017 Playstation 4 Console 57 1

Value/Disposability: Playstation (H3) 8% 7% Playstation console variations rate per burglary per year Playstation 2 released 2000 selling 155 million units 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010

Playstation 1 Console 2011 2012 Playstation 2 Console 2013 2014 Playstation 3 Console 2015 2016 2017 Playstation 4 Console 58 1 Value/Disposability: Playstation (H3) Playstation console variations rate per burglary per year 8% 7% 6% Playstation 3

released Nov 2006 selling 84 million 4% units 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 Playstation 1 Console 2011 2012 Playstation 2 Console 2013 2014 Playstation 3 Console

2015 2016 2017 Playstation 4 Console 59 1 Value/Disposability: Playstation (H3) Playstation console variations rate per burglary per year 8% 7% 6% Playstation 4 released Nov 2013 selling 81 million units 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 Playstation 1 Console 2011 2012 Playstation 2 Console 2013 2014 Playstation 3 Console 2015 2016 2017 Playstation 4 Console 60 1

More to find out: what is being stolen? Avg cash value ($) and quantity of items per burglary Cash value of items stolen 18.0 $5,000 16.0 $4,500 $4,000 Avg. # items stolen per burglary 14.0 $3,500 12.0 $3,000 10.0 $2,500 8.0 $2,000 6.0 $1,500 4.0 $1,000

2.0 0.0 2007 Avg. value ($) of items stolen per burglary Quantity of items stolen $500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $2017 61 1

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