Approach to Transportation Planning for Connected and Automated Vehicles Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations Annual Conference Fort Worth, Texas October 2016 July 1969, IEEEquestion Spectrum There seems little that vehicle automation is technologically
feasible; The Electronic Highway, by Robert however, a tremendous amount of effort in E. Fenton and Karl W. Olson, Ohio both research and development will be State University required before a satisfactory automatic system is in operation. This effort must involve not only vehicle-control studies, but also an intensive investigation of the present drivervehicle complex, since the knowledge gained will be necessary for the proper specification and introduction of the control system
components. Further, the need exists for intensive overall system studies so that optimum strategies can be chosen for headway spacing control, merging and lane changing, and the interfacing of automated highways with other modes of future transportation. Transportation Planning is Changed The landscape of transportation planning is different today from the past several decades Predictable Changes from the past increase in women entering the workforce in greater numbers decrease in household sizes no paradigm to follow on the scale/magnitude of CAV
unpredictability of the impacts of CAV This leaves todays transportation planners with the dilemma of expecting transformation changes from technology but not being able to adequately determine the impact that the technology will have. CAVs Potentially Addresses All Goal Areas
Safety Infrastructure Condition Congestion Reduction System Reliability Freight Movement and Economic Vitality Environmental Sustainability Reduced Project Delivery Delays Additional Expected Benefits
Innovation Economy Repurposed/Reoriented Land Use/Growth Increased Productivity Improved Workplace Mobility Improved Accessibility and Equity Improved Livability Active Transportation Less Noise Pollution What Planners May be Thinking
Unawareness of Potential Impacts Skepticism Uncertainty Too Far Removed to Consider Now Many Game Changers; not just AV Planning for Cars that Drive Themselves Erick Guerra, University of Pennsylvania, 2015 3 Keys to Transportation Planning for AV/CV 1. Research and Monitor
Behavioral Changes 2. Forecast AV/CV Impacts 3. Scenario Planning for Uncertain Future With AV/CV Without AV/CV 1. Research and Monitor Behavioral Changes Polling Attitudes and Stated Preference Refining over Time with Revealed Data Seek to Develop Greater and Better use of Passive Data
Coordination with Private Sector vendors and aggregators Research and Demonstration Projects As Connected Automated Vehicle (CAV) replace AV, secure public access to data 1. Research and Monitor Behavioral Changes (cont.) Seek to Build Integrated Data System for: Public Data Policy, Technology, and Sharing Needs for AV Integrated Data System Policy: Cooperatively Determine which Data is held
Privately and which Data can/must be in Public Domain Technology: Create Transportation Management Centers (TMCs) and other Public Institutions to Gather, Process, Disseminate Data Sharing: Create and Incentivize Data Sharing at ALL Levels User Trip/Tour Planning Corporate - value added services Public Agency Planning, Research & Development 2. Forecast AV/CV Impacts Demonstrate Capacity Impacts/Potential of AV/CV Digitally using Computer Models Testbeds, connecting physical vehicles and infrastructure Field Testing, AI Development
Estimate Impacts with Existing Tools Develop and Implement New Tools as Deployment Occurs Do both Regional Modeling and Regional Simulation Modeling (Calibrated to observed behavioral data) Simulation (Impose scenarios into modeling frameworks) 3. Scenario Planning Education, Training Develop Reasonable Scenarios, Timeframes Coordinate Common Themes across Regions Scenario Planning is The use of multiple possible futures to assess
various impacts and prepare for them Active stakeholder engagement Designed for Uncertain Futures Not the same as alternatives analysis Not planning as usual Scenario Planning Alternatives Analysis Multiple Futures Pick One and Stick with It Uncertain, descriptive
Measureable, quantifiable Focus on Magnitude and Likelihood Focus on Timeframe and Trend Reliance on Prediction could be Detrimental Accurate Prediction is Assumed Variations in Impacts, focus on Relationships
Maximize Specifically Desired Benefits Needs Judgement, Assessment of impacts from Multiple Scenarios One Decision is Clearly Better than Others and Impacts from Losers are not considered Active Public Engagement Active Public Engagement A Simple Difference:
Alternatives Analysis Assess multiple futures, then pick one Scenario Analysis Assess multiple futures, prepare for impacts Scenario Planning Process Scenario Planning Process (Automated Futures) Develop Alternative Scenarios AV/CV - Use Cases Determine Fundamental Impacts from all Scenarios
Requires acceptance of risk in initial years Better confidence as deployment occurs Assess both Likelihood and Magnitude of Impacts Better confidence as deployment occurs Consolidate Plans to Address Most Likely and Impactful Items Dont throw away the less likely/impactful Re-assess Less Likely and Impactful Items Periodically FHWA Scenario Planning Guidebooks: The ultimate outcome is a shared future vision that provides a framework for transportation priorities, goals, recommendations, and investments. Through comparing scenarios and discussing their
possible outcomes, the technique helps participants to identify and challenge assumptions about the future, discuss tradeoffs, and make http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/scenario_and_visualization/scenario_planning/ better decisions. PBPP: Performance Based Planning Process (FHWA) A Framework for Integrating Performance Based Planning and Programming with Scenario Planning Supporting Performance-Based Planning and Programming through Scenario Planning FHWA, June 2016, Hannah Twaddell (ICF), Alanna McKeeman (ICF), Michael Grant (ICF), Jessica Klion (ICF), Uri Avin, Kate Ange (Renaissance), Mike Callahan (Renaissance), Online at
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/scenario_and_visualization/scenario_planning/scenario_planning_guidebook/index.cfm . Accessed July 2016. Scenario-Integrated PBPP PLANNING PLANNING Strategic Direction Where do we want to go? Strategic Direction Where do we want to go? Goals and Objectives
Goals and Objectives Performance Measurement Performance Measurement Analysis How are we going to get there? Analysis How are we going to get there? Scenario Development Identify Trends and Targets Identify Strategies and
Analyze Alternatives Develop Investment Priorities Multiple Scenario Analysis Scenario Consolidation Assess Magnitude and Likelihood Prioritize Actions Conceptual Use Concepts Help to Imagine Operational Characteristics Use Patterns by Various Population Segments Critical Hurdles and Gaps
CAVs, SAVs, Delivery, Freight Some ideas City Center Exclusive Lanes Smart Corridors 7 TC 3 1 4
Transition Facility City Center PNR KNR AV Freight Access 8 TC 9 2
5 10 Mass Transit Manual Auto SAV Private AV Smart Corridor 6 TC Features of City Center Concept
100% AV Zone (AVZ) Smart Corridors/Automated Freight Delivery Transit Transfer Centers Transition Facilities Automated Parking (perimeter/internal) Pricing Schema (TNC/Fleet discount?) Added Safety, Active Transportation, Density, Open Space, Reduced Noise
AV Transition Facility AV mode Bypass (AV Only) Manual mode Transition Facility Guides manually operated vehicles to safe lanes where AV mode is turned on Guides AV to safe zone where driver can take over Other AVs can pass directly through facility
Making decisions based on past certainty when faced with knowledge of an uncertain future is folly. Contact Tom Williams TTI-Austin 512-407-1124 [email protected]
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