Modeling Consumer Decision Making and Discrete Choice Behavior

Modeling Consumer Decision Making and Discrete Choice Behavior

Part 1: Introduction [1/39] Econometric Analysis of Panel Data William Greene Department of Economics University of South Florida Part 1: Introduction [2/39] Panel Data Econometrics

This is a Ph.D. level, course in the area of Applied Econometrics dealing with Panel Data. We are particularly interested in those techniques as they are adapted to the analysis of 'longitudinal' data sets. Topics to be studied include specification, estimation, and inference in the context of models that include individual (firm, person, etc.) effects. Part 1: Introduction [3/39] Part 1: Introduction [4/39]

Panel Data Modeling Outcome(s) yi Model specification: Behavioral description Observation mechanism: Horizontal and time variation Common effects built explicitly into the model:

Observed and unobserved heterogeneity Dynamic effects and behavior Research Community:

Microeconomics, political science, sociology: longitudinal Macroeconomics: Cross country growth and development Transport, marketing: stated choice experiments Health and Health Economics: repeated measures, mixed models Urban & regional economics: hierarchical models Medicine and Social Science/Medicine

Psychology, Education Finance Part 1: Introduction [5/39] Benefits of Panel Data

Time and individual variation in behavior unobservable in cross sections or aggregate time series Observable and unobservable individual heterogeneity Rich hierarchical structures Dynamics in economic behavior Part 1: Introduction [6/39] German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP)

Part 1: Introduction [7/39] Econometric Models

Linear; static and dynamic Discrete choice Censoring, truncation, nonrandom selection Structural models and demand systems Time series models Part 1: Introduction [8/39] Course Applications

Problem sets Data sets: See the course website Software:

Packages: Stata, NLOGIT, SAS, Eviews Programming environments: R, Matlab, Gauss, Mathematica We will not use class time for software instruction Lab work Problem sets Replication project

Part 1: Introduction [9/39] Rosetta Stone for Data Sets: Stat Transfer Part 1: Introduction [10/39] Part 1: Introduction [11/39]

Course Outline Part 1: Introduction [12/39] Part 1: Introduction [13/39] Text Resources Beyond Class Notes

Baltagi (2014); Main text: read chapters 1,2 Greene (2018); Recommended: read chapters 1,2,8,11,13 Wooldridge (2010); Suggested:

read chapters 1,2,4,10,11 Cameron and Trivedi (2005); Very interesting: Microeconometrics Baltagi (2014 Handbook); Surveys and

special topics Matyas and Sevestre (2008); Recent survey. Contributed papers. $$$$$ Hsiao(2014); Alternative to Baltagi

Frees (2004); Applications from Part 1: Introduction [14/39] Part 1: Introduction [15/39] Part 1: Introduction [16/39]

More Data Sets Data sets for Econometric Analysis, 7 and 8 ed. Part 1: Introduction [17/39] Microeconometrics Course

Part 1: Introduction [18/39] Panel Data Sets Longitudinal data short panels

Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), US National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS, US) British household panel survey (BHPS, UK) Understanding Society German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP, Germany) Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS, US) Household income and labor dynamics (HILDA, Australia) Many others Part 1: Introduction [19/39]

Part 1: Introduction [20/39] Part 1: Introduction [21/39] Cross section time series long panels Part 1: Introduction [22/39] Financial data by firm, year huge panels

rit rft = i(rmt - rft) + it, i = 1,,many; t=1,many Exchange rate data, essentially infinite T, large N Effects: i= + vi Part 1: Introduction [23/39] Rotating Panel Data

Part 1: Introduction [24/39] SIPP Rotating Panel The lessons learned from ISDP were incorporated into the initial design of SIPP, which was used for the first 10 years of the survey. The original design of SIPP called for a nationally representative sample of individuals 15 years of age and older to be selected in households in the civilian noninstitutionalized population. Those individuals, along with others who subsequently lived with them, were to be interviewed once every 4 months over a 32-month period. To ease field procedures and spread the work evenly over the 4-month reference period for the interviewers, the Census Bureau randomly divided each panel into four rotation groups. Each rotation group was interviewed in a separate month. Four rotation groups thus constituted one cycle, called a wave, of interviewing for the entire panel. At each interview, respondents were asked to provide

information covering the 4 months since the previous interview. The 4-month span was the reference period for the interview. The first sample, the 1984 Panel, began interviews in October 1983 with sample members in 19,878 households. The second sample, the 1985 Panel, began in February 1985. Subsequent panels began in February of each calendar year, resulting in concurrent administration of the survey in multiple panels. The original goal was to have each panel cover eight waves. However, a number of panels were terminated early because of insufficient funding. For example, the 1988 Panel had six waves; the 1989 Panel, part of which was folded into the 1990 Panel, was halted after three waves. In addition, the intent was for each SIPP panel to have an initial sample size of 20,000 households. That target was rarely achieved; again, budget issues were usually the reason. The 1996 redesign (discussed below) entailed a number of important changes. First, the 1996 Panel spans 4 years and encompasses 12 waves. The redesign has abandoned the overlapping panel structure of the earlier SIPP, but sample size has been substantially increased: the 1996 Panel had an initial sample size of

40,188 households. Part 1: Introduction [25/39] Pseudo panel: Time series of (different) cross sections. E.g., Yearly UK Family Expenditure Survey; 7,000+ different households. What can we learn from these? Part 1: Introduction [26/39] Pseudo Panel

Part 1: Introduction [27/39] also paper29.pdf Part 1: Introduction [28/39] Part 1: Introduction [29/39] Part 1: Introduction [30/39]

Part 1: Introduction [31/39] Part 1: Introduction [32/39] Cornwell and Rupert Data Cornwell and Rupert Returns to Schooling Data, 595 Individuals, 7 Years (1976-1982; Extracted from NLSY.) Variables in the file are EXP = work experience WKS = weeks worked OCC

= occupation, 1 if blue collar, IND = 1 if manufacturing industry SOUTH = 1 if resides in south SMSA = 1 if resides in a city (SMSA) MS = 1 if married FEM = 1 if female UNION = 1 if wage set by union contract ED = years of education LWAGE = log of wage = dependent variable in regressions These data were analyzed in Cornwell, C. and Rupert, P., "Efficient Estimation

with Panel Data: An Empirical Comparison of Instrumental Variable Estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 3, 1988, pp. 149-155. See Baltagi, page 122 for further analysis. The data were downloaded from the website for Baltagi's text. Part 1: Introduction [33/39] Part 1: Introduction [34/39] A Stated Choice Experiment: Unlabeled Alternatives, One Observation t=1 t=2

t=3 t=4 t=5 t=6 t=7 t=8 Part 1: Introduction [35/39] Application: Health Care Panel Data German Health Care Usage Data, 7,293 Individuals, Varying Numbers of Periods

Data downloaded from Journal of Applied Econometrics Archive. This is an unbalanced panel. They can be used for regression, count models, binary choice, ordered choice, and bivariate binary choice. This is a large data set. There are altogether 27,326 observations. The number of observations ranges from 1 to 7. (Frequencies are: 1=1525, 2=1079, 3=825, 4=926, 5=1051, 6=1000, 7=887). DOCTOR = 1(Number of doctor visits > 0) HOSPITAL = 1(Number of hospital visits > 0) HSAT = health satisfaction, coded 0 (low) - 10 (high) DOCVIS = number of doctor visits in last three months HOSPVIS = number of hospital visits in last calendar year

PUBLIC = insured in public health insurance = 1; otherwise = 0 ADDON = insured by add-on insurance = 1; otherswise = 0 HHNINC = household nominal monthly net income in German marks / 10000. HHKIDS = children under age 16 in the household = 1; otherwise = 0 EDUC = years of schooling AGE = age in years MARRIED = marital status

35 Part 1: Introduction [36/39] A 50th Anniversary Part 1: Introduction [37/39] Mundlak, Y., 1961. Empirical production function free of management bias. Journal of Farm Economics 43, 44-56. (Wrote about (omitted) fixed effects.) Rasch, G., Probabilistic Models for Some Intelligence and Attainment Tests, Denmark Paedogiska, 1960. (Points to a fixed effects logit model.)

Part 1: Introduction [38/39] Starting Point for Panel Data Modeling A Dynamic Linear Model Balestra-Nerlove (1966), 36 States, 11 Years Demand for Natural Gas Structure Demand: * Gi,t Gi,t

(1 )Gi,t 1 , = depreciation rate New Demand G*i,t 1,i 2Pi,t 3Ni,t 4Ni,t 5Yi,t 6 Yi,t i,t G=gas demand N = population P = price Y = per capita income Reduced Form Gi,t i 1 2Pi,t 3Ni,t 4Ni,t 5Yi,t 6 Yi,t 7Gi,t 1 i,t Part 1: Introduction [39/39]

Where Do We Go From Here?

Review of familiar classical procedures Fundamental, familiar regression extensions; common effects models Endogeneity, instrumental variables, GMM estimation Dynamic models Models of heterogeneity Nonlinear models that carry forward the features of the linear, static and dynamic common effects models Recent developments in non- and semiparametric approaches

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