Moderling the RE Integration and Energy-X nexus challenges ...

Moderling the RE Integration and Energy-X nexus challenges ...

Modeling the RE Integration and Energy-X nexus challenges for clean power transition Gang He Department of Technology and Society Stony Brook University [email protected] http://www.ganghe.net October 20, 2018 Capacity factor 0.6 2400 TWh Wind 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1 2 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 8 9 10 Month 0.45 Solar 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2

Solar output Onshore wind Offshore wind 815 TWh 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1 Source: He, Gang, and Daniel M. Kammen. 2014, 2016. 2 3 4 5 6 7 Month 11 12

SWITCH-China model structure 31 provinces between which power is sent and within which load is met Transmission availability and capacity Generation Dispatchable generators: coal, hydro, and nuclear Variable wind and solar Cost Annual hourly loads Capital cost Fuel cost SWITCH-China Optim ization Minimize power cost Using generation and transmission Subject to 2020, 2030 and 2050 Cost structure Technology roadmap Technology specific plan RPS: 15% non-fossil target Carbon price: cap and

trade and carbon tax CCS Generation mix , transmission expansions, CO2 emission, Power cost, new capacity expansion or old capacity retirement , investment decisions. Check more about the model: http://www.ganghe.net/research/switch-china-model Scenarios Scenario Description References REF CAP Reference scenario Trajectory to reduce 80% on 1990 level by 2050 Low cost of renewable energy, aggressive learn curve of wind and solar Peak carbon emission by 2030 Assuming the 14 coal-power bases in 7 provinces build half of planned capacity by 2020 and all planned capacity by 2030, No coal in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai by 2030 (Hu et al., 2011)

(IPCC, 2015) LOW PEAK WEST (DOE, 2012) (NDRC, 2015) (NDRC, 2012) 2020 90 2030 2040 2050 $/MWh 80 70 60 50 Source: He, Gang, Anne-Perrine Avrin, James H. Nelson, Josiah Johnston, Ana Mileva, Jianwei Tian, and Daniel M. Kammen. 2016. SWITCH-China: A

Systems Approach to Decarbonizing Chinas Power System. Environmental Science & Technology 50 (11): 546773. Ongoing and future work Energy and water nexus Aggressive renewable cost decline Multiple-objective optimization Demand projections Impact of carbon prices Risks and uncertainties AI for energy Publications Core Publication Gang He, Anne-Perrine Avrin, James H. Nelson, Josiah Johnston, Ana Mileva, Jianwei Tian, and Daniel M. Kammen. 2016. SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing Chinas Power System. Environmental Science and Technology. 50(11):54675473. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.6b01345. [pdf] [Supporting Information] [Poster] Related Publications Gang He, Daniel M. Kammen. 2016. Where, when and how much solar is available? A provincial-scale solar resource assessment for China. Renewable Energy. 85:74-82. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2015.06.027. [pdf] Gang He, Daniel M. Kammen. 2014. Where, when and how much wind is available? A provincial-scale wind resource assessment for China. Energy Policy. 74:116-122. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.07.003. [pdf] Jianlin Hu, Lin Huang, Mindong Chen, Gang He, Hongliang Zhang. 2017. Impacts of Power Generation on Air Quality in China - Part II: Future Scenarios. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 121:115127. doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.04.011 Special Issue: Environmental Challenges and Potential Solutions of Chinas Power Sector. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Issue 121. More information: http://www.ganghe.net

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