The Black Swan, the turkey, and the bell

The Black Swan, the turkey, and the bell

The Black Swan, the turkey, and the bell curve For our turkey, Every day is a good day UNTIL the highly improbable occurs... An outlier? Yes

Extreme impact? Yes Retrospective hindsight? Yes Thanksgiving is the turkeys Black Swan event! Bell Curves Frequency

Bell curves help to hide black swans The Experiment Toss 10 identical coins (Heads/Tails) Note results Repeat 999 other times Plot results on Bell Curve Bell Curves

Frequency What if were looking at the distribution of earthquakes? Black Swan territory No seismic

activity Medium size Catastrophic Bell curves hide randomness and the unpredictable Bell Curves

Frequency What if were looking at the distribution of earthquakes? Black Swan territory

Bell curves hide randomness and the unpredictable 7 So What? We want to avoid being the turkey!

The past doesnt prepare us for the future Avoid the temptation to revert to ABC Agency

always provides XYZ after a disaster We cant predict the future, nor Black Swan events, but they will happen No one agency can do this alone

Pre-event coordination is critical! By focusing on the most likely events, were blind to Black Swans What can we do about it?

Turn Black Swans into white swans by Identifying areas of vulnerability Addressing areas of vulnerability Continuously adapting to avoid becoming the turkey How do you make sure there are no

gaps in the jar??? 10 11 Why Partner with Voluntary, Faith-Based and Community Based Organizations ? Understanding local needs

Flexible High impact / low cost Avoid becoming the turkey! Avoid Predictable Surprises

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