Changing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales
Changing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales Nicola Tromans, Dr Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba Fertility Analysis Unit, ONS Centre for Demography Dr Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds Pauls research has been funded by the ESRC's Understanding Outline 1. National trends in fertility since 1986 2. Have these same trends occurred by region? 3. Fertility trends at LA level 4. Relationship between TFR and age patterns of fertility (LA level) 5. Insight into fertility trends within individual LAs population subgroups which may influence fertility 2007 2006
1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 Total fertility rate Total Fertility Rate, 1986-2007 England and Wales 1.95
1.90 1.85 1.80 1.75 1.70 1.65 1.60 1.55 1.50 1.45 How have age patterns of fertility changed since 1986? (England and Wales) Live births per 1,000 women
140 1986 120 2001 100 2007 80 60 40 20 0 Under 20 20-24 25-29 Age
30-34 35-39 40 and over Further changes in fertility trends since 1986 (England and Wales) Increased % of births occurring outside marriage 21 per cent of births in 1986 44 per cent of births in 2007 Increased % of births to women born outside the UK 12 per cent of births in 1986 23 per cent of births in 2007 Do regional TFR trends differ from national trends? Total Fertility Rate within
Regions TFR pattern for E&W evident for each region - All regions experience a record low TFR in either 2001 or 2002 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 Regional TFRs England and Wales Regional Trends - TFR Regions exhibiting the highest and lowest TFRs have varied Highest TFR 1986-1993 North West, West Midlands, Wales 1994-2006 West Midlands (1.96 in 2006) Lowest TFR
1986-1990 London, North East, South East 1990-1993 London 1994-2005 North East 2006 North East and South West (1.79) Regional Trends most fertile age group In 1986, the most fertile age group in all regions was 25-29 By 2006 the most fertile age group increased to 30-34 in the East and all southern regions. fertility postponement in the south Does the TFR trend at local authority level correspond with the national trend? Distribution of local authority TFRs 1986, 2001, 2006 T o ta l F e rtility R a te 2.50
2.00 1.50 1.00 1986 2001 2006 Which local authorities have the highest TFRs? Number of times LA appeared in top 10 between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive) Newham 21 Blackburn with Darwen UA 21 Luton UA
19 Bradford 19 Hackney and City of London 14 Oldham 14 Tower Hamlets 13 Rochdale 12 Pendle
9 Hyndburn 9 Which local authorities have the lowest TFRs? Number of times LA appeared in bottom 10 between 1986 and 2006 (inclusive) Cambridge 21 Durham 21 Oxford 20 Kensington and Chelsea
19 Camden 16 Hammersmith and Fulham 13 Brighton and Hove UA 12 Exeter 12 Bournemouth UA 7 Berwick-Upon-Tweed
6 How many local authorities experience older age patterns of fertility in 2006? Peak age of fertility Number of local authorities 1986 2001 2006 20-24 15 23 12 25-29
351 237 192 30-34 8 114 169 35-39 0 0 1 (Islington) Relationship between TFR and age patterns of fertility (local authority level)
Do areas where the TFR is low have lower fertility at all ages when compared with areas where the TFR is high? M ean num ber of live births per 1,000 wom en Mean ASFRs in LAs with highest TFR and LAs with lowest TFRs 2006 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Under 20 20-24 Low TFR 2006
25-29 30-34 35-39 Age 40 and over High TFR 2006 Compared 50 LAs with lowest TFR and 50 LAs with highest TFR An insight into fertility in individual local authorities... TFR trends in selected local authorities Total Fertility Rate
1998 2000 2002 Blackburn With Darwen UA 2004 2006 Cambridge Live births per 1,000 wom en Cambridge age patterns of fertility 120 100 80 60 40 20
0 Under 20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 Age 1986 40 and over 2006 TFR 1986 2001
2006 Cambridge 1.35 1.20 1.39 East (Region) 1.75 1.67 1.87 Cambridge Students Presence of HE institutions likely to affect fertility Students lower fertility while studying Graduates tend to enter motherhood later
More noticeable where % of students in population is high Cambridge - births to migrants 41% of births in 2006 were to mothers born outside UK England and Wales 22% Diverse range of countries including 13% EU countries 5% USA, Canada, Australia or New Zealand How do international migrants affect fertility levels? No clear cut relationship between %births to non-UK born mothers and level of fertility in an area considerable variation in fertility levels of women from different countries of birth Birth registration does not use detailed definition of usual residence Short term migrants not included in population estimates
12 month definition of usual residence Key findings fertility patterns since 1986 1. National TFR patterns are reflected at the regional level - not always mirrored at LA level 2. In 1986, all regions experienced peak fertility at ages 25-29. By 2006 the south had increased to 30-34 3. LAs with relatively high TFRs display much higher fertility at younger reproductive ages 4. LAs with relatively low TFRs have an older age pattern for childbearing 5. Population subgroups such as students, graduates and migrants can impact upon period fertility in LAs. [email protected]
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