The Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership: What might it mean

The Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership: What might it mean

The Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership: What might it mean for US agriculture? Ian Sheldon Andersons Professor of International Trade Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP), signed October 5, 2015 largest regional free trade agreement (FTA) struck in past 20 years After 7 years of negotiations, 12 countries agreed to form TPP, although still requires ratification Member countries: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and US

TPP currently accounts for 40% of world GDP, 11% of population and 27% of world trade 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 2 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) 2014 Trade Flows between US and TPP Members ($billion) 658.2 200.9 36.3 47.0 43.6 534.5 0.6 37.4 8.3 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series

16.2 26.1 3 Source: USITC (2015) Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) TPP has emerged amidst uncertainty about global trading system and future role of WTO At same time, wave of bilateral and regional FTAs has affected Asia-Pacific region 39 in existence with others in negotiation Shift from multilateral to regional trade liberalization driven by: (i) multi-polar world

economy; (ii) more complex linkages; (iii) many orthodox trade barriers eliminated Further liberalization requires incremental steps among close partners to simplify negotiations 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 4 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Argued TPP serves several goals: Covers services, investment, competition and regulatory coherence, i.e., deep integration

Provides model for consolidating existing FTAs i.e., way out of Asia-Pacific noodle bowl US will get preferential access to Asian markets affected by existing FTAs involving China, Japan and ASEAN member countries Integration spanning Asia-Pacific likely to deliver greater benefits than narrower agreement 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 5 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Existing FTAs among TPP Countries NAFTA ASEAN

+ Japan ASEAN: Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam ASEAN P-4: Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore ASEAN + Australia and NZ P-4 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series Source: WTO (2015)6 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE)

By 2025, economic benefits expected from TPP*: Vietnamese and Malaysian GDP will increase 10% and 5.6% respectively, i.e., by $36 and $24 billion Income gains reflect benefits from increased trade as well as cross-border investment flows (FDI) Large part of US gains likely to come from FDI, especially in service sector Global GDP will increase by $225 billion US and Japanese GDP will increase 0.4% and 2% respectively, i.e., by $77 and $105 billion 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series

* Source: Peterson Institute (2015) 7 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Petri et al. (2012) forecast US exports of services will increase by $68 billion by 2025, accounting for 69% of increased TPP exports of services US service firms efficient, and high regulatory barriers to service exports and FDI will be reduced Expectation that there will be modest shifts in jobs due to TPP, about 2-6 workers per 10,000 in US workforce of 161-65 million

Even without TPP, job shifts will occur as labor productivity growth outpaces demand, i.e., technological change more important than trade 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 8 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) TPP will reduce more than 18,000 tariffs, including many agricultural products Expected to add an additional $222 billion to world trade by 2025 (Peterson Institute, 2015) Not all tariffs eliminated immediately, but virtually all converge to zero by year 16 of agreement

Notable exception is US automobile sector: 6 members face zero tariffs immediately, 4 members after 10 years of agreement Import tariffs on Japanese trucks will remain at 25% until year 30 of agreement 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 9 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) How Quickly are Tariffs Eliminated in TPP? 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series

Source: Peterson Institute (2015) 10 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Agricultural products in TPP subject to higher average tariffs than manufactures: 5.2% vs. 2% But varies by country and agricultural product: Canadas tariff on US dairy imports is 110%, even though both countries are in NAFTA Japanese tariffs on grains exceed 200% - driven

mostly by its protection of rice sector US tariffs average 3.6% vs. 23% for Japan Mexican tariffs against TPP members average 30.7% vs. 1% against US 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 11 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Japans Tariff Structure 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 12 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Existing FTAs already pushing down tariffs, but by

2025 TPP expected to provide extra boost to trade*: 6% increase in TPP agricultural trade of $8.5 billion Australia, New Zealand and Canada will expand export market shares by 30.5, 12.2 and 11.8% respectively Japan will account for 68% increase in agricultural imports, compared to 10% by both US and Canada Beef and dairy products will account for 25% and 19% respectively of increase in value of TPP trade US agricultural exports to TPP will increase by $2.8 billion a 33% increase in export market share

2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series *Source: USDA/ERS (2014) 13 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) US will benefit from increased market access to countries where it has no FTA, notably Japan 50% of US agricultural exports to Japan will face zero tariffs once TPP is implemented Preferential access will be given under tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) for rice, wheat and barley imported by Japan

With Japan being its 5th largest export market, opening up its agricultural sector has been a longheld objective of US trade policy 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 14 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 15 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Beef: Japan will reduce tariff on fresh, chilled and frozen beef from 38.5 to 9% in 16 years Dairy: Japanese cheese tariffs ranging up to 40%

will be eliminated in 16 years Wheat: Japan will reduce its mark-up on imported wheat under WTO TRQ by 45% over 9 years, and will establish new country-specific quota (CSQ) for US of 114,000 tons Rice: Japan will establish new duty-free CSQ for US rice, quota set at 50,000 tons growing to 70,000 in 13 years 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 16 Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics (AEDE) Overall, US agricultural sector expected to be big

winner from tariff cuts under TPP, with Japan accounting for large share of trade gains TPP will also promote application of risk and science-based SPS measures However - compared to TTIP negotiations, not much movement expected on reduction in nontariff barriers (NTBs) to agricultural trade in TPP Also, no substantial commitment in TPP to reducing level of domestic agricultural support 2015-2016 Agricultural Policy and Outlook Conference Series 17

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