Charlie Kingdollar JANUARY 2018 1 Follow Charlie on:

Charlie Kingdollar JANUARY 2018 1 Follow Charlie on:

Charlie Kingdollar JANUARY 2018 1 Follow Charlie on: ckingdollar.com Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary Proprietary and and Confidential Confidential| | General Reinsurance Corporation 2 The Future of Auto Driverless Cars / Autonomous Vehicles

Tesla Nissan www.hellmotor.com Mercedes www.pcmag.com Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar www.cityam.com Google www.google.com Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 3 The Future of Auto May 18, 2017 44 Corporations Working On Autonomous Vehicles Apple

Ford Man SoftBank Group Audi GM Mercedes-Benz TATA ELXSI Autoliv Honda Microsoft Tesla Baidu Huawei

Mobileye Toyota BMW Hyundai Nissan Valeo Bosch Intel Renault Volkswagen DAF IVECO Nvidia

Volvo Daimler Jaguar PACCAR Waymo Delphi Land Rover PSA Groupe Yutong DiDi Lyft Samsung FCA

Magna Scania Source: CBINSIGHTS Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 4 The Future of Auto Notable Acquisitions in the Autonomous Vehicle Space Company Name Company Acquired Deal Value Closing Date Intel Mobileye

$15.3 Billion 8/2017 Uber Otto $680 Million 8/2016 Verizon Telogis $900 Million 7/2016 Intel Itseez Undisclosed

5/2016 General Motors Cruise Automation $581 Million 5/2016 Lear Corporation Arada Systems Undisclosed 11/2015 Freescale CogniVue Undisclosed 9/2015

Delphi Ottomatika $35 Million 7/2015 Ambarella VisLab $30 Million 7/2015 Delphi Nutonomy $450 Million 10/2017 Source: KPMG, 6/2017

Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 5 The Future of Auto Where are driverless vehicles already on roads? WA OR NY MI PA OH NV DC VA CA AZ

TX FL Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 6 The Future of Auto Autonomous Vehicles Legislation According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, selfdriving legislation has been adopted in 24 states and Washington, D.C. Source: National Conference of State Legislature. Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation

7 The Future of Auto New State Laws 2017 California DMV Officially Propose Autonomous Vehicles Regulations Would allow deployment for public use as opposed to just for testing No longer require a driver behind the wheel Allow deployment of vehicles without steering wheel manual makes or other devices that would allow humans to take control Makes and developers would have to obtain a permit and must meet liability insurance requirements Nevada Governor sings law: Allowing operations, including commercial use, of fully autonomous vehicles Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 8

The Future of Auto Federal Legislation 9/17 U.S. passes the SELF-DRIVE Act Allows more driverless cars on roads 25,000 per manufacturer first year after enactment 100,000 per manufacturer 3 years after enactment Makers required to develop cybersecurity plans Makers required to develop privacy plan One year after enactment NHTSA required to issue rule on safety of autonomous vehicles 1/18 Trump Administration to revisit federal regulations to remove barriers to self-driving vehicles Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 9 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles Makers Taking Four Approaches

1. Incremental approach Favored by traditional auto manufacturers 2. Ground up to fully autonomous Favored by non-standard manufacturers Google, Apple 3. Secondary market accessories Turn newer models into driverless vehicles; currently very limited to certain models 4. Consumer DIY Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 10 The Future of Auto Automated Vehicles Level Level Level

Level Level Level 0 1 2 3 4 5 No Automation Driver Assistance Partial Automation

Conditional Automation High Automation Full Automation Human Driver Monitors Driving Environment Automated Driving System Monitors Driving Environment Source: SAE International Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 11 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles Elephant in the Room Tesla Motors

Upgraded Model S and Model X enabling autonomous driving on highways Summer 2015 Upgrades occurred over the web May 2016 Tesla auto pilot has accumulated 130 million miles May 2016 Tesla autopilots first fatality Some believed this accident would slow down the drive towards fully automated vehicles no one incident will derail the Department of Transportation and NHSTA from its mission to improve safety on the roads According to the head of the NHTSA, Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 12 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles Elephant in the Room Tesla Motors Six month investigation of fatal crash exonerates Teslas Autopilot NHTSA no defect in system

Autopilot repeatedly warned the human to put his hands on the steering wheel prior to crash NHTSA since the addition of Autopilot, crash rate for Teslas have dropped 40% Subsequently NHTSA Tesla system shares some blame System requires driver to place a hand on the wheel periodically doesnt mean driver is actually paying attention System allows driver to use it on roads where use isnt appropriate Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 13 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles Roadblocks Technological Poor Roads

Regulatory Feds v. states Cost Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Acceptance Liability? Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 14 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHY? Human Driving 40,200 deaths in car accidents and 2.44M injuries

2016 over 35,092 fatalities and 2.34M injuries 2015 Source: NHTSA Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 15 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHY? Driverless Vehicles Predicted to Reduce Frequency and Severity Fully autonomous vehicles expected to reduce frequency by 80% 90% Eno Center for Transportation If 90% of vehicles were autonomous: 4.2 million accidents would be avoided

21,700 lives saved If 10% of vehicles were autonomous: 211,000 fewer accidents 1,100 lives saved 7/17 CEO of Nauto U.S.-based autonomous vehicle tech startup some 70% of vehicle loss events will disappear in the course of 10 years Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 16 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHEN? Deloitte 2015: Transformation of vehicles to disrupt industries beginning in 5 15 years January 2016 GM CEO: I believe the auto industry will change more in the next 5 to 10 years than it has in the last 50.

2016 Fortune: Self-driving car technology is improving so quickly that experts believe that it will be mainstream in five years (by 2021). Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 17 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHEN? 2017 Garret Galland Research: 10M self-driving cars on roads by 2020. 1 in 4 willestimates be self-driving by 2030;the but, These (especially one for 2030) are too

conservative Garret Galland Research Former vice chairman and head of product development at Vehicleswill no longer be driven by humans because in GM: 15 to 20 years at the latest human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways. Tipping point will come when 20% to 30% of vehicles are fully autonomous. The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities its dealerships, the media surrounding it all will be gone in 20 years. Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 18 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHEN?

Company Announcements Tesla will be selling fully autonomous cars by 2018 Audi to launch self-driving car in 2018 able to handle 80% of situations GM to launch thousands of driverless Chevy Bolts in 2018 Apple will be selling fully autonomous cars by 2019 Ford, Toyota, Alibaba, Baidu, LeEco and Renault-Nissan shooting for 2020 Nissan to have 10 models with autonomous driving by 2020 BMW fully autonomous cars available by 2021 VW Group various level five fully autonomous cars in 2021 Uber CEO: autonomous vehicles 2028 This is fully all coming much faster by than people anticipate GMs Exec Chief Engineer

Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 19 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHAT? Predicted to Reduce Vehicle Ownership By 40% 99% University of Michigans Transportation Research Institute Driverless cars with an unoccupied return home feature could reduce vehicle ownership by 43% Google driverless cars can reduce the number of cars by 90% Barclays Plc driverless cars could reduce vehicle ownership by 40% by 2025 University of Texas combine Uber with driverless cards and 90% of vehicles unnecessary KPMG predicts a reduction in vehicle ownership could be as high as 99%

Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 20 The Future of Auto Driverless Cars Predicted to Reduce Vehicle Ownership Transportation as a Service (TaaS) ABI Research: 400 million people will rely on robotic car sharing by 2030 2016 Uber starts driverless ride share in Pittsburgh, PA and Phoenix, AZ 2017 Waymo begins driverless ride share in Phoenix, Chandler and Tempe, AZ Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 21 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles

WHAT? Driverless Vehicles Predicted to Reduce Vehicle Ownership Transportation as a Service (TaaS) GM to launch driverless ride share service in several U.S. cities in 2019 Car sharing businesses in addition to ride Maven GM sharing businesses Chariot Shuttle ReachNow BMW Car2Go Daimler Ford Univ. of Calif. Berkeley 2010 Concluded that each shared vehicle replaces 9 13 privately owned vehicles Alix Partners 2014 Concluded that each car sharing vehicle resulted in 32 vehicle purchases avoided Lyfts presidentcar ownership in cities will all but end

Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 22 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHAT? Predicted to Reduce Industry Auto Premium KPMG 2015 auto insurance sector to shrink by 71% ($137B) by 2050 KPMG 2015 While a 50% reduction in premium may not be realistic in the near term, a major correction in premiums must eventually follow the fall in losses. Celent 2015 driverless cars could reduce auto premium by between 30% 60% in 5 10 years If I told you that the auto insurance industry would be cut in half in 20 years, that doesnt feel crazy were talking about almost $100 billion in premium disappearing. Brian Sullivan (Carrier Management 1/16) Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation

23 The Future of Auto Paradigm Shift in Liability Source: Getty Images Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 24 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHAT? Paradigm Shift in Liability! Google, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo and Audi assume all liability for accidents caused by their driverless cars NHTSA encouraging auto makers to assume liability for accidents caused by their driverless cars Michigan 12/16 passes law holding makers liable for accidents when automated driving system is at fault

Texas 6/17 passes law holding makers liable for accidents when automated driving system is at fault as long as the automated driving system hasnt been modified by anyone else Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 25 The Future of Auto WHATs Left? Paradigm Shift in Liability! Comprehensive Flood Hail Etc. Collision likely covered under manufacturers product liability Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation

26 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles WHAT? Paradigm Shift in Liability! Tesla selling car insurance with the purchase of the car in Asia currently using an insurance company soon to be doing the same in Australia Root Insurance (AZ, IN, OH, OK and expanding into six other states in 2018) offering discounts for selfdriving cars UK insurance company offering a discount for Tesla if driver will activate Autopilot system Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 27 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles

WHAT? Ripple Effects Employment Municipalities Body Shops Gas Stations Emergency Rooms Parking Garages Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 28 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles But Insurers Dont Have To Wait For Driverless Cars Lux Research

Within six years 57% of cars on the road will have assisted driving innovations 8% of cars will be as autonomous as todays Google car BI Intelligence 10 million semi-autonomous and self-driving cars on the road by 2020 Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 29 The Future of Auto Assisted Driving Innovations Forward Collision Avoidance Systems Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (2016): Automatic braking technology reducing rear end crashes by 40% Forward collision warning systems, reduced rear-end crashes by 23% Volvo XC60s with auto braking have seen a 33% reduction in injury claims Volkswagen Golf VI reduced personal injury claims by 45% Reduced rear-end crashes by 23%

NTSB 2015 collision avoidance systems could reduce 80% of deaths caused by rear-end collisions and potentially prevent 93% of those injured in rear end crashes Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 30 The Future of Auto Assisted Driving Innovations 2017 Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Lane Keeping Systems Reduces sideswipe and head on crashes by 11% Reduces cashes in which there were injuries by 12% Could cut fatal crashes by 86% Front Lighting Innovations Mazdas equipped with its adaptive front lighting have seen a 10% reduction in the frequency of property claims Similar systems have also reduced the frequency of property claims 9% in certain Volvo models 5% in certain Mercedes models

5% in Acura models Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 31 The Future of Auto Assisted Driving Innovations Of course, all these innovations render vehicles more vulnerable to hackers 2014 and 2016: U.S. government is warning that manufacturers of driverless car technology need to prioritize cybersecurity standards or risk coming under attack from cybercriminals and hackers and terrorists Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 32 The Future of Auto Assisted Driving Innovations Front Crash Avoidance Systems

Also Being Added to Commercial Vehicles Federal Express Purchasing 2,600 tractors with front crash avoidance systems in 2015 Freightliner 46% of Cascadias sold in 2015 had anti-collision system up from 24% in 2014 EU already requires new trucks to have front crash avoidance systems Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 33 The Future of Auto Assisted Driving Innovations Front Crash Avoidance Systems Also Being Added to Commercial Vehicles Oakley Transport Inc., FL 500 trucks 250 with collision avoidance systems 250 without 2014 eight accidents for trucks without collision avoidance systems One accident for trucks with collision avoidance systems

NHTSA 6/16 Study 150 tractor-trailers from seven companies Collision avoidance systems reduced rear-end crashes by up to 87% Reduced rear-end crash costs by nearly 89% Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 34 The Future of Auto Autonomous Trucks www.digitaltrends.com Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 35 The Future of Auto Autonomous Trucks Driverless Commercial Vehicles 10/16 Freight Shuttle International and Texas A&M to produce driverless tractor-trailer Uber (formerly Otto) to retrofit tech onto regular trucks

10/16 Uber in talks with thousands of owner-operator truck drivers about using the companys drivers technology Cost of self-driving systems being added to trucks is from $23,400 $30,000 2/17 Embark launches driverless trucks for highway driving testing on Nevada roads 8/17 Tesla making a driverless, electric, long haul semi-truck capable of platooning; to reveal prototype 9/17 2017 other companies producing driverless trucks Waymo, Daimler, Starsky Robotics, Dirve.ai, Einride (Swedish Firm) and TuSimple (Chinese Firm) Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar TechCrunch.co m Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 36 The Future of Auto Autonomous Truck Scenarios For Roll-Out And Adoption Of Driverless Trucks On Long-distance Routes And In Urban Areas

Long Distance Urban Source: International Transport Forum 2017 Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 37 The Future of Auto Autonomous Truck 9/17 CEO of Alphabets Waymo division (Google) Self-driving trucks may arrive before self-driving taxis Currently, some 3.4 million truck drivers Another 10 million that hold commercial drivers licenses Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation

38 The Future of Auto Autonomous Truck Driverless Vehicles Why driverless trucks? There is currently a shortage of some 50,000 truck drivers in the U.S. Theres no industry on Earth that wouldnt jump at the chance to cut 34% of its operating costs through automation. The drive to reduce costs and increase efficiency will quickly outpace concerns about any possible consequences. digitaltrends.com 2016 Jeff Zwschmeide Self-driving trucks could cut logistics cost by 40% in the U.S. Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Bloomberg, 2017 Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 39

The Most Common Job In Every State Source: NPR Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 40 The Future of Auto Chinese Ehang Source: EHANG Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 41 The Future of Auto Source: A by Airbus Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 42

The Future of Auto Flying Carmakers More than a dozen companies from large to small are now in various stages of creating flying vehicles. Terrafugia Volocopter Kitty Hawk Uber Airbus Group Haynes Aero Moller International Samson Motorworks Xplorair AeroMobil PAL-V

Parajet Joby Aviation Lilium EHANG Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 43 Impact of Driverless Vehicles on MUNICIPALITIES Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary Proprietary and and

Confidential Confidential| | General Reinsurance Corporation 44 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles What do they mean for municipalities? Municipal transportation planning horizons = 15 20 years 2015 The University of Pennsylvania only one of the 25 largest municipal planning organizations even mentioned autonomous vehicles in their regional transportation plans. According to the National League of Cities (NLC) Municipal transportation plans may project out 15 years yet only four (6%) of 68 communities surveyed included the potential effects of driverless cars. 2017 Per the NLC, of 50 large cities surveyed, 38% mentioned autonomous vehicles in their long range transportation Ohio Township Association | Emerging plans. Issues | Charlie Kingdollar

Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 45 Emerging Exposures Facing Municipalities Driverless Vehicles February 2017 Mayors of Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus and Detroit expect fully autonomous cars on their city street in 5 7 years Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 46 The Future of Auto

Where Cities Anticipated Uses of Autonomous Vehicles Last Mile Transit Taxis Mass Transit Freight Paratransit Personal Vehicles / Pods Municipal Fleets Private Autos Local Delivery 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Data: Survey results as of April, 2017 with 38 cities responding Credit: Bloomberg Philanthropies

Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 47 The Future of Auto Barriers to Cities Autonomous Vehicles Efforts Lack of Funds No Capacity to Manage Pilots Unclear What Issues Require City Action No Urgency or Consensus to Act National or State / Provincial regulation Lack of Private Sector Interest Local Opposition No Planning or Policymaking Capacity 0 1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8 Data: Survey results as of April, 2017 with 38 cities responding Credit: Bloomberg Philanthropies Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 48 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles What do they mean for municipalities? Less pollution Changing traffic patterns Less need for police, fire and ambulance accident response With far fewer accidents, ERs less busy Job displacement / retraining Up to 3.5M truckers nationwide Some 233,700 taxi and limo drivers (2014 number)

Several hundred thousand TNC drivers Drivers for municipal fleets Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 49 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles What do they mean for municipalities? Municipal Buses Shared driverless cars could reduce bus ridership / replace buses Driverless busses with reduced operator and training costs may see increased ridership Roads? Increasing capacity on existing roads could reduce the need for new road infrastructure May increase maintenance needs for existing roads Urban Sprawl? Could increase number of people moving out to suburbs, as people may be more willing to commute to longer distances with faster, more

efficient, comfortable travel Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 50 The Future of Auto Driverless Vehicles What do they mean for municipalities? Revenue reductions Traffic violations can account for 5% 30% of revenue for some municipalities Taxi medallion fees Parking meter income Vehicle registration fees Issuing drivers license fees Personal property taxes Fuel taxes as more driverless vehicles are EV Business displacement / repurpose Urban garages Gas stations / car repair / body shops Street parking self-driving technology could allow cities to redevelop at least 50% of current street parking permanently reclaiming sidewalks and dramatically expanding the public

realm. LNC Ohio Township Association | Emerging Issues | Charlie Kingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation 51

Cyber Attacks Nanotechnology Concussions 3D Printing Self-Driving Vehicles and Assisted Driving Innovations Internet CommunicationsPersonal Injury Claims Hydraulic Fracturing Drone Use Food-borne Illness BPA Food Flavorings and Coloring Litigation Internet of Things GMOs The New Economy Hazardous Imported Products E-Cigarettes Artificial Turf C8 / PFOA Endocrine Disrupters Counterfeit/Imported Medicines

Legal Highs Epigenetics Judicial Reformation of Policy Defenses Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation Thank You Charlie Kingdollar 203 328 5756 [email protected] Follow Charlie on: www.linkedin.com/in/ charlie-kingdollar-a50452a/ twitter.com/ ckingdollar Proprietary and Confidential | General Reinsurance Corporation

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