Science Needs for Arctic Operations Randall Luthi Moderator

Science Needs for Arctic Operations Randall Luthi Moderator

Science Needs for Arctic Operations Randall Luthi Moderator National Ocean Industries Association Erik Milito American Petroleum Institute Gary Rasicot U.S. Coast Guard RADM Jonathan White U.S. Navy RADM Craig Bone (ret.) American Bureau of Shipping Dave Benton Consultant for the Alaska Seafood Industry 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic

Science Needs for Arctic Operations Erik Milito American Petroleum Institute 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations Gary Rasicot

U.S. Coast Guard 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations RADM Jonathan White U.S. Navy Science Needs for Arctic Operations A National Security Perspective U.S. Navy

RADM Jonathan White Oceanographer and Navigator Of the Navy Director of Task Force Climate Change 4 March 2015 6 Arctic Ice Coverage Sea Routes Northern Sea Route 2025: 6 weeks open 41 controlling draft

Transpolar Route 2025: 2 weeks open Deep ocean transit Northwest Passage 2025: intermittently open 33 controlling draft Sea route distances: Distance from the Bering Strait to

Rotterdam 7 Arctic Region Challenges Harsh operating environment Non-ice hardened ships and limited ice breaking capability Limited comms and satellite sensors Limited Arctic experience Incomplete charting Limited ice- breaking capabilities

Limited SAR assets Limited infrastructure High cost of operations Identified Capability Gaps Sense environment parameters Forecast environmental parameters Predict impact of environmental conditions on naval systems Improving operational capabilities, expertise, and capacity

to operate in the region.Just like every other ocean around the world 8 Arctic Region Enablers Improved sea ice and weather forecasts High-resolution Arctic System Models Coupled ocean/wave/ice/atmosphere Expanded forecasts (7 days, 1-3 months, 1 yr, 5-10 yrs) Detailed ice location, thickness, age, movement Platform/sensor development (buoys,

hydrographic sensors, UAV/UUVs) Remote sensing exploitation and algorithm development High resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery Data Assimilation techniques Mitigate Effects of Sea Ice Impacts and Ice Loading Arctic Center of Excellence Improving forecasts and predictions to support Navy operations worldwide

9 U.S. Navys National Role? DOD Lead: Develop a Framework of Observations and Modeling to Support Forecasting and Prediction of Sea Ice DOD Support: Objective: Improve sea ice forecasts and predictions at

a variety of spatial and temporal scales Charting, Models, Maritime Domain Awareness, Observations, etc. Under Title 10 the Navy is responsible for safety and effectiveness of all maritime vessels, aircraft, and forces of the armed forces by means of: marine data collection, numerical modeling and forecasting hazardous weather and ocean conditions. As well as the collection and processing of Hydrographic Information. 10 Roadmap to Improved Arctic Forecasting Capability

Analyze: Ice edge position and MIZ extent Predict: Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) Predict: 2-Day Ice Edge Outlook 11 Roadmap to Improved Arctic Forecasting Capability Analyze: Ice edge position and MIZ extent

Predict: ESPC Regional Arctic Coupled Model FY 2022 Predict: 2 week sea ice forecast (location, thickness, age & movement) + 30/60/90 day Outlook

12 Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) 0 hours 30 years: Weather, Ocean, Climate, Ice ESPC: A unifying NATIONAL effort one BEST operational capability 13 Arctic Roadmap Implementation Development of Arctic maritime capability requirements

Arctic engagement Updating Fleet guidance for Arctic Operations and Training ICEX accelerated to bi-annual vice tri-annual event Science and Technology Plan Identify/evaluate U.S. and international infrastructure. Hull, propulsion and engineering requirements for Arctic Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)- National Architecture Plan Maintaining steady strain on the right problems

14 Discussion 15 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations RADM Craig Bone (ret.)

American Bureau of Shipping 2015 Public Policy Forum: Predicting and Preparing for a Changing Arctic Science Needs for Arctic Operations Dave Benton Consultant for the Alaska Seafood Industry Science Needs for Arctic Operations

QUESTIONS? Randall Luthi Moderator [email protected] Erik Milito [email protected] Gary Rasicot [email protected] RADM Jonathan White [email protected] RADM Craig Bone (ret.) [email protected] Dave Benton [email protected]

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