National Solar Energy & Your Dream Houses (Nang Luong Mat Troi Quoc Gia & Nhung Ngoi Nha Mo Uoc cua ban) Presented by: Dr. Thanh Cong Nguyen Senior Analyst (Structural & Mechanical Engineering) PhD in Medical (Biomechanical) Engineering, QUT Bachelor of Science Applied in Mathematics (Honours), UQ Bachelor of Science Applied in Physics & Mathematics, UQ Outline Important and necessary information to have solar energy project. Approximated Benefit from solar energy Importance of combine project, Dream Houses for low income people Proposal design of dream houses Approximated benefits from dream house project Proposal methodology to process the projects to minimise initial investment, maximise creating job and encourage practised training and research in related areas. Proposal step to process the project PART I: SOLAR ENERGY Information of solar energy: Signal of Solar Energy
Revolution begin? Bloomberg Bussiness, Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables By Tom Randall on 15/04/2015 Information of solar energy: Cost Revolution is starting Summary of Solar Cost by Deutsche Banks Vishal Shah Cost Trajectory Cost of a complete package of solar power in $US/Wh 2.9 2.66 2.17 0.2 0.5 1.77 0.18 0.47 0.3 0.25 0.25 0.6 0.25 0.23 0.23
Installatio n 0.65 0.6 0.45 0.45 sale sale 0.5 0.47 0.3 0.2 other other 0.2 0.18 0.18 0.12 0.12 0.2 0.45 0.17 0.16 0.17
0.5 2017E total total 2.9 2.66 2.17 1.77 Refer to Giles Pakinson, Why solar costs will fall another 40% in just two years, published on RenewEconomy Journal, Australia in Jan. 2015 Compared costs of different Energy Refer to Facts about Hydro-power on www.wvic.com/Content/Facts_About_Hydropower.cfm
Hydropower is the most efficient way to generate electricity, convert as much as 90% of the available energy into electricity. The best fossil fuel plants are only about 50% efficient. In the U.S., hydropower is produced for an average of 0.85 cents per kilowatt-hour (kwh), is about 50% the cost of nuclear, 40% the cost of fossil fuel, and 25% the cost of using natural gas. Information of solar energy: Revolution has started Real Cost in different country (Refer to the Giles Parkinson) Deutsche notes that total module costs of leading Chinese solar companies have decreased from around $1.31 a watt in 2011 to around $0.50/W in 2014. It says this was primarily due to the reduction in processing costs, the fall in polysilicon costs and improvement in conversion efficiencies. It sees a precedent for this in the oldest major solar market in the world Germany. Costs
today are well below costs in the United States and other less mature markets, and total installed costs have declined around 40 per cent over the last 3 years in the country. Importance factor: Vietnams Require of Electricity Energy Refer to EVN, Thy in Vit Nam hon thnh s mnh lch s published on 26/12/2014: Electricity Energy was produced about 128 billion kWh (in 2013) & 141 billion kWh (in 2014) Refer to EVN, Pht trin thy in bn vng Vit Nam published on 23/07/2014: Electricity is increasing 7% per year (2010-2020) and 5% after this period. Predict Required Energy in Next 20 Years (in billion kWh) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0
2 4 6 8 EVN Propose 10 12 14 Project Propose 16 18 20 Importance factor: Limited Hydro-Power in Viet Nam Refer to EVN, Thy in Vit Nam hon thnh s mnh lch s published on 26/12/2014: Energy from hydro-power was about 58.6 billion kWh (in 2013) & 62.5 billion kWh (in 2014)
Maximum limited energy from hydro-power will be 75.3 kWh in end of 2017. EVN has imported 711Million kWh of Hydro-power from China in first 6 months of 2015 (Refer to EVN website, EVN ang gim dn lng in nhp khu t Trung Quc published on 08/09/2015) Importance factor: Low costs of Hydro-Power? It is not really cheap if price including the cost from the evidences: - Cost of rebuild and deaths of people from accidents of dam collapse and water release from dam with bad management. - Mainstream Hydropower may impact: Flow regime; transport of sediment and nutrients; biodiversity; water quality; fisheries; navigation; and related socio-economic issues needed studied(refer to Mekong Delta Study on the progress, in MRCs report in 2015) Importance factor: Increasing imported electricity energy? National economic develop will depend and is controlled by supplying countries. Due to profit, more hydro-power stations will be built by neighbour countries and impact Flow regime; transport of sediment and nutrients; biodiversity; water quality; fisheries; navigation; and related socio-economic issues needed studied(refer to Mekong Delta Study on the progress, in MRCs report in 2015) * People life gets risky from Hydro-power dam collapse. Ex. Flood in Brisbane in
11/01/2011 Importance factor: Develop Fossil Fuel Power? Fossil fuels release CO2, NO2, SO2 & CO etc. when burnt that can have severe consequences on the habitats: 1. Environmental Hazards 2. Rising Prices 3. Acid Rain 4. Effect on Human Health 5. Non-Renewable 6. Impact on Aquatic Life by Oil Spill 7. Coal Mining: Destroy huge reserves areas resulting in ecological imbalance & poses a serious health hazard to the miner lives. Predict the gap energy for Solar Energy Predict Required Energy in Next 20 Years (in billion kWh) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
50 0 0 2 4 6 8 EVN Propose Hydro_power Energy 10 12 14 16 Project Propose Total Energy Without SE 18
20 Development National Energy in summary Develop Hydro-power up to the limit capacity with the good management to away from risky. Develop Non-clean energy to supply enough energy for our country economic in next ten years Study and develop solar energy to cover the energy gap when stop develop non-clean energy next 10 years. Predict Solar Energy Required for Development Predict Energy in Next 20 Years (Billion kWh) 500 450 400 350 Average solar Energy needed to
be produced as 5 billion kWh 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 2 4 6 Hydro-Power 8 10 Solar Energy 12 Others
14 16 Total Energy 18 20 How to Develop Solar Energy with Competitive Price Study better technology for Inverter, Solar cells to obtain more efficiency products to reduce price. Train workers to build and install equipment based on the advantage of cheap labour in the country. Combine solar energy project with other projects to reduce the cost and contribute to solve problems of the countries. Train university students to work experience in the real quality industrial works and researches in standard codes to becomes professional engineers for the country development. How Solar Energy system in this project: Study a best way for Vietnam catch up Revolution
0.125 0.115 0.1 0.085 inverter (50%) other racking 0.25 0.23 0.19 0.16 other BOS 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.17 racking total 0.12 0.09 0.17 0.16 0.09
other BOS Installation (1/5) 0.13 0.12 0.09 0.09 other 0.2 0.18 0.18 0.12 total 1.755 1.595 1.41 1.125 Based on Solar Cost by Deutsche Banks Vishal Shah, the calculated cost of
a complete package of solar power in $US/Wh With assumed adjustment that 50% lower inverter, no sale & labour cost as 1/5 in Viet Nam Approximated Energy: Required solar panels Assume that 65days of raining. The maximum efficiency of produced solar energy of the solar cells is 90% in Summer and 40% in Winter. Total produced of 1W installed panel in a summer day: 6.2Wh. Proposal Solar Efficiency in a day 1 0.9 Total produced of 1W installed panel in a Winter day: 2.2Wh.
0.8 0.7 0.6 Total produced of 1W installed panel in 1 year: (6.2+2.2)*150=1260Wh. 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 6 8 10 Summer 12 14 Winter
16 18 Each solar panel (1m2, eq 250W) produces total energy each year: 315kWh Required install No. of panels (for 5 billion kWh): 16 mil. Panels No. of installing houses (44panels each): 360000 year Max. No. of panels can manufactured each month: 50000 Approximated Energy: Cost for 5 B.kWh in Western countries Table of cost for 5b.kWh per year cost Panel cost Cost trajectory Inverter (use published cost) 1.76 1.6 1.41 1.13
2016E total other Installation (1/5) other BOS racking 0.12 0.09 0.17 0.16 0.09 0.5 2017E inverter (50%) panel Rate Equipment & materials(40%) Invest ment profit (40%) labour (20%) Equipment & material (50%) Investment profit (20%) labour (30%) Racking -50% Installation labour (100%) Equipment & Material
Others BOS (50%) (Balance of system) Labour (50%) Total 800 800 400 340 136 204 320 1800 340 340 5480 Sale price ($uS/kg) 0.08 0.09 Total sale for 5bkWh (m$US) 400 450
20 22.5 0 0 Lost on transport (5%) Mataining to h. owner (0%) Interest on loan (2% of 4544) 91 Interest on loan (3% of 4544) Investment: 5480-800-136=$US4544m, Return: $US290 mil $US 136 Return after cost 289 290
Time pay of debt 16 years 16years Approximated Energy: cost for 5 B.kWh in Viet Nam cost Panel cost (=1/5) Inverter (use published cost) Racking Installation Rate mil $US Equipment & materials(40%) 800 Invest ment profit (40%) 352 labour (20%) 80 Equipment & material (50%) 170 Cost trajectory
1.76 Investment profit (20%) labour (30%) 50% from other countries labour (100%) Equipment & Material (50%) 68 102 1.41 1.13 160 360 0.2 0.13 0.3 0.25 0.13 0.18 0.12 0.25
2017E Others BOS (Balance Sale priceof($uS/kg) 0.065 system) Labour (50%) Total sale for 5bkWh (m$US) 325 Total 0.07 68 350 2228 Lost on transport (5%) 16.25 17.5 Mataining to h. owner (5%) 16.25 17.5
Interest on loan (4% of 2228) 89.12 Interest on loan (5% of 2228) 1.6 panel Installation (1/5) inverter (50%) other racking total other BOS This calculation based on imported solar energy system 111.4 Return after cost 203.38 203.6
Profit each year 91.98 92.2 Estimated Profit for 5 B.kWh in Viet Nam For imported solar energy system Total of labour cost (m$US) No. of labour days No. employments ($300/ m) 2500 Debt Amount (Mil. $US) 2000 428 mil. $US 30mil days 118k people loan at 5% Loan at 4% 1500
1000 500 0 0 2 4 6 Build 5BkWh solar panel: Investment $5120m to build manufacturer for 20years Cost $544m each year for materials Additional profit $US 352m from panel Additional labour cost : $80m = 22k employers Domestic supplied Inverters: Labour cost : $102m = 28k employers 8 10 12 14 16
18 20 No. of Houses installing Solar Energy Installing 16 mil. 250W Panels each year (average 44 panels each) Installing 720k inverters each year for 1 st 10 years. Replacing or maintaining for 720k inverters for 2 nd 10 years. Average 360k houses will be installed panels each year. Average 7.2mil houses will be installed after 20 years. Assume that population of VN in next 20years is 120mil. With 10 persons in a house then total No. Of house is 12 mil Solar panel installed houses is 7.2/12=60% Estimated price of inverter Total cost for inverter 5bkWh per year: 340 m$US Operation time of converter: 10years No. of converters for 1st 10 years: 16mil.*.25/5*0.9=720k Assume the factor of the cost of fixed 2nd 10 years: 1.5 Calculated cost for each inverter: 340m/(1.5*720k)=$315 Recent market price: 5kW Inverter PAC-5: AU $450 =US$32 (Based on advertised 21/09/2015 on Ebay)
1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 5 10 1st 10 years 15 2nd 10years & later 20 25 It is believed that the inverter can supplied at $200-$250/each by a domestic company. That mean 20% cheaper compared to recent market price
Estimated Amount to build a panel manufactory Estimated cost of 5bkWh panels proposal in Viet Nam: $US 2000mil. Estimates cost of 5kWh panels: 2000/16*22=$2750 Recent market price: 6kw Solar (complete Kits) $AU 3490 ($US2513) (Ref. www.superiorsolarsolutions.com.au; advertised on 22/09/2015). Proposal cost of equipment & material for panels: $US 800mil. Invested amount to build a panel manufactory with the capacity of 16mil/year (assumed 30% for equipment+2% for Authorise): $US 800mil. x0.32x20= $US 5120 mil. Predict Debt to build a panel manufactory Loan amount to build panel manufactory: $US 5120mil for 20years Loan amount for material : $US 544mil each year. Loan amount to pay labours: $US 80 mil each year. Total return from panel sale: 800+352+80=$US 1232mil./year 6000 Loan Amount (Mil. $US) 5000
Comparison between Solar Energy & Coal Energy Solar Energy Base price: 7cent/kWh Reduce hot temperature hence better health. No create dangerous waste. No cost for health affect No affect on the land restructure. Electricity from coal Base price: 5cent/kWh 4.300 dead relating to health & increasing 25000 in 2030 (Tuoi Tre online 29/9/2015) Cc cht thi s ph hy tim mch, ng h hp v h thn kinh ca con ngi, tng nguy c ung th phi, t qu, cc bnh tim mch, bnh ng h hp mn tnh v cc bnh h hp truyn nhim cht ngi. Ph y t khng l do s suy gim v sc khe ca ngi dn. Natural Land is destroyed, hence cost to
restructure. PART II: YOUR DREAM HOUSES Importance of Dream house as a combine project The Dream house is a combine project of solar energy Solar Energy project needs space then this project provide lend the roof. The owner does not pay for the roof The house will be designed and built by Non-profit Dr. Engineering club with new cheap & green product, but qualify for long term and capacity of storm wind. The house is as a dream of low income people as they can own a cheap house but good quality and standard living in their conditions A sample of Happy Village A sample of Happy Village A sample of dreaming House (front) A sample of dream House (back) A sample of dream house (Internal Design)
A sample of dream house (Internal Design) A sample of twin-house for small land Concrete Base & Cost The concrete base will be designed by the non-profit Engineering Club that consist of university students leaded by experienced engineers to qualify design in low cost. Steel & Wood (Bamboo) Frame & cost A combination of steel and cheap local treated wood to minimise the low cost but good quality for long term (more than 20 years). Bamboo can be
considered in research for later improvement. Photo for example Roof will be designed to install solar panels. The cost of roof will be paid by contracted solar energy company Cheap Light-Weight Panel Wall Two side of frame will be covered by the lightweight panels (made The houses are likely concrete painted houses at the final stage from sugar cane fibre and cement) Estimated other cost (exclude labour) quantity Base
Cement 34 (50m2) Mesh 123 4.81945 sand 2.85 (mil. $VN) rock 1.75 Frame steel 100x100x2.5 32 steel 45x90x2 40 14606.4 wood 100x45 2.5 chemical Doors Main Glass door 1 2800 Windown 6 Room door 3 Wall plaster board
40 14000 tile 100 cover 200 Cheap board 240 7280 Corners 128 Others Tile 50 Toilet+Plumber Kitchen, storage Screw & other Paint 25 Total unit bags kg m3 m3 m m m3
Return from House Sale Example, the house is sale at $120 000 000 House life is 20 years Deposit $20 000 000 House loan $120 000 000 Interest rate 8% Loan term 10 years Payment for each month: $550 000 Land & Infrastructure Planning Assumed that the cost of land & infrastructure planning for each land is $200 000 000 The land is owned by government and rented to the house owners: Investment $200 000 000 Term using 20 years for 8% interest The rent land pay to the government $340 000 PART III: PROJECT PROGRAM Step 1: Establish Project Network Establish project leader team: Duty: Detailing, planning and managing the project. Contact to related organisations to obtain clear and accurate data for project recalculate in request of commission by the Government and advice for finance source. Contact to a suitable contractor to build a panel manufactory of 1.6m/year Establish
Club of Dr. Engineering: Duty: Training involving students to detail design of warm houses including panel assembly, infrastructure and house building techniques. Establish the link between university research centres, Dr. Engineering Club and private companies: Duty: Study equipment and process to produce solar generator kits as cheap as possible. Develop the cheap plaster-like wall and frame. Electrical Research (Universit y) Electrical Equipment Manufactor y Electricit y Network Solar Panel Manufactor y
Solar Panels Electrician & Builder team Desig n Village Houses Materials (cheap & green) Resear ch Solar Energy Other Products Predict Solutio
ns Converte r Box Club of Dr. Engineerin g (non-profit organisati on) Governme nt members Company members Universit y Students Diagram of project network Step 2: Project Trial model of 1000 house village Contact international panel supplier for 44000 panels. Request domestic electrical supplier for 2000 inverters of 5kW.
Construct a village of 1000 houses which designed by Dr. engineering Club and built by training students and workers. Recalculate to evaluate the accuracy of proposal project. Establish Research and development team (between the university and companies) to develop the best and cheap products. Plan to build up panel manufactory of 1.6mil/year (10 total) Step 3: Build up manufactories and working teams to reach target of 16mil. Panels/year Build up panel manufactory of 1.6mil/year and keep doing to reach 10 total. Design and construct many villages in different locations with average number reaching to 180000 house per year. Installing the remain panels (50% of produced) on existing houses with a contracting to house owners. Research & Development keeps complete process to use bamboo instead of wood and steel as much as possible. Step 4: Marketing and Export Cheap Building Technology Study marketing for export cheap building technology to neighbour countries such as Lao, Cambodia, Philippine and Myanmar. How does a Non-Profit Dr. Engineering Club contribute?
Support university students to practice & experiences Students can earn some money from practice work from industry to support their study Experienced leaders can help students to work for member industries with low fee Member industries or governments can order some works like research, design or development with low cost. Note: club only charges little cost for output results as win and win Some examples of the works the club can do Design house for low income people Design and develop the existing machines in some industries. Manual to train new workers how to build the house using this method of building Can study and design away local street flood with low cost Can research a computational model to predict the flooded location from weather or collapsed dams. Conclusion:
This is proposal project to help Vietnam can produce green power for a future developing economic. Help the dream of low income people to own a quality house Create jobs for people Support students to catch up real modern industrial works. Contribute national industries and society develop the quality works with low cost using
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