Guide Dogs Maximising the impact of Raffle appeals

Guide Dogs Maximising the impact of Raffle appeals

Guide Dogs Maximising the impact of Raffle appeals Kate Parker Senior Insight Analyst Guide Dogs Raffles Overview One of our longest running appeals Quarterly appeals Sent over 3m warm mailings in 2011 To 880k warm supporters in 2011 Raised 5m in 2011 (warm and cold) The Creative

The Problem Mass communication Not targeted Great way to keep in touch with supporters Potential income slipping through The Proposal Identify max profit line and mail minimum Send more books to supporters who are most likely to buy more tickets Use data to personalise the letter to make the supporter feel more engaged with the cause Part 1- Modelling Analyse past campaigns :

Who we mailed Who responded What differentiates them from the base? RFV variables & demographics Identify max profit line Use the model to select lower volumes to increase RR% and ROI.

Modelling Profiling responders Modelling Decision Tree afd Modelling Gains Chart Modelling - Results 300,000 25.00% 20.00%

200,000 15.00% 150,000 10.00% 100,000 5.00% 50,000 0 0.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Model node Mailable volume

Typical RR% Response rate % Mailable volume 250,000 Part 2 Multibook Strategy Increase average gift by sending more tickets Which supporters have the propensity to buy more? How many more tickets do we send them? Who are the stubborn supporters?

Multibook Strategy Planning Which audience? Non-rafflers were tested with multiple books in Summer & Winter 2010 Those sent multiple books underperformed Are we potentially putting off non-rafflers by mailing them too many books? Focus on best responders to increase average gift Multibook Strategy The strategy Multibook Strategy The

strategy Multibook Strategy The results Response rate decreased for almost all test data Spring 2011 Summer 2011 Autumn 2011

Winter 2011 New to 2 NO TEST -9.35% -8.24% -5.52% 1 to 2

-6.42% -10.98% -14.04% -18.81% 2 to 3 2.02% -2.48% -0.73%

-12.81% However, average gift was much higher across the board. Spring Summer Autumn Winter 2011 2011 2011

2011 New to 2 NO TEST 27.41% 25.64% 25.72% 1 to 2 22.08%

26.60% 19.18% 17.37% 2 to 3 7.66% 6.94% 5.58%

12.45% Multibook Strategy The results Need to examine ROI to determine effectiveness Test segments performed with mixed results Consistently positive results for New Rafflers increased ROI for those sent more books Increasing books for existing supporters looked positive at first, but then decreased ROI Spring 2011 Summer

2011 Autumn 2011 Winter 2011 New to 2 NO TEST 4.75% 4.85%

8.44% 1 to 2 3.65% 2.22% -6.82% -13.01% 2 to 3

4.96% -0.38% -3.90% -9.81% Multibook Strategy The results Response rate Moving poor responders down meant response rate for other cells dramatically increased

2 books 3 books Autumn 2010 Winter 2010 Spring 2011 Summer 2011 Autumn 2011 Multibook Strategy Conclusions

Existing raffle supporters are happy with the level of gift they have given maintain & monitor New raffle supporters can be encouraged to buy more without negatively affecting ROI Moving supporters down in the strategy strengthened results Maximising Raffles Conclusions Multi-faceted approach is best Data and analysis needs to be robust to accurately predict behaviour Success is measured in various ways identifying this from the outset helps your strategy

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