O C T 2 0 0 4 Michael

O C T 2 0 0 4 Michael

O C T 2 0 0 4 Michael Notaro U.W. Madison

Center for Climatic Research [email protected] - Study the impact of rising levels of equivalent carbon dioxide on global vegetation and climate - Evaluate FOAM-LPJ model - Focus on higher latitudes - Compare findings with satellite data and tree ring data - Later continue study to predict future changes

in vegetation and climate DATASETS - Global Potential Vegetation (Ramankutty and Foley, 1999) - Global Continuous Fields of Vegetation Cover for 1992-1993 (DeFries et al., 1999; 2000) - Pathfinder V3 AVHRR FPAR (1981-2001) (Myneni et al., 1997) - HYDE Global Historical Land Cover for 1900 and 1990 (Goldewijk, 2001; Goldewijk and Battjes, 1997) - International Tree-Ring Data Banks Tree Ring Width (212 sites)

(1800-1999) (45N-75N) (<500m) (standardized) - NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (Kalnay et al., 1996) - NASA GISS Land-Ocean Surface Air Temperature Anomalies (19001999) (Hansen et al., 1999; Reynolds and Smith, 1994; Smith et al.,1996) - Climatic Research Units CRUTEM2 Monthly Land Air Temperature Anomalies (1851-2003) (Jones and Moberg, 2003) - NOAA Extended Reconstruction SST (ERSST) (1900-1999) (Smith and Reynolds, 2003) - Xie-Arkin CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (1979-2001) (Xie and Arkin, 1996; 1997) - CRU TS2.0 Land Surface Precipitation (1901-2000)

- Willmott-Matsuura V1.01 Temperature and Precipitation (1950-1996) (Willmott and Matsuura, 2000) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation MEAN TREND April-October 1982-2000 FPAR Anomalies

FOAM = Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (Jacob, 1997) - R15 (PCCM3+OM3) LPJ = Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic vegetation model (Sitch, 2000) - 1.4x2.8 FOAM-LPJ = fully coupled global atmosphere-ocean-land model with dynamic vegetation

Percent difference (Model-Obs) in Annual Average Land Precipitation (Obs = Xie Arkin 1979-2001) W W W D

W D Contours: 20, 50, 100, and 300% W JAN O

B S M O D E L January and July FPAR

JUL Model Obs 1900 1990

FC Diff Comparison of Simulated and Satellite-Based % Tree Cover 1950-1996 Surface Air T Change (Willmott-Matsuura) A N

N U A L D J F Change in Simulated Surface Air T

Shading: <0.10 Change in Simulated Surface Air T (DJF) Shading: <0.10 Trend in Simulated Precipitation

RP P R Global Annual T

DJF T (Land 38-60N, 120W-140E Global Annual SST Global Tree Cover


R ( 0.7%) R ( 1.0%) P (1.9%) P (1.7%) RP (2.3%)

RP (2.9%) RP R P Trend

In % Forest Cover Change in FPAR RP P R AVHRR

AVHRR Remote Percent Change in Evapotranspiration (Run P) Decomposition of Simulated FPAR FPAR = 9

9 9 9 i=1 i=1

i=1 i=1 f i di + f i di + f id i + f id i Mean FPAR Change in with no trend leaf cover or length of growing

season (GDD) Change in fractional vegetation cover Interactions or feedbacks

between f and d (small) For the 9 pfts, f = vegetation cover fraction d = seasonal leaf cover fraction Trend fd

f d f d Trend fd f d f d Trend


Ring Width Apr-Oct T Ring Width RP P R

CONCLUSIONS - FOAM-LPJ captures the major global biomes but overproduces tree cover due to FOAMs wet bias and LPJs woody bias. - Both satellite data and FOAM-LPJ reveal a global greening trend and poleward expansion of the northern boreal forest - The radiative forcing is responsible for most of the warming trend, although the physiological forcing

contributes some additional local warming. - While the physiological forcing dominates the global greening trend, both forcings play a role in the boreal expansion.

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