Red Balloon Project Constant Change: The Challenging Context

Red Balloon Project Constant Change: The Challenging Context of The 21st Century University of Missouri, St. Louis George L. Mehaffy 13 November 2014 Red Balloon Project In fifty years, if not much sooner, half of the roughly 4,500

colleges and universities now operating in the United States will have ceased to exist. The End of the University as We Know It. Nathan Harden. Red Balloon Project Red Balloon Project Technology Changes Everything

Red Balloon Project Think about the impact of technology: On journalism On photography On the music business On the book publishing/selling business The Long Tail. Chris Anderson (Hyperion, 2006) Red Balloon Project One of technologys impact on business

store closings Abercrombie and Fitch 180 By 2015 Barnes and Noble 223 Over 9 years Aeropostale 175 Next few years JC Penney 33 By mid-2014 Radio Shack 1,100Just announced Staples 225 By 2015 Sears 500 Going Forward

Family Dollar 370 2014 http://247wallst.com/special-report/2014/03/12/retailers-closing-the-most-store Red Balloon Project Robert Darnton Four Great Information Ages Invention of Writing, Mesopotamia, 4,000 BC Moveable type Mass steam-powered presses, Industrial Age Internet, after 1993

Now You See It: Attention and the Future of Learning. Cathy N. Davidson, http://chancellor.ucdavis.edu/local_resources/pdfs/colloquium11-12/ccvol2_cathy_davidson.pdf Red Balloon Project Eight Challenges to Public Higher Education Red Balloon Project 1. State Expenditures for Higher Education (as a percentage of all expenditures: local, state, federal, personal)

1975: 60% variations in states: 2010: From 34% 1980 But huge to 2011Colorado 69 % decline Minnesota 56 % decline North Dakota 1 % increase Wyoming 3 % increase Based on the trends since 1980, average state fiscal support for higher education will

reach zero by 2059. State Funding: A Race to the Bottom. Thomas G. Mortenson http://www.acenet.edu/the-presidency/columns-and-features/Pages/state-funding-arace-to-the-bottom.aspx Red Balloon Project 2. Cost Model Red Balloon Project Sources: College Board, Trends in College Pricing, 2008; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2009, www.bls.gov ; U.S. Census, Current Population Study-ASEC, 2008. From the Delta Project. Courtesy Jane Wellman Red Balloon Project Simple Numbers:

Median inflation-adjusted 7% household income, 2006 2011 Tuition at public four year 18% Institutions, 2006 2011 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/01/opinion/my-valuable-cheapcollege-degree.html?_r=0 Public higher education an historic threshold: Students about to pay a higher percentage than the state. 2012 net tuition 47% of public colleges costs. http://chronicle.com/article/StudentsStates-Near-a/137709/

Red Balloon Project 3. Business Model Higher education is a set of crosssubsidies: graduate education subsidized by undergraduate; upper division subsidized by lower division Jane Wellman, Delta Project http://www.deltacostproject.org/ We also have cross-subsidies by disciplines. Red Balloon Project

Credit Hour Distribution and Average Instructional Costs Public-four Year Averages, 4-state cost study (SUNY, Florida, Ohio, Illinois) % of all credits taken Lower Division 36% Upper Division 48% Grad 1 12% Grad 2 4% 100%

% of total spending on instruction 23% 44% 23% 9% 100% Avg weighted cost/credit 1.00 1.42 2.88

4.00 1.55 SHEEO, 2010 Courtesy Jane Wellman Red Balloon Project NCES, BPS, undergraduates only Courtesy Jane Wellman Red Balloon Project Moodys Inventor Services Report January 23, 2012

Tuition levels are at a tipping point Higher education must innovate to remain viable Collaborations between colleges More centralized management More efficient use of facilities Reduction in number of tenured faculty Geographic and demographic expansion of

course offerings Moodys Report, August 2013 Red Balloon Project In 2012: enrollment at public colleges was essentially flat revenues grew less than 2 percent expenses increased more than 3 percent political pressure to limit tuition increases and little expectation for big improvements in state spending mean that public colleges will have to continue to cut

costs for the foreseeable future. http://chronicle.com/blogs/bottomline/moodys-report-forecasts-a- Red Balloon Project 4. Evidence of Success 2006 American Institutes for Research (AIR) 20% of U.S. college graduates only have basic quantitative literacy skills unable to estimate if their car has enough gasoline to get to the next gas station. More than 50% of students at 4-yr colleges lack the skills to perform complex literacy

tasks, such as comparing credit card offers or summarizing the arguments of newspaper editorials. Red Balloon Project Academically Adrift R. Arum & J. Roksa Study has indicated that 36% of students did not show any significant improvement in Collegiate Learning Assessment (CLA) performance over four years.

Red Balloon Project Graduation Rate, 2010 Study 63.2% of 2003 students who began at a 4 -year college earned bachelors degree by 2009. Beginning Postsecondary Survey, National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education. http://www.quickanded.com/2010/12/u-s-collegegraduation-rate-stays-pretty-much-exactly-the-same.html New Study 2012 Full time students: 75% in 6 years Part time students: 32% in 6 years New National Tally of College Completion Tries to Count

All Students. http://chronicle.com/article/New-NationalTally-of-College/135792/ Red Balloon Project 5. Public Opinion *** 60% (six out of ten) of Americans in 2010 said that colleges today focused more on the bottom line than on the educational experience of students. http://www.highereducation.org/reports/squeeze_play_10/ squeeze_play_10.pdf *** In a recent survey, 80% said that at many colleges, education received is not worth the cost.

Time Magazine, October 29, 2012, p. 37 *** Lumina survey in November/December 2012, three quarters (3/4) of respondents said that college is unaffordable. http://chronicle.com/article/Americans-Value-Higher/ Red Balloon Project 6. The Role of Venture Capitalists New Start-Ups Udacity Udemy University Now

Coursebook Coursekit Courseload CourseRank http://chronicle.com/article/A-Boom-Time-for-Education/131229/ Red Balloon Project 7. Debt Debt Student loan debt outpaced credit card debt for the first time last year. More than $ one trillion dollars this year

Seven in 10 college seniors (71%) who graduated last year had student loan debt, with an average of $29,400 per borrower. http://projectonstudentdebt.org/state_by_state-data.php Red Balloon Project 8. Inequality 1996 - 2012, public colleges and universities gave a declining portion of grantsas measured by both the number of grants and the dollar amountsto students in the lowest quartile of family income. The task of educating low-income

students has increasingly fallen to community colleges and for-profit colleges. http://chronicle.com/article/Public-Colleges-Quest-for/ Red Balloon Project Who Receives Merit Aid? 1 in 5 students from families with income over $ 250,000 1 in 10 students from families with income under $ 30,000

Percentage of 24 Year Olds with College Degrees Top-income quartile: Bottom-income quartile 1970 40% 6% 2011 70% 10% http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/29/magazine/freebies-for-the-rich.html?_r= The higher education system is more and

Red Balloon Project more complicit as a passive agent in the systematic reproduction of white racial privilege across generations. Since 1995, 82 percent of new white enrollments have gone to the 468 most selective colleges, while 72 percent of new Hispanic enrollment and 68 percent of new African-American enrollment have gone to the two-year open-access schools. http://cew.georgetown.edu/separateandunequal/ Red Balloon Project

Are we vulnerable to disruption? Christensen and Eyring argue that disruption comes from cheaper and simpler technologies that are initially of lower quality. Over time, the simpler and cheaper technology improves to a point that it displaces the incumbent. The Innovative University. Clayton Christensen and Henry J. Eyring. 2011 Red Balloon Project

The challenge is enormous. We have a confusion of purposes, distorted reward structures, limited success, high costs, massive inefficiencies, and profound resistance to change. Clay Shirky --Red Balloon Project The biggest threat those of us working in colleges and universities face isnt video lectures or online tests. Its the fact that we live in institutions perfectly adapted to an

environment that no longer exists. http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2014/01/ Red Balloon Project The greatest challenge to our survival and success is our inability and/or unwillingness to change. Red Balloon Project Churchill House of Commons

Red Balloon Project The Chamber should be oblong and not semi-circular; there should not be room for all its Members; it should be designed to preserve that intimacy of debate and discussion, freedom and sense of urgency and excitement http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/ 1945/jan/25/house-of-commons-rebuilding "We shape our buildings, and afterwards our buildings shape us.

House of Commons (meeting in the House of Lords), 28 October 1943. Red Balloon Project Dungeons and Dragons: Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs; Tyrannized by Mythical Beasts Red Balloon Project The Key Issue How do we educate more students, with greater learning outcomes, at

lower costs? Red Balloon Project What should a 21 century university look like? st (were only slightly more than 1/8 of the way into this new century, so let me describe some emerging characteristics of 21st century universities not the final

product) Red Balloon Project Core Commitments Red Balloon Project Commitment to Access Mission Statement: Arizona State University measured not by who we exclude, but rather by who we include and how they succeed I dont think the taxpayers of Florida voted

to tax themselves to build a university that their children could not attend. John Hitt, President The University of Central Florida (UCF) Red Balloon Project A commitment to ACCESS: Multiple entry points Make every effort to get students into the university: early college programs in high school summer preparatory academies testing in 11th grade and using 12th grade for remediation, etc.

community college pathways And then make sure they succeed! Red Balloon Project And challenge old assumptions: whos college ready? A simple example: college mathematics Are students not prepared? Or are we the ones who are not ready? Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching Statways and Quantways

Red Balloon Project Success for At-Risk Students University of Texas Laude Chemistry 301 David Took 50 students with risk indicators: Low SAT, low income, first generation (200 points lower on SAT) Separate class, special interventions: Extra class hours, mentorsand high expectations. Outcome: Same grades as large section

Higher overall graduation rate 3 years later http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/magazine/who-gets-tograduate.html Red Balloon Project Two key ideas: Belonging and Ability One 45 minute intervention for first year students resulted in an 86% completion rate (completing 12 hours of credit in first semester) for disadvantaged students (black, Latino, first generation) cutting in half the gap between advantaged students (90%) and disadvantaged students (82%)

Red Balloon Project Commitment to Student Success A set of studies by AASCU, Ed Trust, and the National Association of System Heads (NASH) Red Balloon Project

Commitment to Learning Outcomes New Tools (CLA, CAAP, and MAPP) New Organizations (NILOA, New Leadership Alliance, etc.) New Initiatives (Degree

Qualifications Profile DQP) New Pressures Adrift) (Academically Red Balloon Project What Learning Outcomes? What are the key work attributes

of the 21st century? --- Solving unstructured problems --- Working with new information --- Carrying out non-routine tasks Teaching As Valued As Research Red Balloon Project Comparing Teaching Effectiveness: Tenure and Non-Tenure Faculty Academic performance, 8 cohorts of freshmen: 15,662 students, from fall 2001 to fall 2008.

Taking a course from non-tenure track faculty members: Increases the likelihood that a student will take another class in the subject Increases the grade earned in that subse quent class Produces the greatest gains for weakest students Red Balloon Project Commitment to be Stewards of Place For the 21st century university, a focus on citizenship preparation, P-12 education, health

care, economic and community development, and internationalization. AASCU published a second and third volume Red Balloon Project Commitment to Reducing Costs Time to Completion 120 hours for all majors Reducing bottlenecks in completion Charging out-of-state for 30+ credits beyond graduation requirements

Intrusive advising and early Red Balloon Project Commitment to the Right Incentives What counts in the new university? What really matters? What are the metrics of success? Who gets rewarded / recognized? Red Balloon Project Perverse Incentives Cardiac surgeons turned away the sickest and most severely ill patients after adopting

performance-based health report cards. Health disparities widened among White, Black, and Hispanic patients after introducing physician report cards. http://www.learningoutcomesassessment.org/documents/ HillmanViewpoint.pdf Red Balloon Project Commitment to Rethinking Status and Prestige Our institutions were created as teaching institutions, instead of learning institutions. From Teaching to Learning - A New Paradigm for Undergraduate

Education. Robert B. Barr and John Tagg. Change Magazine. Nov./.Dec., 1995. Red Balloon Project Key Changes Red Balloon Project Changes in Academic Structures Multiple-institutional Courses

Course (set of competencies) Credit Hour (based on seat time) Semester (unlike Facebook) Curriculum (interdisciplinary, communitylinked)

Degree (competency, certificates, etc.) Red Balloon Project Changing Administrative Practices Outsourcing Campus Consolidation and Expansion Strategic and Corporate Partnerships Contingent and Flexible Workforce Alterations in Benefits Red Balloon Project Changing Administrative Structures

Organization design for optimal student outcomes Multidisciplinary units Units organized around problems, not disciplines Red Balloon Project Changes in Physical Space Classrooms Library Bookstore Office Space Campus

Red Balloon Project Changes in Student Services One example: Coaching Percent First-Year Student Retention (2006 - 2011) Increase 2006 - Latino First Generation Low Income Overall

2006 65% 2007 70% 2008 72% 2009 78% 2010 84%

2011 81% 52% 69% 65% 69% 70% 67% 72% 74% 71%

75% 75% 76% 79% 79% 78% 81% 83% 79% 2011 Percen

Points t 16 25% 29 14 14 56% 20% 22% Source: CSUMB University Factbook, CSUMB Office of Institutional Assessment and

Research Red Balloon Project Changing Faculty Work and Culture Faculty will work in a networked world --- in a collaboration of faculty, other experts, and students across time and space. As individuals we will have to abandon that sense of ourselves as independent actors and agents. Checklist for Change. Robert Zemsky. http://chronicle.com/article/How-to-Build-a-Faculty-Culture/

Red Balloon Project The comparison of the work of physicians and university faculty members is striking: Big Med. Atul Gawande. The New Yorker. http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/ 2012/08/13/120813fa_fact_gawande?currentPage=all Red Balloon Project In medical education, Darrell Kirch describes An Emerging Culture for

Health Care 1. Hierarchal to Collaborative 2. Autonomous to Team-Based 3. Competitive to Service-Based 4.

Individualistic to Mutually Accountable 5. Expert-centered to Patient-centered Higher Education and the Future of American Health Care by Darrell G. Kirch, M.D., President and CEO, Association of American Medical Colleges (Washington, D.C., November 2, 2010). Red Balloon Project Focus on Innovative Teaching

Red Balloon Project Flipped Courses The flipped course. You do homework by watching lectures. You go to class to work on problems together. Khan Academy: 2,400 videos covering everything from arithmetic to physics, finance, and history. Khan lessons viewed by more than 4 million people a month. http://www.khanacademy.org/ Red Balloon Project Open Learning Initiative (OLI)

Carnegie Mellon University http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/index.php Team: content specialist cognitive scientist instructional designer graphic designer OLI-Statistics students learned a full semesters worth of material in half as much time and performed as well or better than students learning from traditional instruction over a full semester. http://oli.web.cmu.edu/openlearning/publications/71-

Red Balloon Project Science Classes The Carl Wieman Science Education Initiative Three strategies: 1. Reducing cognitive load 2. Addressing beliefs 3. Stimulating and guiding thinking http://www.cwsei.ubc.ca/ Experiment produced two times the learning outcomes Deslauriers, Schelew, and Wieman. Science. 13 May 2011, pp. 862 864.

Red Balloon Project Math Emporiums Higher Educations Silver Bullet Carol Twigg http://www.changemag.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/2011/May -June%202011/math-emporium-full.html 3 Keys To Success: 1.Interactive computer software 2.Personalized on-demand assistance 3.Mandatory Student Participation Red Balloon Project

Blended Courses Blended (hybrid) courses combine fact-toface classroom instruction with online learning and reduced classroom contact hours (reduced seat time) Charles Dziuban, Joel Hartman, Patsy Moskal. Blended Learning. EDUCAUSE. 2004 http://net.educause.edu/ir/library/ pdf/ERB0407.pdf SRI Study http://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-basedpractices/finalreport.pdf Ithaka Study http://www.sr.ithaka.org/research-publications/interactivelearning-online-public-universities-evidence-randomizedtrials Broad Course Re-Design

Red Balloon Project George Kuh High Impact Practices

First-year seminars and experiences Common intellectual experiences Learning communities Writing-intensive courses Collaborative assignments and projects Undergraduate research Diversity/global learning Service learning, community-based learning Internships Capstone courses and projects George Kuh. High-Impact Educational Practices: What They Are, Who Has Access to Them, and Why They Matter. AAC&U, 2008.

Ensuring Quality & Taking High Impact Practices to Scale. AAC&U, 2013. Red Balloon Project Prior Learning and Competencies Prior Learning Assessments: Council on Adult and Experiential Learning (CAEL) New Competency-based Degrees: Southern New Hampshire University Northern Arizona University Western Governors University Competency-based Hybrid Degrees

Badges: Khan Academy Cisco Mozilla Certifications: CLA Red Balloon Project Personalization The capacity of software and systems to tailor course materials, learning processes, and approaches to the unique circumstances of individual learners.

Individual characteristics Learning style Memory decay Pacing Obstacles or misunderstandings Red Balloon Project Red Balloon Project So what are the take-aways from this set of ideas? What are some lessons for UMSL?

Red Balloon Project In a world of constant change, it seems to me that you must: Embrace change Challenge every practice Provide a safe environment for experimentation and failure Red Balloon Project This is not simply a difficult moment for higher education: it is the dawn of a very different era.

The institutions that will succeed indeed, thrivein this era will be those that constantly innovate. Red Balloon Project Red Balloon Project Further Readings: Dungeons and Dragons: Prisoners of Our Own Beliefs; Tyrannized by Mythical Beasts. Gardner Institute: Academic Affairs/Student Affairs Conference. Orlando, Florida. January 17, 2014. Challenge and Change. EDUCAUSE Review.

(vol. 47, no. 5. September/ October 2012). http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/challenge-and-change. Medieval Models, Agrarian Calendars, and 21st Century Imperatives. Teacher Scholar. Volume 2: Number 1 (Fall 2010).

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