Security Planning and Transformation Institutionalizing Transformation Achieving Balance

Security Planning and Transformation  Institutionalizing Transformation  Achieving Balance

Security Planning and Transformation Institutionalizing Transformation Achieving Balance The Future Force Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 22 Apr 04 Strategic Transformation Appraisal The TPG Process in Action Office of Force Transformation Strategic Planning Guidance JOINT OPERATIONS CONCEPTS Major Combat Operations JOC Stability Operations JOC Strategic Deterrence JOC

Homeland Security JOC FY2006 - FY2011 November 2003 Joint Transformation Roadmap Naval Transformation Roadmap 2003 Strategic Transformation Appraisal Air Force Transformation Flight Plan Broad Findings Elements of Transformation Office of Force Transformation Continuing process 1-3 Creating / anticipating the future Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations and technology New competitive areas / competencies; revalued attributes Fundamental shifts in underlying principles

New sources of power Changing behavior values, attitudes, beliefs 4-7 Broad Findings Transforming the Role of Defense Office of Force Transformation National Security is more than defense More than responsive and punitive preventative More than stopping something keeping the world system up and running More than the big one the whole spectrum of military competition Homeland security defense in depth Increasing globalization and national security transaction rates compel increased internationalization and civilianization of defense Broad Findings Transforming the Force Office of Force Transformation Last year New this year

More expeditionary Lighter, more agile, easily deployable units More networked Knowledge-enabled warfare Designed to leverage the exterior positions Sustain on-call, global precision strike Leverage increasingly persistent ISR Persistent engagement Tighter sensor-shooter timelines Improved horizontal intel distribution Value information superiority Demand-centered intelligence Joint interoperability at the operational level Jointness to the tactical level

Emphasized unmanned capabilities Substitution of capital for labor Broad Findings Transforming the Way of War Office of Force Transformation Intensity Whats Valued Networking Sensing Envelope management Speed & maneuverability Numbers Risk tolerance Staying power New this year Increasing the speed of command of a networked, distributed force contributes to more rapid force projection and engagement

High transaction rates Increased information rate and volume Increased complexity and scale of operations Tolerance for ambiguity and unpredictable demand Alter Initial Conditions Duration Total Force Balance Security = All Else + Defense Office of Force Transformation Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social Intelligence All Sources of Power Domain of Cooperative Engagement Domain of Political Victory Domain of Strategic Primacy Local Stability Winning the Battle / Combat

Military Intelligence Combat Power Denial Strategies Global Stability Winning the War The Commons: The Strategic Imperative High Seas & Air Above Space Cyberspace Hegemonic Strategies Maximum Complexity The Close Fight: Decisive Operations Land Littorals Low Altitude Domain of Military Victory Total Force Balance Security = All Else + Defense Office of Force Transformation

Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social Intelligence All areas of power Domain of Cooperative Engagement Domain of Political Victory Domain of Strategic Primacy Global Stability Economic Dominance Technology Dominance Technology Insertion Economic Construction Local Stability Economic Destruction Technology Denial Winning the Battle / Combat Military Intelligence Combat Power Denial Strategies Technology Sharing /

Transfer Economic Access / Trade Winning the War The Commons: The Strategic Imperative High Seas & Air Above Space Cyberspace Hegemonic Strategies Maximum Complexity The Close Fight: Decisive Operations Littorals Low Altitude Land Domain of Military Victory Total Force Balance Security = All Else + Defense Office of Force Transformation Winning / Maintaining the Peace Social Intelligence Political Power

Domain of Strategic Primacy Global Stability Strategic Power Space Superiority Information Superiority Dissuade Competition Domain of Political Victory Maximum Complexity Stabilization Reconstruction Political Access Local Stability Power Projection Protection Combat Access Winning the Battle / Combat Military Intelligence Combat Power Denial Strategies High Seas & Air Above Space Cyberspace

Hegemonic Strategies Global Deployment Patterns Strategic Posture Deter Forward Allied Interoperability The Commons: Assuring Allies The Strategic Imperative Strategic Influence Winning the War Domain of Cooperative Engagement The Close Fight: Decisive Operations Littorals Low Altitude Land Domain of Military Victory Trends in Security Competition Office of Force Transformation Information Age Short Cycle Time

New Competencies Adaptive Planning Coherently Joint Interdependent Globalization II Globalization III (1947 199X) (199X 20XX) Developed Rules Mature Markets Narrowing Customer Base Security = Defense Emerging Rules Market Opportunities New Customer Base Emerging Security = All Else + Defense Industrial Age Long Cycle Time Well Developed Tools / Processes Deliberate Planning Deconflicted Joint Tortured Interoperability Security System Balance? Major Movements

Posture/Balance Office of Force Transformation orces forward eploy from home llies nal Maneuver om forward garrison om the sea om strategic distances Strategic Deploy From Home (Reactive) Forces Forward (Garrison Forward) (Sea-based) (Hubs) Alliances Strategic Distances (CONUS and Hubs) rward d derivative force ustaining force onstabulary/Nation-building force Sea Garrison

Forward Strategic Posture Exporting security Office of Force Transformation 160,000 Crisis Response Days 140,000 120,000 P r o je c te d 100,000 80,000 60,000 S o m a lia /H a iti 5k FRY 22k Ir a q 32k 40,000

20,000 M id E a s t A s of J u ly 2 0 0 3 9k B a s e lin e 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Decade E x c lu d e s V ie tn a m W a r * T o ta l n u m b e r o f re s p o n s e d a y s fo r a ll o p e ra tio n s b y N a v y , M a ri n e s , A ir F o rc e a n d A rm y The Red Zone Our Response

Top Level Issues Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes Office of Force Transformation Citizen Soldier Volunteer (Recruited) Force Professional Warrior + Enforcer + Systems Administrator Projecting Power Exporting Security Event Focused Continuous Punitive Preventative Access to Battlespace Access to Political Victory Policy Outcome = f {Power, Moral Principle} Global Trends and Implications of Exporting Security Risk Management Special Case Office of Force Transformation

Policy Choices: Engagement Policy 160,000 140,000 Crisis Response Days Substitution of Capital for Labor Civil Component of National Security Allied / International Component 120,000 P ro jecte d 100,000 80,000 60,000 S o m a lia /H a iti 5k FRY

22k Ira q 32k 40,000 20,000 M id E a s t 9k B a s e lin e 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Decade E xc lu d e s V ie tn am W a r * T o ta l n u m b e r o f re sp o n s e d a ys fo r a ll o p e ra tion s b y A rm y, N a v y , A ir F o rc e a n d M a rin e s Transactions vs. Resources Office of Force Transformation

T R A N S A C T I O N S R E S O U R C E S Anticipating Perfectly Predictable Surprises t1 TIME t2

t3 The Collection Analysis Gap Managing the inevitable Office of Force Transformation Policy Choices: Automate Triage Automate Analysis We all become analysts The Advance to Baghdad Office of Force Transformation 350 Miles to Baghdad 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 03-20-03 03-22-03 03-24-03 03-26-03 03-28-03

03-30-03 1/4/2003 3/4/2003 Day of Conflict 1. Rate of Advance outruns logistics communications and transportation 2. Logisticians shift to push system use models, SitReps, to sense supply needs 3. Tactical Units shift to cross-supply to fill gaps 5/4/2003 Transforming Defense Corporate Strategy Office of Force Transformation Part I: Continuous small steps Part II: Many exploratory jumps Part III: A few big bets If you are not making big bets you are a fixed strategic target at risk. Big Bets We Are Making Big Bets We Have Not Made Yet Joint network-centric warfare

Joint seamless machine-to-machine integration Directed energy Joint re-directed energy Seabasing => Joint OMFTS Demand-centered logistics Demand-centered intelligence Tactically responsive space FBB Identify Issues of Regret Candidates for Action Now Office of Force Transformation Warfare Elements Fire non-lethals, directed energy, redirected energy Maneuver seabasing, vertical battlefield, lift for operational maneuver Protection urban operations, biomedical countermeasures cycle time C2&C joint interdependency vs. interoperability

ISR demand-centered intelligence, tactically responsive space Logistics joint demand-centered logistics Risk Management (creating on-ramps) Joint S&T broaden the capabilities base, create generational depth Joint concept development & experimentation short cycle time / rapid iteration, concept-based / technology-enabled Joint training live / virtual / constructive / distributed People culture and organizations Approaches to Logistics Mass-Based Just-in-Time Office of Force Transformation More is better Mountains of stuff measured in days of supply Uses massive inventory to hedge against uncertainty in demand and supply Mass begets mass and slows everything down Prime Metric: Days of Supply Sense and Respond NetworkCentric Warfare On-time is better

Inventory is reduced to a minimum and kept moving Uses precise demand prediction and static optimization to purge uncertainty Works great, except when it doesnt Prime Metric: Flow Time Global Information Grid Adaptive is better Inventory is dynamically positioned throughout Uses transportation flexibility and robust IT to handle uncertainty Initial S&R models look promising Supports distributed, adaptive ops Prime Metric: Speed/Quality of Effects Whats the Behavior Telling Us? Office of Force Transformation Current Logistics Concepts (Predominant Approach) Predictive, optimized, linear supply chain Sense & Respond Logistics (Predominant Approach)

Adaptive, responsive demand networks Army Stuff Joint Force Capabilities Packages Navy Stuff USAF Stuff USMC Stuff Common Stuff TraditionalC2 Context & Coordination Distributed Operations Other Stuff Sources of Stuff (Theater, CONUS, etc) Transition from linear supply chain to adaptive demand network Operationally Responsive

Space Experiment Office of Force Transformation 2 stories high 9 ft in Diameter TACSAT 1 1969 20 high 41 in Diameter TACSAT 1 2003 Design, build, and launch operationally relevant satellite in less than 1 year Less than $15M including launch Global Utilities Operational Needs Office of Force Transformation National Cost Mission Criticality Risk Capability Complexity Requirements Centralized Control Classification

Competing Users Launch Challenges National Strategic Operational Tactical Military Space Demand Driven Office of Force Transformation Operational Demand Driven Military Capability Autonomous Networked Decentralized Control Reduced Classification Broadened User Base Decreased Cycle Times Risk Tolerant Tactical Operational Strategic National Relay Mirror System The Killer App for HELs Office of Force Transformation Attributes of an HEL-Relay Mirror System Extended range of engagement for air, land and sea-based systems

Improved engagement timeline Increased field of regard Improved battlefield standoff for manned systems Low cost force multiplier High Altitude Airship-based Relay Mirror Systems offer early operational capability for high value missions Re-Directed Energy Office of Force Transformation Objective: Re-direct laser energy beyond line-of-sight (BLOS) via airborne relay mirror system Build an experimental system compatible with the High Altitude Airship (HAA) ACTD that creates a technical means to provide indirect laser propagation geometries Unarticulated Need: Over horizon active defense, communication and sensing Re-Direct laser energy to over-the-horizon objectives i.e. cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, aircraft, artillery, and ground targets Re-Direct laser energy to operational nodes within the optical communications footprint Direct line image relay without optical to electronic conversion Approach:

The FY05 rapid field experiments will determine the operational viability and prepare a functional surrogate to accurately redirect laser energy through the ARMS payload suspended from a crane. In FY06 the system will be upgraded to include light weight components and higher power levels for operational effects and conduct concept-driven operational experimentation onboard a persistent low altitude airborne platform High-risk components and subsystems experiments will be performed A functional surrogate will be configured for the prospective HAA ACTD Operational Maneuver From the Sea Advanced Intermodal Mobility (AIM) Office of Force Transformation Shallow Draft / High-Speed Sealift 6000-8700 nm, 60-100 knots, 5000 ton payload Office of Force Transformation Tactically Survivable: Agile maneuverabilityspeed / angles - Carbon fiber/ Kevlar strength, inherent multi-dimensional stealth, & networked defense Operationally Feasible: Modular missionsrapid reconfiguration - Electronic keel and support service standards & protocols, Mission-oriented mobility systems, reconfigurable payloads Strategically Viable: Adaptable mobilityspeed of response - High Payload-fractions, sustained tempo / reduce foot print ashore Key Barriers to Transformation challenges for the Department

Office of Force Transformation Cultural barriers Speed of understanding vs speed of doctrine Cognitive interoperability and exploitation of shared awareness Values, attitudes and beliefs Physical barriers Speed of mass (lift and mobility) Speed of information (connectivity & interoperability) Fiscal barriers Willingness and ability to devalue and devolve Discretionary versus non-discretionary Process barriers Transformation of the management of defense (not addressed) Key Barriers to Transformation Example of a Cultural Change Office of Force Transformation Large indivisible units Smaller, modular, multifunctional units Transformation for the future (a destination) Transformation as a

change today (a journey) Independence Interdependence Transformation for a few Transformation for everyone Cultural change is a matter of leadership Indicators of Cultural Change Within the next 10 years Office of Force Transformation 30 some adversaries will likely have the ability to use long-range precision strike weapons such as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use of fixed military infrastructure, such as ports, airfields and logistical sites. Percent of Respondants 25 20 15 10 5 0

1 Strongly Disagree 2000 2 3 4 Unsure 5 6 7 Strongly Agree Officer Attitudes Toward Innovation, Thomas G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons Naval War College, 2002 Indicators of Cultural Change Within the next 10 years Office of Force Transformation 30 some adversaries will likely have the ability to use long-range precision strike weapons such as ballistic and cruise missiles to deny our use of

fixed military infrastructure, such as ports, airfields and logistical sites. Percent of Respondants 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 Strongly Disagree 2000 2002 2 3 4 Unsure 5 6 Strongly Agree

The Limits of Transformation: Officer Attitudes toward the RMA, Thomas G. Mahnken and James Fitzsimmons, NWC, 2003 7 Security Environment Four Challenges Office of Force Transformation Irregular Higher Those seeking to erode American influence and power by employing unconventional or irregular methods VULNERABILITY (e.g., terrorism, insurgency, civil war and emerging concepts like unrestricted warfare) Likelihood: very high; strategy of the weak Vulnerability: moderate, if not effectively checked Lower Traditional Those seeking to challenge American power by instigating traditional military operations with legacy and advanced military capabilities (e.g., conventional air, sea and land forces and nuclear forces of established nuclear powers)

Likelihood: decreasing (absent preemption) due to historic capability-overmatch and expanding qualitative lead Lower Vulnerability: low, only if transformation is balanced Catastrophic Those seeking to paralyze American leadership & power by employing WMD or WMD-like effects in unwarned attacks on symbolic, critical or other high-value targets (e.g., 9/11, terrorist use of WMD, rogue missile attack) Likelihood: moderate and increasing Vulnerability: unacceptable; single event could alter American way of life Disruptive Higher Those seeking to usurp American power and influence by acquiring breakthrough capabilities (e.g., sensors, information, biotechnology, miniaturization on the molecular level, cyber-operations, space, directed-energy and other emerging fields) Likelihood: Low, but time works against U.S. Vulnerability: unknown; strategic surprise puts American security at risk LIKELIHOOD No hard boundaries distinguishing one category from another

Transforming the Transformation Perfectly Predictable Surprises Office of Force Transformation Balance prime metrics for force building between Traditional, Irregular, Catastrophic and Disruptive Civilianization of defense Create a strategic approach Internationalization of defense Align grand strategy with global dynamics Buy to cost vice buy to budget Cost is a strategy (both cost of war and program cost) Create cost-suppressing strategies Transformation in non-discretionary areas Create strategic hedges against cataclysm Rationalize information activities management Establish CIO as single acquisition authority and strategist Create global consortium for the grid Achieve demand-centered joint intelligence Popularize social intelligence Establish info-mediaries

Mechanize horizontal integration Extend joint logistics to the tactical level of war Organize around the battlefield, not around the supplier Conclusions achievements and challenges for the Department Office of Force Transformation If executed, Roadmaps yield a highly capable, reasonably balanced force evolving over time Within a predictable range they provide broader options for the President Areas of current advantage will be sustained Some will be subject to sharply increased competition, e.g. cyberspace, space Roadmaps did not address economies of defense Without transformation, costs of acquisition and ownership are not sustainable Choices were made, but divestiture and devolution strategies were not addressed Costs of future combat were not addressed Roadmaps do not address hedging strategies against plausible cataclysms Roadmaps indicate the need for transformation of the management of common functions -- paradoxically where we have great advantage Joint information systems and activities Joint intelligence Joint logistics Joint S&T Elements of Transformation Office of Force Transformation Continuing process Creating/anticipating the future

Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations, and technology New competitive areas/competencies;revalued attributes Fundamental shifts in underlying principles New sources of power Changing behavior values, attitudes, beliefs Transformation Office of Force Transformation Down at the grange theyre teachin a new way of plowin Ya goin? Nope! I already dont plow as good as I know how ... www.oft.osd.mil Office of Force Transformation Q&A

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