NBCEC Brown Bagger: Economic Selection Index Wade Shafer

NBCEC Brown Bagger: Economic Selection Index Wade Shafer

NBCEC Brown Bagger: Economic Selection Index Wade Shafer American Simmental Association Second Commandment of Beef Cattle Breeding Thou Shalt Select Superior Sires! 1 Step: Predicting Genetic Level st EPDs Use

EPDs! Anything Else Where Do We Go From Here? MLK: 10 WBSF: -.12 MBL: . 2 MW: 25 YW: 68 STAY: 18 TM: 27

BKF: . 01 MCE:4 CE:2 CW: 20 REA: . 3 BW: 3.2 YG: . 2 WW: 35 Charting a Direction. . . Typical Direction:

120 100 OUTPUT 80 60 t u p t Ou 40 20 0 1975 1980 1985

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 More Desirable Direction: 120 100 PROFIT 80 60 t

fi o r P 40 20 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

2010 How Do We Select for Profit? Measure It!!!! Profit = $Output $Input Measuring Profit Profit = $Output $Input Economic Selection Index Lanoy Hazel, 1943 Measuring Profit Profit = $Output $Input (Output = Calf Survival Traits)

(Prices (Input (Costs) - Replacement Rate ) Traits) Weaning Weight Carcass Weight Yield Grade Marbling Salvage Weight Cowherd Intake Feedlot Intake Measurin g Profit Biological Assumptions Weaning weight: 550 lb Feedlot gain; intake: Phase 1 (80 d): 2.51 lb/d; 26.86 lb/d

Phase 2 (50 d): 2.92 lb/d; 21.9 lb/d Phase 3 (100 d): 3.81 lb/d;26.67 lb/d Cow size: 1250 lb Milk production: 5283 lb/lactation Pregnancy rate: 84% Dystocia heifers (direct): 20% Dystocia heifers (maternal): 20% Calf survival: 96% Harvest weight: 1277.8 lb Dressing: 62.9% Carcass weight: 803.7 lb Marbling score: 5.14 Yield grade: 2.8 Price & Cost Assumptions:

Salvage price: $.45/lb Hay: $.0325/lb Pasture: $25/ac/yr Feed; fixed costs: Phase 1: $.036/lb; $.51/d Phase 2: $.039/lb; $.80/d

Phase 3: $.067/lb; $.80/d Carcass prices: Base: $121/cwt < 550 lb: - $15/cwt > 950 lb: - $7/cwt > 1000 lb: - $17.50/cwt Prime: + $8.00/cwt High Choice: + $3.50/cwt Choice: + $1.50/cwt Select: - $11.00/cwt Standard: - $20.00/cwt YG 1: + $4.00/cwt YG 2: + $2.00/cwt YG 3: $0.00/cwt YG 4: - $15.00/cwt Measuring Profit: Accounting for Biological x Economic Interaction High Yielding

YG1 $125 YG2 $123 YG3 $121 YG4 YG4 $106 $106 YG5 $101 Low Yielding YG1 $125

YG2 $123 YG3 $121 YG4 $106 YG5 $101 ASAs Economic Indexes All-Purpose Index (API) a Bred to all-aged females Retain replacements Terminal Index (TI)a

Bred to mature cows No replacements retained a General Assumptions: Sires mated to Angus cow herd Integrated system selling on end product value Prices/costs based on CattleFax prediction models 5 Year Assessment Indexes have been integrated more quickly than any technology we have ever introduced Indexes have the potential to substantially increase the integration

level of animal breeding technology Indexes are Highly Keys to Marketability simple work sexy Producer Concerns: Economic parameters are unpredictable: Prices and costs tend to maintain equilibrium over time Tend to be robust even when prices and costs not

in equilibrium Indexes arent validated: Validated in other species Straightforward accounting process methodology is validated Bottom line high probability of being more effective than current seat-of-the-pants approach One size fits all doesnt fit me: Population-wide indexes must necessarily cover entire production system Few producers have data necessary to parameterize customized index Strong correlations between customized indexes Customized indexes arent as marketablereducing integration

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