Lexington Area TransCAD Travel Demand Model July 22,

Lexington Area TransCAD Travel Demand Model July 22,

Lexington Area TransCAD Travel Demand Model July 22, 2003 Kentucky Traffic Model Users Group Meeting Kyeil Kim, Ph.D. Bernardin, Lochmueller & Associates, Inc. Main Features

Consists of separate time-of-day (TOD) models Realistic free-flow speed based on a speed survey and HCM-based signal delays Varying capacities by TOD for reversible lanes Model parameters are based on recent travel survey and KYTCs HIS database. 2-stage assignments: Initial and Feedback User-friendly model GUI Model Area Roadway Network Incorporation of KYTCs HIS and geometric/operations data

All MINUTP network attributes FHWA functional class, posted speeds, etc. Number of lanes, reversible lanes & bike lanes Area type, shoulder widths, median type, etc. Traffic signals & multi-way stops (signal priority, multiple signals) Turn prohibitors TAZ DB Total 489 zones Internal zones = 445 zones External zones = 44 zones

51 data attributes Date related to population and household Employment by SIC code Student population, group quarters & school enrollment Vehicle ownership Key data for estimating trip productions and attractions Speed/Capacity Estimation Free-flow speed, peak-hour capacity & daily capacity A special GIS-dk program to estimate directional capacities by TOD & free-flow speed Consideration of changes in reversible lanes by TOD

Free-flow speed = f (functional class, posted speed, number of lanes, facility type, delays on interrupted facilities) Daily capacity = f (functional class, number of lanes, facility type) Peak-hour capacity = max. service flow * adjustment factors where, Adjustment factors = f (geometric data, functional class, facility type, area type, delays on interrupted facilities) Speed/Capacity Estimation (Contd) Delays on interrupted facilities HCM 2000 procedure delay/veh = uniform delay * PF + incremental delay + initial queue delay 2 where, PF = progression factor type, g/C)

1 f g(arrival 0.5C= C 1 min 1, v c g C uniform delay = Varying g/Cs and PFs by signal priority and multiple signals Lexington Model GUI Lexington Model GUI Trip Generation Six internal trip purposes:

- HBW, HBK12, HBU, HBO, NHBW & NHBO Trip production - Cross-classification technique - Data: The 2000 Knoxville Household Travel Behavior Study, The 1999 Indiana University Travel Demand Survey - Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and non-parametric correlations techniques to identify the predictor variables for various trip purposes - Stratification curve: distribution of households in a zone over various levels of the predictor variables Trip Generation (Contd) Trip production model Trip Purpose

1st Predictor 2nd Predictor Overall Trip Rate HBW Workers/H.H. Vehicles/H.H. 1.30 HBK12

Students/H.H. None 0.64 HBU University Student/TAZ None 0.48

HBO Household Size Vehicles/H.H. 3.72 NHBW Workers/H.H. Household Income 0.84

NHBO Household Size Vehicles/H.H. 2.02 Total 9.00 Trip Generation (Contd) Trip attraction model: the Atlanta regression model Trip Purpose

Independent Variable Parameter HBW Total Employment 1 HBK12 K-12 Enrollment 1

HBU University Enrollment Population Retail Employment Commercial & Govt Employment Other Employment Population Retail Employment Commercial & Govt Employment Other Employment 1 .1168 .8257

.0408 .0137 .0575 .7593 .0846 .1053 HBO NHBW & NHBO Trip Distribution Doubly-constrained Gravity model for the 6 internal trip purposes & E-I trips

Friction factors - Initial factors from the old MINUTP model - Fitting to Gamma function for smoothing the factors - Adjustment of Gamma parameters to arrive at correct trip lengths by trip purpose Socioeconomic (or K) factors Vehicle Occupancy Vehicle occupancy rates by trip purpose HBW 1.09 persons/vehicle HBK12 1.96 persons/vehicle HBU 1.20 persons/vehicle HBO 1.83 persons/vehicle NHBW 1.17 persons/vehicle NHBO 1.75 persons/vehicle

(Source: The 2000 Knoxville Household Travel Behavior Study) Time-of-Day AM peak (06:30~09:00); Midday peak (12:00~13:30); PM peak (15:30~18:00) and Off-peak TOD factors - Split the 24-hr trip table into tables by TOD - by trip purpose Directional factors - Convert trip tables in a production-attraction format to origindestination tables - by trip purpose and by TOD Data Source: the 2000 Knoxville Household Travel Behavior Study External Trips

44 external stations E-E trips The 1994 O-D survey by Wilbur Smith Associates Most of E-E trip interchanges except for the interstate and US60 exchanges Kentucky Statewide Travel Model via critical link analysis E-E trip interchanges for the interstate and US60 external stations Modlin Equations A check of reasonableness E-I trips = ADTs - E-E trips at each external station 27 stations of the 44 stations carry through trips Traffic Assignment Time-of-day user equilibrium assignments - separate AM-peak, Midday-peak, PM-peak & Off-peak assignments

Improved free-flow speeds and varying capacities by TOD by reversible lanes Separate volume-delay functions (defaults) Unsignalized facilities = 0.20; = 10.0 Signalized facilities = 0.05; = 10.0 Feedback assignment Feedback Loop 24-Hour Average Speed Gravity Model TOD Trip Table Factoring

AM-peak Assignment Midday-peak Assignment PM-peak Assignment 24-Hour Weighted Average Congested Link Speed Off-peak Assignment

CAL_REP Assignment post-processor written in GIS-dk and incorporated in the GUI Various error statistics by functional classification, volume group, screenline, cutline and specific corridors Error statistics total counts, average counts, counts standard deviation total loadings, average loadings, loadings standard deviation % root mean square error mean error, % error total counts VMT, total loadings VMT, % VMT error Assignment Results

CAL_REP Report Loading % error = -1 % Loading VMT error = 0.9% % RMSE = 25% Interstate = 0.03% (% error); -2.6% (VMT error) Urban Principal Arterial = -1.3%; -3.1% Urban Minor Arterial = -3.8%; 3.7% In Progress Model runs for future years and post-processing 2030 with committed projects only 2010 with committed plus Plan projects scheduled for completion by 2010

2020 with committed plus Plan projects scheduled for completion by 2020 2030 with all projects in the current LRP Multinet handling feature in GUI for efficient network data THANK YOU!

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