PP2D7 Materials Availability and Security of Supply
IEA Workshop, San Diego October 2003 Summary of the European SERF-3 Programme David Ward, Ian Cook Culham Science Centre on behalf of GianCarlo Tosato & the SERF Team This work was jointly funded by the EPSRC and by EURATOM Internal Costs of Fusion Electricity Can a fusion power plant load-follow? 40 Q Frecirc(%) 30 Yes (Economic penalty at operating below design power) 20
10 0 0 0.5 1 Pne t(GW ) 1.5 2 International benchmarking studies of fusion costs Capital cost (M$) 2500 2000 1500 ARIES RS PROCESS 1000 500
0 EU and US cost assessments similar overall for the same assumptions. Some notable exceptions in detailed breakdown of components Current Drive Power (MW) Interactions between physics and technology developments can be quite complex 250 200 150 Pcd 100 50 0 0 5 10 15 20
25 2 Divertor Heat Load Limit (MW/m ) Example: Higher tolerable divertor heat load imposes lower penalty on main plasma. Lower plasma current and lower current drive power becomes feasible. External Costs of Fusion Electricity External costs of wide variety of fusion power plant designs Plant Model FW/blanket structure Tritiumgenerating material Neutron multiplier FW/blanket coolant
Li17Pb83 Helium and liquid Li17Pb83 6 SiC/SiC Li4SiO4 ceramic pebble bed beryllium helium Externalities of fusion plants are the lowest achievable even by advanced technologies 20 18 16 mEuro/kWh 14 12 10
8 6 4 2 0 CC IG PF BC s n 6 s s C al q. q. q. l2 l1 l3 el io ie
5ie CC FC m se se se CF at er de 4er de de he er t t c 2 PA o 2 o o l 2 M
t t NG i w h f t e O m m m ba ba si lls f ly l ls C CO CO od eo n n n ga
ut ce G ce io io io m it h th th th it h i i o i l l s s s s w n w h e
w e w w t o Fu Fu Fu d as Fu si wi Fu PV in CC BC CC om V Fu F i W G IG
P P B N Occupational accidents Occupational exposure Global dispersion C14 and H-3 Local effect of routine releases Occupational building accidents Transport of materials Manufacturing of materials
mEuro/kWh Conventional cost items make the largest contribution to the externalities 1.80E-01 1.60E-01 1.40E-01 1.20E-01 1.00E-01 8.00E-02 6.00E-02 4.00E-02 2.00E-02 0.00E+00 Model 4 Model 5 Model 6 Fusion as Part of the Energy System Valuation of the fusion R&D programme Concept demonstrator research
Prototype technology development Pilot plant scale-up First plant in use first further implementation applications Incorporates ITER, IFMIF DEMO through to commercialisation Risk-adjusted net present value of the fusion R&D programme 3500 3000 2500
2000 value $bn 1500 1000 500 0 0 3 2.5 development discount rate 5 5 7 exploitation discount rate Electricity production [TWh] . India energy scenario with no pollution constraints 5000,00
4500,00 4000,00 3500,00 3000,00 2500,00 2000,00 1500,00 1000,00 500,00 0,00 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 Almost all coal Renewables Biomass Nuclear Hydro Gas Coal Electricity Production [TWh] . India energy scenario with CO2 restriction 5000,00
4500,00 4000,00 3500,00 3000,00 2500,00 2000,00 1500,00 1000,00 500,00 0,00 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100 Low coal, gas takes over, others expand including fusion Renewables Biomass Fusion Nuclear Hydro Gas Coal Effect of adding 7GW of generation in North Germany and removing 7GW from South Additional power flows within Germany and
trade with neighbouring countries. System upgrades needed. 7% of power lost in transmission. Fusion and Public Opinion Environmental Risk (1 very low, 5 very high) Public perception of risk associated with different energy sources 5 4 3 2 1 Carried out by Focus Groups analysis based around siting of ITER in Cadarache. This is somewhat at odds with the externalities assessment. Better information on fusion required, or underestimation of risks from other sources (e.g. biomass pollution)? Public support for future energy strategies
Support for Strategy (1 none, 5 very strong) 5 4 3 2 1 Summary of Main Points Internal costs of fusion: - Fusion power stations will be able to load-follow, with some economic penalty. - International (EU and US) benchmarking studies show generally good agreement in the overall cost of plant and cost of electricity. - Complex strong linkages between plasma physics, technology and economics have been elucidated. External costs of fusion: - External costs of plant models utilising silicon carbide in the blankets are extremely low, even lower than the earlier plant models. - For these models the largest contributions to the external costs are from conventional items such as accidents during construction. Summary of Main Points (2)
Fusion as part of the energy system: - The expected net present value of fusion development, derived from a probabilistic analysis, is substantially positive, in spite of the fact that successful commercial realisation is not certain. - Modelling of the future energy market in India, with pollution constraints, shows that the growth in coal use is suppressed, in spite of the large growth in electricity consumption, and fusion is introduced. - Looking at a future electricity network as a whole there is additional value in lowcarbon energy sources, such as fusion, that can provide firm power in diverse geographical locations. This additional value derives from transmission and network stability considerations. Summary of Main Points (3) Fusion and public opinion: - There is a generally favourable public view of fusion as part of the future energy system, although there are apparent deficiencies in the information that is reaching the public.
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