Presentation Andrew Rogerson

Presentation Andrew Rogerson

Financing the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: a Rough Road-Map Andrew Rogerson Senior Research Associate Accra, 18 March 2015 (Drawn from Kharas, Prizzon and Rogerson, Dec 2014, and Carter et al, forthcoming)

Addis 2015 FFD-a shifting world 30-30-130. 30-odd LICs; 30-odd donors; 130-odd are neither What is in it for this majority? Is aid (a la Monterrey) a ritual sideshow? From where else will big new finance be unlocked? What incentives do UMICs have to make any commitments? Why show ones hand before New York and Paris (eg on carbon taxes)? 2 Finance flows and development goals

Top-line recommendations concessional assistance redirect this finite resource towards most vulnerable, least creditworthy countries, lowest tax capacity market-related public borrowing raise far more of it, especially through

MDBs and bilateral official credits, for countries doing relatively better. private finance Improve the deal flow, reduce distortions across uses and unblock regulatory obstacles to wider access 4

2- The Missing Middle: International flows fall faster than tax revenues rise 5 Missing middle-again (Kharas/MacArthur 2015) 6

The missing middle (3) : Boost market-related lending Review demand for non-concessional MDB financing Leverage receivables of concessional windows Smoothen graduation to market-related funding Improve competitiveness of MDB delivery Agree on a new international indicator for official finance (OF) Set a new international target for OF 7

Incentivize private finance and align it with development objectives Establish basic metrics for private finance for development (PFFD) Encourage guarantees, insurance and other contingent finance Increase supply of bankable projects, partnerships, hubs, regulatory support, for key investment groups: transport, energy, ag, ITT, SEs.. 8

Market Aid Index 9 Minimise allocation distortions inherent in public climate mitigation finance Finance mitigation mainly on market-related loan terms, with grants reserved for demonstration programmes in less creditworthy countries Establish a target of 50% for the share of concessional assistance

for adaptation going to LDCs and SIDS 10 ODI is the UKs leading independent think tank on international development and humanitarian issues. We aim to inspire and inform policy and practice to reduce poverty by locking together high-quality applied research and practical

policy advice. The views presented here are those of the speaker, and do not necessarily represent the views of ODI or our partners. Overseas Development Institute 203 Blackfriars Road, London, SE1 8NJ T: +44 207 9220 300 [email protected]

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