Radiological Terrorism: Dirty Bombs - Fact and Fiction
Radiological Terrorism: Dirty Bombs Fact and Fiction An Educational Briefing By The HEALTH PHYSICS SOCIETY Specialists in Radiation Safety April 8, 2003 Radiological Terrorism: Dirty Bombs Fact and
Fiction Briefing Moderator John R. Frazier, Ph.D., CHP President, Health Physics Society Presentation Agenda Dirty Bombs: Fact and Fiction Eric E. Kearsley, Ph.D., CHP How Do We Control Radioactive Material
Under The Old and New Paradigm? Keith H. Dinger, CHP Who Will Mind The Store? Kenneth R. Kase, Ph.D., CHP Questions & Answers Panel of Experts in the Audience Dirty Bombs: Fact and Fiction Eric E. Kearsley, Ph.D., CHP
High Point High School Beltsville, Maryland What kinds of bombs are we talking about? Radiological Dispersion DevicesRDDs Radioactive materials spread around by conventional explosives or other means Poor mans nuclear weaponNOT! Background
Considered by Allies during WW II Recent threats RDD Design Type of radioactive material Dispersal strategy RDD Design Type of radiation Penetrating radiationexternal hazard; difficult to shield/conceal
Non-penetratinginternal hazard; easier to shield/conceal; more difficult to detect RDD Design Some sources of material Radiotherapy sources Industrial radiography sources Thermal generators Potential Sources
Dose Rate vs Radius for 1000 Curies of Cesium-137 Dose Rate (mSv/h) 200 150 100 50
0 0 50 100 150 Radius (m eters)
200 250 Dose Rate vs Radius for 1000 Curies of Cesium-137 Dose Rate (mSv/h) 1.000
Radius (kilometers) 20 25 Dose Rates for the 1000 Curie Example Radius (meters) Dose Rate (mSv/h)
50 12 100 3.5 150
1.7 200 1 What are the effects? Medical/Health Psychosocial Economic
Medical/Health Effects No clinical effects below 350 mSv For 1000 Ci spread out over an area with a radius of 100 meters, an individual would have to remain for 100 hours to receive this dose (i.e., continuously for 4 days). Medical/Health Effects Other than the injury from the explosion, the principle health risk at expected dose
levels is the possible increased risk of cancer. At 100 mSv the lifetime risk of fatal cancer is believed to be increased from about 20% (all causes) to about 20.5 %. Psychosocial Effects Fear/Panic Transportation paralysis Demand for medical evaluation
Psychosocial Effects Emotional, physical, and cognitive effects Social withdrawal Stigma Potential for immediate and long-term care Economic Effects Clean up costs Impact on commerce
Public Policy Issues Education of Leaders Emergency responders Press Public Public Policy Issues Clean-up criteria Agriculture
Urban areas National monuments Public Policy Issues Detection--how do first responders distinguish between a "clean" bomb and a "dirty bomb? Public Policy Issues How do we control radioactive material? Old paradigm: safety New paradigm: security & safety
How Do We Control Radioactive Material Under The Old and New Paradigm? Keith H. Dinger, CHP Harvard School of Public Health Boston, Massachusetts Radiation Controls in the U.S. - A Word About the Current (Old) Paradigm Todays regulatory framework for control of
exposure from radioactive material and radiation producing machines is the result of over 100 years of evolution in the use and understanding of radioactive materials and radiation. How do we control radioactive material under the old and new paradigm? How is it done?
Who does it? How is radioactive material controlled? Old Paradigm: Based on an inherent classification system that Is based on the potential for use by responsible parties of radioactive material [for the benefit of society] and the extent of the threat to public health and safety posed by that potential
How is radioactive material controlled? New Paradigm: Develop a classification system that Is based on the potential for use by terrorists of radioactive material [for the harm of society] and the extent of the threat to public health and safety posed by that potential* * paraphrase from S350/HR891 Dirty Bomb Prevention Act of 2003
How is radioactive material controlled? Old Paradigm: The classification takes into account Radioactivity levels of the material Dispersibility of the material Chemical and physical form of the material Intended use of the material Other appropriate factors
How is radioactive material controlled? New Paradigm: The classification takes into account Radioactivity levels of the material Dispersibility of the material Chemical and physical form of the material Intended use of the material Other appropriate factors * paraphrase from S350/HR891 Dirty Bomb Prevention Act of 2003
Comparison of Old and New Paradigm for Control Old Paradigm requires control of the exposure of people and the environment from the beneficial use of sources New Paradigm requires control of the sources to not allow the exposure of people and the environment from a sinister use of sources
Comparison of Old and New Paradigm for Control Both require a classification system for radioactive material to ensure resources are properly focused on the potential for a threat to public health and safety The New Paradigm requires greater security controls for a small number of radioactive sources The Old Paradigm will continue to require lesser safety controls for a large number of
radioactive sources Who controls the radioactive material in the U.S.? Major Entities with Regulatory Responsibilities for Radioactive Material: Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Department of Energy (DOE) Department of Defense States
Which entity controls the radioactive material in the U.S.? It Depends Intended Use and Activity Civilian Commercial power, research, test reactor Industry Medical Academia
Consumer Products Transportation, storage, and disposal Military Nuclear weapons Naval Reactors Program Research reactors Which entity controls the radioactive material in the
U.S.? It Depends Origin Made in a reactor or result of a reactors operation * Left over from extraction of U or Th from ores * Made in an accelerator
Naturally occurring * Termed Byproduct material Type Source material (U and Th) Special nuclear material (U-233, U-235, Pu) Which entity controls the radiation exposure in the U.S.? If radiation protection standards and radiation
producing machines are considered add the: Environmental Protection Agency Food and Drug Administration Department of Labor OSHA MSHA Radiation Regulatory Framework Old Paradigm Complex
Inefficient Redundant Incomplete Effectiveness of Radioactive Material Control Under Current Regulatory Framework Orphaned Sources Up to 500,000 of the estimated 2,000,000 sources in the U.S. are no longer needed 1 About 375 sources are reported orphaned in the
US each year 1 Can infer only a small fraction of these have the potential for a heightened security concern 2 1 Background Information Paper, Health Physics Society, April 2002 2 Commercial Radioactive Sources: Surveying the Security Risks, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Occasional Paper No. 11, Jan 2003
Radiation Regulatory Framework New Paradigm Technical and Organizational Complexity Requires Competence Who will mind the store? Who Will Mind The Store?
- The Health Physics Human Capital Crisis Kenneth R. Kase, Ph.D., CHP Stanford Linear Accelerator Center Menlo Park, California The Human Capital Crisis Where are professional health physicists needed? Security Health Energy
The Human Capital Crisis Indicators There is a serious projected shortage of professional Health Physicists over the next 10 years NEI Commissioned Study Reported in 2001 Insufficient workers will be available to meet industry demand in two job pipelines:- Health Physicists (shortage is about 700 HPs over 10 years) 1
NEI Chairman noted A particular difficulty in employing degreed HPs is that the demand for these candidates extends well beyond the nuclear energy industry. Most degreed HPs go directly from college and pursue careers in medicine, research and other industrial applications. 2 1 2
Nuclear Pipeline Analysis Report for NEI by Navigant Consulting, 12/17/01 Staffing Nuclear Energys Future, remarks by Joe Colvin, President and CEO, NEI, at INPO CEO conference 11/8/01 The Human Capital Crisis Indicators (continued) HPS Position Statement present demand for radiation safety professionals is approximately 130% of supply. Demand during the
next five years, which appears to be related solely to attrition, outstrips supply by nearly 160%. 1 Four Health Physics University Programs closed in 1990s HP University Program support by DOE (EH&S)
was terminated in 1999 1 Human Capital Crisis in Radiation Safety, Position Statement of the Health Physics Society, August 2001 The Human Capital Crisis HPS Actions Commissioned Health Physics Manpower Assessment
Communicating with Congress Authorizing legislation introduced in 107th Providing testimony to Appropriations Committees for FY04 Communicating with Federal Agencies DOE, NSF, DNFSB, NRC, EPA Working with Industry NEI, EFCOG
Briefing Summary Take Home Messages Briefing Moderator John R. Frazier, Ph.D., CHP President, Health Physics Society Take Home Messages Dirty Bombs The spread of radioactive material is unpredictable due to all the variables associated with a specific bomb and location
The more the material is dispersed the lower the radiation dose to anyone in the area It is very unlikely anyone will have clinically observable effects due to radiation exposure The primary health effect will be Psychosocial effects There will be some economic burden resulting from a dirty bomb explosion An important strategy to mitigating a dirty bombs effects is education leaders, general public, first responders Take Home Messages
Source Control and Regulatory Framework New paradigm for source controls requires consideration of security with safety New paradigm requires a new focus but it must still be based on a Classification System, like that inherent in the Old Paradigm. Only a small fraction of orphan sources in the U.S. may have a potential for security concerns, but the existence of orphan sources continues to be a public health issue from the focus of the Old paradigm i.e., safety. Although the current Regulatory Framework is based on
providing safety in the control of sources, it is decentralized and inefficient Take Home Messages Health Physics Human Capital Crisis Professional health physics expertise is needed to support the Nations Security, Health, and Energy policies. There is a projected shortfall of professional health physicists for positions requiring professional
radiation safety expertise Health Physics Academic programs will continue to decline without Federal financial support Questions?
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