Risk Compensation Theory: How Promoting a Risk-Reducing ...

Risk Compensation Theory: How Promoting a Risk-Reducing ...

Risk Compensation Theory: How Promoting a Risk-Reducing Offering Can Encourage Risky Behaviors Paul N. Bloom Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Overview of Presentation Introduce the problem Propose a few theoretical notions Report on initial empirical results Suggest future research directions The Problem

Remedy products/messages seek to reduce the perceived costs and increase the perceived effectiveness of risk-reducing remedies. But messages could instead reduce the perceived risks of the risky behavior, undermining risk avoidance (like a get out of jail free or cheaper card) Evidence of risk compensation (or risk homeostasis or offsetting) in studies of: seat belts, antilock brakes, bicycle helmets, lowalcohol beverages, condom use, HIV drugs, and Subway ads But why do some people compensate and others dont? Perceived SelfEfficacy at Reducing Risk + +

Past Risky Behaviors + - + Remedy Message Exposure + Perceived Costs of Remedy

- - + + Perceived Likelihood of Harm Future Risky Behaviors - Perceived Risk

Perceived Severity of Harm + + For Smokers/Borrowers/etc.: Message increases self-efficacy (which is high anyway), lowers perceived costs, lowers perceived likelihood of harm, lowers perceived severity, increases risky behaviors (especially for risk tolerant). For Non-Smokers/Borrowers/etc.: Message has little effect on self-efficacy or perceived costs or perceived likelihood of harm, increases perceived severity, reduces risky behaviors. Risk Tolerance Results of Four Studies

NRT Message vs. Risk Avoidance Message; past behavior measured Debt Consolidation vs. Risk Avoidance; past behavior manipulated. Diarrhea Remedy vs. Risk Avoidance Safer Cigarette vs. Risk Avoidance Experiment 1: NRT 2 (Remedy message: Nicotrol v. control) x 2 (Problem status: smoker v. non-smoker) x 2 (Target judgment: other v. self) mixed design. Random assignment to message Screened for smokers and non-smokers on campus Used Rindfleisch and Crockett (1999) risk perceptions scale and other scales about John and Jane Smoker first then more direct questions

LIVE A SMOKE-FREE LIFE AND LIVE LONGER AND HEALTHIER: INTRODUCING THE NICOTROL INHALER Proven to be successful. Easy to use and worth it. WHY SHOULD I QUIT SMOKING? Smoking cigarettes has lead to the premature death of over 430,000 Americans each year as well as extended suffering from debilitating illnesses such as cancer, heart disease and emphysema. It has been established that smoking is responsible for 1 out of 5 U.S. deaths each year. For every 3 people who begin smoking and smoke on a regular basis, 1 will die of a smoking-related illness. Remember, the damage caused by each cigarette is cumulative: every cigarette increases the odds of premature illness and death. WHY SHOULD I USE NICOTROL? Nicotrol works! In clinical trials even heavy smokers achieed high success rates with the Nicotrol system. Many had failed to quit both on their own and with other methods. Nicotrol is unique. Achieve your smoke-free goals with Nicotrol. CAN I SUCCEED WITH NICOTROL? Quitting smoking has never been easy. But the Nicotrol system is easy to use, so people stay with it. Simply substitute the Nicotrol inhaler for your own smoking habits; as your body adjusts to not smoking, you stop or slowly reduce the dosage. LLIVE A SMOKE-FREE LIFE AND LIVE

LLONGER AND HEALTHIER Preparing yourself for quitting smoking Decide positively that you want to quit. Try to avoid negative thoughts about how difficult it might be. List all the reasons you want to quit. Every night before going to bed, repeat one of the reasons 10 times out loud. Develop strong personal reasons in addition to your health and obligation to others. For example, think about how much money you spend on cigarettes each week, month, or year, as well as all the time you waste taking cigarette breaks, rushing out to buy a pack, hunting for a light, etc. Begin to condition yourself physically. Start a modest exercise program, drink more fluids and get plenty of rest. Set a target date for quitting perhaps a special day such as your birthday, your anniversary, or the Great American Smokeout. If you smoke heavily at work, quit FIGURE 4: SMOKING RISK PERCEPTIONS AS A FUNCTION OF

PROBLEM STATUS, REMEDY AND TARGET (OTHER SMOKERS VS. SELF) Risk Perceptions (1-5 scale) 4.5 Problem Status: Target: 4 Non-smoker Smoker Non-smoker Smoker 3.5 3 2.5

Control Nicotrol Remedy Message Other smokers Self EXPERIMENT 2: Debt Consolidation DebtLess is a debt consolidation program offered through is is a debt consolidation program offered through a is a debt consolidation program offered through debt is a debt consolidation program offered through consolidation is a debt consolidation program offered through program is a debt consolidation program offered through offered is a debt consolidation program offered through through is a debt consolidation program offered through various is a debt consolidation program offered through financial is a debt consolidation program offered through institutions. is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through With is a debt consolidation program offered through DebtLess, is a debt consolidation program offered through you is a debt consolidation program offered through can is a debt consolidation program offered through combine is a debt consolidation program offered through credit is a debt consolidation program offered through cards, is a debt consolidation program offered through auto is a debt consolidation program offered through loans, is a debt consolidation program offered through student is a debt consolidation program offered through loans, is a debt consolidation program offered through etc. is a debt consolidation program offered through into is a debt consolidation program offered through one is a debt consolidation program offered through lower is a debt consolidation program offered through monthly is a debt consolidation program offered through payment is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through save is a debt consolidation program offered through thousands is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through dollars is a debt consolidation program offered through in is a debt consolidation program offered through interest is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through late is a debt consolidation program offered through charges. is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through If is a debt consolidation program offered through high is a debt consolidation program offered through interest is a debt consolidation program offered through rates is a debt consolidation program offered through are is a debt consolidation program offered through eating is a debt consolidation program offered through you is a debt consolidation program offered through alive, is a debt consolidation program offered through DebtLess is a debt consolidation program offered through can is a debt consolidation program offered through help! is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through Contact is a debt consolidation program offered through your is a debt consolidation program offered through local is a debt consolidation program offered through financial is a debt consolidation program offered through institution is a debt consolidation program offered through for is a debt consolidation program offered through further is a debt consolidation program offered through information. The is a debt consolidation program offered through advantages is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through a is a debt consolidation program offered through debt is a debt consolidation program offered through

consolidation is a debt consolidation program offered through loan is a debt consolidation program offered through include: You is a debt consolidation program offered through pay is a debt consolidation program offered through less is a debt consolidation program offered through each is a debt consolidation program offered through month. You is a debt consolidation program offered through may is a debt consolidation program offered through be is a debt consolidation program offered through able is a debt consolidation program offered through to is a debt consolidation program offered through deduct is a debt consolidation program offered through interest is a debt consolidation program offered through off is a debt consolidation program offered through taxes. You is a debt consolidation program offered through can is a debt consolidation program offered through send is a debt consolidation program offered through out is a debt consolidation program offered through one is a debt consolidation program offered through payment is a debt consolidation program offered through instead is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through several. You is a debt consolidation program offered through can is a debt consolidation program offered through eliminate is a debt consolidation program offered through creditor is a debt consolidation program offered through harassment. FIGURE 5: FINANCIAL RISK PERCEPTIONS AS A FUNCTION OF PROBLEM STATUS AND REMEDY Risk Perceptions (1-5 scale) 5 4.5 4 3.5

Good Financial Health 3 Poor Financial Health 2.5 2 1.5 1 Control Remedy (low effectiveness) Message Remedy (high

effectiveness) Experiment 3: Diarrhea Remedy PharmaCure is a debt consolidation program offered through is is a debt consolidation program offered through pleased is a debt consolidation program offered through to is a debt consolidation program offered through announce is a debt consolidation program offered through a is a debt consolidation program offered through new is a debt consolidation program offered through antibiotic is a debt consolidation program offered through medicine is a debt consolidation program offered through specifically is a debt consolidation program offered through developed is a debt consolidation program offered through for is a debt consolidation program offered through the is a debt consolidation program offered through prevention is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through treatment is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through travelers is a debt consolidation program offered through diarrhea. is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through Diarrhea is a debt consolidation program offered through is is a debt consolidation program offered through by is a debt consolidation program offered through far is a debt consolidation program offered through the is a debt consolidation program offered through commonest is a debt consolidation program offered through cause is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through ill is a debt consolidation program offered through health is a debt consolidation program offered through in is a debt consolidation program offered through travelers, is a debt consolidation program offered through affecting is a debt consolidation program offered through an is a debt consolidation program offered through estimated is a debt consolidation program offered through 50% is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through all is a debt consolidation program offered through travelers. is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through It is a debt consolidation program offered through may is a debt consolidation program offered through cause is a debt consolidation program offered through anything is a debt consolidation program offered through from is a debt consolidation program offered through embarrassment is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through inconvenience is a debt consolidation program offered through to is a debt consolidation program offered through misery is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through disruption is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through travel is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through business is a debt consolidation program offered through plans. is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through If is a debt consolidation program offered through not is a debt consolidation program offered through immediately is a debt consolidation program offered through treated, is a debt consolidation program offered through it is a debt consolidation program offered through may is a debt consolidation program offered through even is a debt consolidation program offered through be is a debt consolidation program offered through fatal. is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through Contaminated is a debt consolidation program offered through food is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through drink is a debt consolidation program offered through are is a debt consolidation program offered through the is a debt consolidation program offered through most is a debt consolidation program offered through common is a debt consolidation program offered through sources is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through bacterial is a debt consolidation program offered through agents is a debt consolidation program offered through sources is a debt consolidation program offered through of is a debt consolidation program offered through contaminated is a debt consolidation program offered through (e.g., is a debt consolidation program offered through e.coli, is a debt consolidation program offered through listeria) is a debt consolidation program offered through tCommon is a debt consolidation program offered through hat is a debt consolidation program offered through cause is a debt consolidation program offered through travelers is a debt consolidation program offered through diarrhea. is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through food is a debt consolidation program offered through

and is a debt consolidation program offered through drink: Unpasteurised is a debt consolidation program offered through milk, is a debt consolidation program offered through dishes is a debt consolidation program offered through containing is a debt consolidation program offered through eggs is a debt consolidation program offered through (e.g., is a debt consolidation program offered through sauces, is a debt consolidation program offered through many is a debt consolidation program offered through desserts) is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through ice is a debt consolidation program offered through cream Uncooked is a debt consolidation program offered through food is a debt consolidation program offered through is a debt consolidation program offered through even is a debt consolidation program offered through fruits is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through vegetables is a debt consolidation program offered through (unless is a debt consolidation program offered through they is a debt consolidation program offered through can is a debt consolidation program offered through be is a debt consolidation program offered through peeled is a debt consolidation program offered through or is a debt consolidation program offered through shelled) Cooked is a debt consolidation program offered through food is a debt consolidation program offered through that is a debt consolidation program offered through isnt is a debt consolidation program offered through thoroughly is a debt consolidation program offered through and is a debt consolidation program offered through freshly is a debt consolidation program offered through cooked is a debt consolidation program offered through (i.e., is a debt consolidation program offered through piping is a debt consolidation program offered through hot) Water, is a debt consolidation program offered through including is a debt consolidation program offered through drinks is a debt consolidation program offered through made is a debt consolidation program offered through with is a debt consolidation program offered through water is a debt consolidation program offered through or is a debt consolidation program offered through ice FIGURE 6: HEALTH RISK PERCEPTIONS AS A FUNCTION OF REMEDY EFFECTIVENESS Risk Perceptions (1-5 scale) 5 4.5

4 3.5 3 Control Remedy (low effectiveness) Message Remedy (high effectiveness) Experiment 4: Safer Cigarette Control vs. Arrive 4 Social Risk

3.5 3 2.5 Non-Smokers Smokers 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 80% Prob. Quit Soon 70% 60% 50%

Non-Smokers Smokers 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Control vs. Arrive Future Directions How are susceptibles affected by remedy messages? Can messages tip the balance? Does framing of remedy messages (prevention or promotion) make a difference? Can people be inoculated against a boomerang effect? How do you persuade people to use a remedy

sooner rather than later?

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