SEI PowerPoint Title Slide

SEI PowerPoint Title Slide

SCSS 2019 Mini-Tutorial: Emerging Technologies for SoftwareReliant Systems February 13, 2019 Eileen Wrubel, Grace Lewis, Ipek Ozkaya, Sam Procter, Erin Harper Title of the Presentation Goes Here 2018 Carnegie Mellon University Approved and unlimited distribution. [[DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT STATEMENT A] Please copy for andpublic pasterelease the appropriate distribution statement into this space.] 1 Picture (Optional) Copyright 2019 Carnegie Mellon University. All Rights Reserved. This material is based upon work funded and supported by the Department of Defense under Contract No. FA8702-15-D-0002 with Carnegie

Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally funded research and development center. The view, opinions, and/or findings contained in this material are those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official Government position, policy, or decision, unless designated by other documentation. NO WARRANTY. THIS CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY AND SOFTWARE ENGINEERING INSTITUTE MATERIAL IS FURNISHED ON AN "AS-IS" BASIS. CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY MAKES NO WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ANY MATTER INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PURPOSE OR MERCHANTABILITY, EXCLUSIVITY, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM USE OF THE MATERIAL. CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTY OF ANY KIND WITH RESPECT TO FREEDOM FROM PATENT, TRADEMARK, OR COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT. [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] This material has been approved for public release and unlimited distribution. Please see Copyright notice for non-US Government use and distribution. This material may be reproduced in its entirety, without modification, and freely distributed in written or electronic form without requesting formal permission. Permission is required for any other use. Requests for permission should be directed to the Software Engineering Institute at [email protected] DM19-0126 Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 2 Background This presentation is a result of an exercise that we do every 23 years to inform the SEI technical strategy. The task is to explore a wide range of emerging technologies to provide input for software-reliant systems that answers this question: What are the emerging technologies that will affect how software- reliant systems are developed, deployed and acquired in the DoD, now and in the future? Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems

2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 3 Background: Gartners Five-Stage Technology Lifecycle Time to reach plateau dimension Less than 2 years 25 years 510 years More than 10 years Obsolete before plateau Source: http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/metodologies/hype-cycle.jsp Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 4 Background: Exploiting and Not Being Exploited by Emerging Changes in Computing The focus of our work is different depending on where technologies are in the hype cycle Use cases for how these technologies

(may) affect DoD system development, deployment, and acquisition Training and other transition materials Reference architectures, methodologies, and prototypes that demonstrate how technologies can be inserted into new and existing systems Feasibility studies Technology scouting New use cases Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 5 Sources Business analysts

(e.g., Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2018; International Data Corporation (IDC), FutureScape: Worldwide IT Industry 2018 Predictions; ThoughtWorks, Technology Radar) Resources at the intersection of business and technology (e.g., Harvard Business Review, MIT Technology Review) Top software engineering resources (e.g., ICSE and IEEE Software) DoD studies and strategies (e.g., Summary of the National Defense Strategy 2018, Defense Science Board report, Design and Acquisition of Software for Defense Systems ) Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 6 Selected Emerging Technologies Near-Term Technologies Now Technologies Now2 years AI/ML Digital thread and digital twin Continuous automated software

engineering New programming languages and network technologies IoT platforms Low-code platforms (end-user programming) Long-Term Technologies Mid-Term Technologies 5+ years (watch long term) 25 years (watch near term) Quantum computing Blockchain Smart dust Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 7 Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning

Artificial intelligence (AI) is the theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision making, and translation between languages. Machine learning (ML) is a way of achieving AI. DoD Connections DoD is moving from C4I (command, control, communications, and intelligence) to A4I (advanced algorithms, autonomy, and AI). DoD has made AI a priority, which will require contractors to address AI and ML in systems. AI faces an explainability problem: If warfighters dont understand why a particular decision was made, they wont trust it. AI needs to explain its rationale and characterize how it will behave in the future (large DARPA research investment). Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution.

8 Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning Potential Areas for Innovation AI for software engineering: Use of ML techniques to improve software engineering practices Engineering AI systems: Best practices for incorporating ML capabilities into new and existing systems AI for DoD missions: ML techniques that consider the often-unique nature of DoD AI problems Explainable AI (XAI) Verification and validation for AI/ML systems Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 9 Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning Challenges AI and ML spending in the DoD will likely increase modestly in the next two years, but more so after that as plans and the reality of what is possible become clearer. Explainability, trust, repeatability, and reliability

Determining what is unique about applying ML to DoD problems Understanding effects of incorporating AI/ML components in new and legacy systems Global business value derived from artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to total $1.2 trillion in 2018, an increase of 70 percent from 2017 AI-derived business value is forecast to reach $3.9 trillion in 2022. Gartner Research Ethics and AI (including security and privacy) Source: https://ai.cs.cmu.edu/about Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 10 Continuous Automated Software Engineering Automate the lifecycle: Expand on

SecDevOps and CI/CD to build resilient, smart pipelines for automated development, verification, certification, deployment, delivery, and repair. Integrate into SecDevOps Development assistance Debugging assistance Automated code repair Chaos engineering AI/ML components, explainable AI DoD Connections Compile to Combat in 24: allow the Navy to deploy new software capabilities in under 24 hours instead of the current 18-month time frame (tactical cloud, continuous authorization, microservices, continuous ATO via accredited toolchain) Multiple high-assurance/safety-critical systems programs Programs in which development and deployment environments operate at different classification levels Establishment of USAF PEO Digital

Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 11 Continuous Automated Software Engineering Potential Areas for Innovation Using infrastructure as code (IaC) to produce ATO-ready deployments and formal verification of IaC scripts DevOps for ML systems Incorporating Chaos Engineering practices into the CI/CD pipeline Integration of modeling, simulation, automated debugging, code assistance, and automated test generation/repair into the CI/CD pipeline Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 12 Continuous Automated Software Engineering Iterative Development Process Challenges

Integrating DevOps pipelines in legacy environments SecDevOps-enabled automated governance requires explainable, trusted evidence to support accreditation Closing the gap with productionrepresentative environments for complex safety-critical systems Integration and alignment of acquisition/business and technical processes throughout the disparate elements of the acquisition ecosystem In a future war we could be changing software every day as a necessary factor for winning Dr. Will Roper, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 13 Internet of Things (IoT) Platforms An internet of things (IoT) platform is software that enables development, deployment, and management of solutions that connect to and capture data from IoT endpoints. IoT platforms can be delivered as a

hybrid combination of edge platforms and/or cloud IoT platform as a service. DoD Connections Edge devices for tactical users that collect and process data from IoT devices Managing security risks from commercial devices at the edge to further enable the DoDs use of IoT technology IoT applications within the DoD typically incorporate several aspects of big data, AI/ML, and the cloud While the DoD has made progress in adopting IoT technologies, there are still many unexplored/untapped use cases, such as growth in off-battlefield application areas including facility management and environmental monitoring Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 14

Internet of Things (IoT) Platforms Potential Areas for Innovation Secure IoT platforms Edge ML for IoT 5G and IoT Changing interaction models with technology Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 15 Internet of Things (IoT) Platforms Challenges IoT represents the next phase in the evolution of technology If the government and DoD arent involved in shaping the

security of these devices, were going to find ourselves at a severe loss. National Security Agency IoT security (at the top of the challenges list, in particular for DoD) International Data Corporation reports that, by next year, over 20% of container instances will be running at edge locations serving IoT workloads, which supports the use of edge computing as a solution for the IoT data deluge. Hardware dependency and connectivity IoT data deluge Lack of regulations, in particular from government to accelerate application of IoT advances for the public sector (e.g., for smart cities) Source data: ARM Holdings Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution.

16 Digital Thread and Digital Twin The digital thread is a model of the system that begins at conceptualization and evolves through its life to retirement; the digital twin is a model of the system as built, including any manufacturing discrepancies, that is used to support the system in service. Digital twins include the model, data, a one-to-one association to the object, and the ability to monitor it. DoD Connections DoD recognizes that the fly-fix-fly or operate-fix-operate modes of operation are not sustainable anymore. Digital thread and digital twin are the next-generation models, which also incorporate model-basedengineering techniques. DoD has several small to large efforts underway in this area (e.g., at AFRL; three pilots in Air Force)

AFRL began investigating a digital twin approach to predict aircraft structural life around 2009. Recent discussion with the AFRL lead indicates they see it as a 30+ year objective (Tuegel), in Navy Platform Digital Twin, by Thomas C. Fu, PhD, SES Director, Ship Systems & Engineering Research, May 2017 Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 17 Digital Thread and Digital Twin Potential Areas for Innovation Developing modeling techniques for digital twins Real-time and data architectures to leverage digital twins Applying ML techniques to continuously update and learn from collected data Real-time data analysis and decision support Predictive and just-in-time maintenance to improve supply chain resource management Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 18 Digital Thread and Digital Twin

The current acceleration of digital twins is mainly possible thanks to the IoT and the lowering costs of technologies that boosted both IoT and the digital twin. IoT and sensors (transducers) power digital twins. Challenges www.i-scoop.eu/ Implementing such a framework is not trivial as there are many subcomponents. Progress is needed in model-based engineering, ML, and the availability of database technology for big data to accelerate pilots and adoption. Different stakeholders need to consume the digital twin and thread for different decision-making capabilities. By 2020, 30% of G2000 companies will be using data from digital twins of IoTconnected products and assets to improve product innovation success rates, and organizational productivity, achieving gains of up to 25%. IDC We need to learn how to expose this information to all stakeholders, who

might not be software engineers. Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 19 New Programming Languages and Network Technologies New languages such as Go, Rust, and Elixir have been developed in response to shortcomings in C and C++. They enable faster development of systems that are more performant (by making concurrent programming easier) secure (by eliminating classes of memory errors typically used in exploits) safe (enabling static checks for more types of errors) New networking technologies such as named data networking (NDN) and software-defined networks (SDN) also provide improved capability. DoD Connections The programming languages most in use in the DoD are Java, C, C++,

and Adayet many new languages should be evaluated in DoD contexts because they could significantly impact the safety, security, and affordability of the DoD codebase, such as - new, commercially supported languages (e.g., Rust, maintained by Mozilla; Go, maintained by Google) - new, academically developed languages with improved feature sets (e.g., Wyvern from CMU) The programmability of SDNs can help make the DoDs networks more secure and flexible, and less expensive to deploy and manage NDNs premise of being able to access data using named content instead of named hosts has high value for DoD systems focused on data dissemination Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 20 New Programming Languages New Network Technologies Potential Areas for Innovation

Potential Areas for Innovation Analysis of benefits/drawbacks of the use of new languages in the DoD Migration from legacy in other languages Making formal languages more accessible (e.g., SPARK Ada) Understanding effects of new networking technologies on system qualities such as security, scalability, performance, and reliability Using SDN for building dynamic network security frameworks Trust management and secure data naming models in NDN Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 21 New Programming Languages and Network Technologies Some desirable features of modern languages include Challenges

Understanding how to integrate new languages with existing codebases Understanding opportunities and challenges of polyglot programming thread safety Code can be safely run in multithreaded environments without manual coordination memory safety Pointers cannot be null, data races are impossible, etc. memory management Memory can be automatically reclaimed, greatly reducing memory leaks sophisticated type systems Enhance static verification capabilities The Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) is suggesting the use of SDN to make DoD networks more secure, flexible, and cheaper to deploy and manage. DISA director Alan Lynn described SDN as instead of having hardware its building a huge network just with software. How to choose which languages to incorporate and when to ensure they will be pervasive/ stick Understanding the effect of SDN and NDN on software systems

FedTech Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 22 Low-Code Platforms (End-User Programming) Low-code platforms provide an environment for the creation of software through graphical user interfaces and configuration. They reduce the amount of traditional hand-coding, enabling accelerated delivery of business applications. DoD Connections A common benefit is that a wider range of people can contribute to an application's developmentnot only those with formal programming skills. Low-code platforms could lower the barrier to entry for nontraditional suppliers bidding on major weapon systems. To better compete with large defense contractors, smaller competitors with good ideas could use low-code platforms to

prototype them and prove their concepts in the DoD space. These platforms enable citizen data science by providing interfaces for non-programmers. For example, in the DoD the Jupyter Notebook (an open-source web application) has been used to empower thousands of citizen data scientists to build and share analytics. The workforce skill gap in DoD for programmers could be bridged for some classes of systems (e.g., business applications). Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 23 Low-Code Platforms (End-User Programming) Potential Areas for Innovation Visual modeling Drag-and-drop user interfaces

Frameworks to design, build, and customize the platforms Development processes for these types of systems Explainability Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 24 Low-Code Platforms (End-User Programming) Challenges Security and compliance (How do you know if code written by end users is secure?) Assurance and accreditation (airworthiness, nuclear surety, etc.) NextGov suggests that low-code platforms need to meet these crucial requirements to drive changes in federal IT: fully leverage a cloud environment and support onpremises and hybrid deployments have the most stringent security accreditations operate identically on the web and mobile devices through a single development effort

provide proven enterprise-grade scalability Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 25 Blockchain Blockchain is a distributed database that enables participants in an industry ecosystem to transact with each other without relying on a central trusted authority to record and validate transactions. Even though blockchain has been used mostly in the context of cryptocurrency (e.g., BitCoin), and more recently for smart contracts, there are other emerging uses of blockchain that are worth exploring, especially with respect to scalability and performance. DoD Connections There are several pilots in progress in the DoD to test applicability: - Navy to bring added security to its manufacturing systems - NAVAIR to help track aviation parts - Across DoD for supply chain management and cybersecurity

Once the cost curve changes, adoption in DoD is likely to accelerate Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 26 Blockchain Potential Areas for Innovation Blockchain for data security Blockchain for data provenance Blockchain for IoT security Smart contracts Multi-chain integration/ecosystems Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 27 Blockchain

Challenges Potentially high hardware and software costs, along with operational costs Energy consumption Integration with legacy systems Privacy and security (not really bullet proof, although positioned as such) Because of the current expense, DoD needs to ask, Is there a specific property of blockchain that cannot be gained from any other technology? More DoD-specific use cases will be enabled when costs come down and other challenges have been overcome. Source: NISTIR 8202: Blockchain Technology Overview. Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 28

Quantum Computing Quantum computing is a type of non-classical computing that uses quantum bits (qubits) instead of binary bits. A qubit can be thought of like an imaginary sphere, in which a qubit can be at any point on the sphere (multiple states instead of just 0 and 1). A quantum computer gets its enormous processing power through the ability to be in multiple states and to perform tasks using all possible permutations simultaneously, which is why it is mainly targeted at very complex mathematical problems, modeling and simulation, and optimization. DoD Connections Quantum-resilient systems: NIST recognized the threat of quantum computing and in 2016 started a program to standardize quantumresilient replacement for public-key cryptography Senate Armed Services Committee is considering the Quantum Computing Research Act to promote adequate research and coordination across servicesa similar bill in the House called the National Quantum Initiative Act became law in December 2018 DARPA is particularly interested in learning about the ways quantum technology could improve general computing performance and accelerate artificial intelligence and machine learning systems National Strategic Overview for Quantum Information Science to create a visible, systematic, national approach to quantum information research and development

Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 29 Quantum Computing Potential Areas for Innovation Artificial intelligence algorithms, highly secure encryption for communications satellites, and accurate navigation that does not require GPS signals Migration to quantum programming languages (e.g., Microsofts QDK) Migration to quantum-resilient crypto systems Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 30 Quantum Computing Challenges

Although the marketplace is growing and Accenture estimates $1 billion was invested through public and private initiatives in 2016, consistent enterprise use of quantum hardware is still two to five years out. A lot has to happen before quantum computing can be applied to real problems or break todays cryptosystems. Accenture Labs (2017) QuantumComputing Report.com, an industry website, lists 19 publicly traded companies, 64 startups, and 58 investment funds. Experts state that useful work requires probably 200 entangled qubits. - Google announced in March 2018 its largest quantum computer, called Bristlecone, which is a 72-qubit quantum computer. - In addition, quantum computers still have high error rates, mainly due to the instability of the underlying subatomic particles. Source: Gartner Research

Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 31 Smart Dust Smart dust is composed of selfcontained sensing systems called motes, targeting the size of a grain of sand, about 1 cubic millimeter. These systems have the capability to sense, compute, communicate, and power their own activities. They are used to support a distributed sensing network, such as temperature, pressure, and environmental sensing, potentially using mesh to achieve communication coverage. As they do not use large antennas, these systems have ranges measured in just a few millimeters. DoD Connections Smart dust has huge potential for DoD for ISR and battlespace awareness. Future MEMS will sense a wide array of information with the processing and communication capabilities to act as independent or networked sensors, according to Defense One. Fused together into a network of nanosized particles distributed over the battlefield capable of measuring, collecting, and sending information, Smart Dust will transform persistent surveillance for the warfighter.

2018 Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 32 Smart Dust Potential Areas for Innovation Algorithms for self-organization and self-healing Communication protocols Systems architectures for systems that integrate smart dust Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 33 Smart Dust Challenges Due to the aspired size of motes, the two key challenges are power and communication. Security and privacy are also challenges given that most applications are related to data collection by invisible motes.

Smart dust "would be ideal for deployment during a natural disaster where the communications infrastructure is knocked out ... Or, in a combat situation where dust eyes and ears can relay enemy data for troop and support ordinance. On a smaller scale, these motes can be deployed within a house, or on a ranch or farm, or even in a forest to report almost any type of event. Rambus.com The potential of smart dust to collect information about any environment in incredible detail could impact plenty of things in a variety of industries from safety to compliance to productivity. Its like multiplying the internet of things technology millions or billions of times over. Forbes Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 34 Cross-Cutting Concerns The team identified several themes that run through the technology areas and use cases/applications researched Not emerging technologies in their own right, but affect multiple (or all) emerging technologies and DoD perspective on exploitation of emerging technologies:

Explainability and Trustworthiness Security and Privacy Autonomy Anything Advancing the State of the Practice Workforce Development Ethics The Department will invest broadly in military application of autonomy, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, including rapid application of commercial breakthroughs, to gain competitive military advantages. 2018 National Defense Strategy Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 35 Explainability and Trustworthiness How can we ensure that humans can explain and trust recommendations and outcomes of models, software, systems, and networks? Explainability: Do we understand why it did what it did? Assurance: Can we trust it to function properly and yield error-free results? Data integrity and provenance: Do we have

confidence that the data collected, generated, stored, and consumed has not been/is not compromised and can be traced? Resilience: Do we have confidence that we can continue operations if compromised? Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 36 Security and Privacy Security and privacy as key system quality concerns are put to test with the increasing capabilities of emerging technologies, such as AI and the potential threat of quantum algorithms to break crypto systems. Approaches and algorithms that further guarantee these quality attributes are critical enablers for all emerging technologies. Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 37 Autonomy Anything An autonomous agent is an intelligent agent operating on an owner's behalf, but

without any interference of that ownership entity. - It shifts humans away from repetitive, physical, isolated, or hazardous tasks. Autonomous agents will increasingly be part of software-enabled systems and capabilities for - automotive and robotics domains - DevOps, low-code programming, and AI I think autonomy is going to change everything Dr. Will Roper, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 38 Advancing the State of the Practice Many technologies and approaches that have been broadly adopted in commercial practice have not yet been widely adopted in DoD/governmentunique contexts, including Agile/Lean/DevOps open source platforms/tools microservices/cloud computing These technologies and approaches also enable or contribute to many of the emerging technology areas. Appropriately exploiting these opportunities in the design, development, test, and deployment of

software will accelerate the delivery of capability and enable future innovation. Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 39 Workforce Development Significant skillset gaps, especially in AI and blockchain technology, will challenge both DoD and its contractors. These skill gap challenges also apply to cybersecurity and privacy. According to one estimate, by 2021 an estimated 3.5 million cybersecurity jobs will be unfilled. And of the candidates who apply, fewer than one in four are qualified. Approaches that assist developers even when they are novices or mid-level will help bridge this gap, such as automation in conformance checking, bug fixing, and assurance. Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 40 Ethics ACM and IEEE Computer Society jointly released, and

updated in 2018, the Software Engineering Code of Ethics and Professional Practice. The implications are not just for practice but also for how systems are designed and implemented, ensuring that data used for analysis is not biased APIs do not expose details analysis techniques are safe-guarded against abuse These concerns are increasingly aspects to be considered during software design and development. Will ethics be thought of as a quality attribute concern? Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 41 Conclusion This presentation describes a small-scale study of emerging technologies, not a rigorous investigation. This information is intended to create awareness of technologies that are likely to affect DoD system development, deployment, and acquisition, now and in the future.

Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 42 Picture (Optional) References Reports and Studies Accenture Technology Vision 2018 Tech Trends Report, Accenture, https://www.accenture.com/t20180227T215953Z__w__/us-en/_acnmedia/Accent ure/next-gen-7/tech-vision-2018/pdf/Accenture-TechVision-2018-Tech-TrendsReport.pdf Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Research, https://www.darpa.mil/our-research Design and Acquisition of Software for Defense Systems, Defense Science Board report, http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1048883.pdf DoD Digital Engineering Strategy, https://www.acq.osd.mil/se/docs/2018DES.pdf Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2018, Gartner report, https://www.gartner.com/doc/3885468/hype-cycle-emerging-technologiesIDC FutureScape: Worldwide IT Industry 2018 Predictions, International Data Corporation (IDC) report, https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US43 171317 Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy for the United States of America, https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-NationalDefense-Strategy-Summary.pdf Tech Trends 2018 Report, Deloitte, https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/insights/us/articles/Tech-Trends2018/4109_TechTrends-2018_FINAL.pdf Ten Commandments of Software, Defense Innovation Board, https://media.defense.gov/2018/Apr/22/2001906836/-1/-1/0/DEFENSEINNOVAT IONBOARD_TEN_COMMANDMENTS_OF_SOFTWARE_2018.04.20.PDF

Technology Radar, ThoughtWorks, https://www.thoughtworks.com/radar Top 10 Emerging Technologies 2017, World Economic Council report, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Top_10_Emerging_Technologies_report_2 017.pdf Presentations and Conference Proceedings Beyond Bitcoin: What to Do with Blockchain? SATURN 2017, https://resources. sei.cmu.edu/asset_files/presentation/2017_017_001_497577.pdf Digital Thread Implementation in the Air Force: AFRLs Role, Air Force Research Laboratory presentation, https://www.nist.gov/sites/default/files/documents /2017/04/19/boden_kobryn_usaf_nist_mbe_2016_dist_a.pdf Navy Platform Digital Twin, Office of Naval Research presentation, http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/mb/2017Spring/fu.pdf Proceedings of ACM SIGPLAN Symposium on Principles of Programming Languages, https://popl18.sigplan.org/track/POPL-2018-papers Proceedings of the International Conference on Software Architecture, http://icsa-conferences.org/2018/attending/program/ Proceedings of MILCOM18, https://events.afcea.org/MILCOM18/Public/enter.aspx Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 43 Picture (Optional) References Presentations and Conference Proceedings, Continued

Proceedings of Programming Language Design and Implementation, https://pldi18.sigplan.org/track/pldi-2018-papers Proceedings of the 40th International Conference on Software Engineering, http://conferences.computer.org/icse/2018/#!/home Proceedings of the International Conference on Software Maintenance and Evolution, https://icsme2018.github.io/ Journal Articles 10 Breakthrough Technologies 2018, MIT Technology Review, https://www.technologyreview.com/lists/technologies/2018/ 5 Emerging Trends Software Developers Should Watch in 2017, Web Alive, https://www.webalive.com.au/emerging-trends-software-developers-shouldwatch-2017/ 5 Software Development Trends to Watch for in 2018, DZone, https://dzone.com/ articles/5-software-development-trends-to-watch-for-in-2018 A Cyber-skills Shortage Means Students Are Being Recruited to Fight Off Hackers, MIT Technology Review, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612309/ a-cyber-skills-shortage-means-students-are-being-recruited-to-fight-off-hackers/ AI Weekly: For Evidence of Academic Investment in AI, Look No Further than Pittsburgh, Venture Beat, https://venturebeat.com/2018/10/19/ai-weekly-forevidence-of-academic-investment-in-ai-look-no-further-than-pittsburgh/ ANSYS and Carnegie Mellon University Partner to Drive the Next Industrial Revolution in Making Physical Products, ANSYS, https://www.ansys.com/aboutansys/news-center/06-02-16-ansys-and-carnegie-mellon-university-partner Digital Twin Technology and Simulation: Benefits, Usage and Predictions 2018, i-SCOOP, https://www.i-scoop.eu/digital-twin-technology-benefits-usagepredictions/ DoD Stands Up Its Artificial Intelligence Hub, C4ISRnet, https://www.c4isrnet.com/it-networks/2018/06/29/dod-stands-up-its-artificialintelligence-hub/ Edge Computing and IoT 2018 When Intelligence Moves to the Edge, iSCOOP, https://www.i-scoop.eu/internet-of-things-guide/edge-computing-iot/ The Era of Quantum Computing Is Here. Outlook: Cloudy, Quanta Magazine, https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-era-of-quantum-computing-is-hereoutlook-cloudy-20180124/ Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), DARPA, https://www.darpa.mil/program/ explainable-artificial-intelligence From Smart Dust to Cybernetic Implants, Rambus, https://www.rambus.com/blogs/from-smart-dust-to-cybernetic-implants-2/

Gartner Says Global Artificial Intelligence Business Value to Reach $1.2 Trillion in 2018, Gartner, https://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3872933 Get Started with Quantum Development, Microsoft, https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/quantum/development-kit Glacier, https://mcoblenz.github.io/Glacier/ Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 44 Picture (Optional) References Journal Articles, Continued How a Cyber Attack Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-a-cyber-attack-could-cause-the-nextfinancial-crisis New IoT Opportunities to be Found at DoD Facilities, immixGroup, Inc., https://blog.immixgroup.com/2018/05/11/new-iot-opportunities-to-be-found-atdod-facilities/ Obsidian, https://mcoblenz.github.io/Obsidian/ How Blockchain Can Help Marketers Build Better Relationships with Their Customers, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/10/how-blockchaincan-help-marketers-build-better-relationships-with-their-customers Pentagon Sees Quantum Computing as Key Weapon for War in Space, Space News, https://spacenews.com/pentagon-sees-quantum-computing-as-keyweapon-for-war-in-space/ How Competition Is Driving AIs Rapid Adoption, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/10/how-competition-is-driving-ais-rapid-adoption

Project Maven to Deploy Computer Algorithms to War Zone by Years End, Department of Defense, https://dod.defense.gov/News/Article/Article/1254719/project-maven-to-deploycomputer-algorithms-to-war-zone-by-years-end/ Innovating with Quantum Computing, Accenture Labs, https://www.accenture.com/t00010101T000000__w__/br-pt/_acnmedia/PDF-45/ Accenture-Innovating-Quantum-Computing-Novo.pdf Is DISA Eyeing Blockchain?, C4ISRnet, https://www.c4isrnet.com/disa/2018/01/16/is-disa-eyeing-blockchain/ Serious Quantum Computers Are Finally Here. What Are We Going to Do with Them?, MIT Technology Review, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610250/serious-quantum-computers-arefinally-here-what-are-we-going-to-do-with-them/ Machine Learning-Driven Analytics: Key to Digital Transformation, MIT Technology Review, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611996/machinelearning-driven-analytics-key-to-digital-transformation/ Smart Dust Is Coming. Are You Ready? Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2018/09/16/smart-dust-is-coming-areyou-ready/#2d76ad935e41 Move Over Bitcoin. There's a New Cryptocurrency in Town, Pittsburgh PostGazette, http://www.post-gazette.com/business/tech-news/2018/05/18/bitcoincryptocurrency-blockchain-carnegie-mellon-university-cmu-param-vir-singh/ stories/201805180027 Software Development Trends in 2018 that Will Dominate 2019, Medium Corporation, https://medium.com/@Jessicawlm/software-development-trendsin-2018-that-will-dominate-2019-db1a1681c84d Navy Aims for Compile to Combat in 24 Hours, CHIPS, http://www.doncio.navy.mil/chips/ArticleDetails.aspx?ID=10501 Stop Thinking About Consent: It Isnt Possible and It Isnt Right, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/09/stop-thinking-about-consent-it-isntpossible-and-it-isnt-right

Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 45 Picture (Optional) References Journal Articles, Continued The Chairman of Nokia on Ensuring Every Employee Has a Basic Understanding of Machine LearningIncluding Him, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/10/the-chairman-of-nokia-on-ensuring-every-employee-hasa-basic-understanding-of-machine-learning-including-him Top 5 Emerging Software Testing Trends to Follow in 2018, Up Work, https://www.upwork.com/hiring/for-clients/top-5-emerging-software-testingtrends-follow-2018/ What Are Smart Contracts on Blockchain? IBM, https://www.ibm.com/blogs/blockchain/2018/07/what-are-smart-contracts-onblockchain/ What Happens When Spies Can Eavesdrop on Any Conversation?, Defense One, https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2014/12/what-happens-whenspies-can-eavesdrop-any-conversation/100142/ What We Often Get Wrong About Automation, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/10/what-we-often-get-wrong-about-automation Top 10 Technology Trends for 2018: IEEE Computer Society Predicts the Future of Tech, IEEE Computer, https://www.computer.org/web/pressroom/toptechnology-trends-2018 What You Need to Know as AI Grows at DoD, Washington Technology, https://washingtontechnology.com/articles/2018/06/29/insights-meloni-aiopportunities-trends.aspx U.S. Navy Looks to Blockchain Revolution, The Marine Executive, https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/us-navy-looks-to-blockchainrevolution#gs.iuC66IM

Why Agile Goes Awryand How to Fix It, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/10/why-agile-goes-awry-and-how-to-fix-it Upcoming IoT Regulations and Laws: How to Survive and Stay Compliant, IoT World Today, https://www.iotworldtoday.com/2017/08/21/upcoming-iotregulations-and-laws-how-survive-and-stay-compliant/ USAF Selects Lead Programs For Digital Twin Initiative, Aviation Week, http://aviationweek.com/technology/usaf-selects-lead-programs-digital-twininitiative Why Design Thinking Works, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/09/ why-design-thinking-works Why Doctors Shouldnt Dismiss the Apple Watchs New ECG App, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/10/why-doctors-shouldnt-dismiss-theapple-watchs-new-ecg-app Why SDN Is Hot at the Pentagon, Fed Tech, https://fedtechmagazine.com/article/2017/11/why-sdn-hot-pentagon Variations to Support Exploratory Programming, National Science Foundation, http://www.exploratoryprogramming.org/ Emerging Technologies for Software-Reliant Systems 2019 Carnegie Mellon University [DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A] Approved for public release and unlimited distribution. 46

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