INDONESIA MENUJU AEC 2015 DAN VISI MARITIM Faisal

INDONESIA MENUJU AEC 2015 DAN VISI MARITIM Faisal

INDONESIA MENUJU AEC 2015 DAN VISI MARITIM Faisal Basri 8 November 2014 Bagian I Regionalisme, Asean, dan Indonesia From multilateralism to regionalism? Source: WTO, World Trade Report 2011. From multilateralism to regionalism? Cumulative number of PTAs in force, 1950-2000, notified and non-notified PTAs, by country group Source: WTO, World Trade Report 2011. NAFTA Population: 445 mil. GDP: US$15.857 tril. Main Regional FTAs EU Population: 491 mil. GDP: US$ 14.38 tril. FTA Canada Chile 1997 FTA : Chile Mexico 1999 FTA : USA Chile 2004 FTA : USA Singapore 2004 FTA : USA Australia 2005 FTA : Mexico Japan 2005 FTA : Chile Brunei NZ Singapore 2006 NAFTA

U.S.A., Canada, Mexico Japan-Korea FTA EU Japan-Mexico EPA (signed agreement) expanding to Eastern Europe EU-MEXICO FTA ACP-EU ASEAN-Japan Countries in Africa and the Caribbean (approx. 70 countries) EPA (signed agreement) (by 2005) (under negotiation) 25 countries under negotiation FTAA Japan-Korea-China FTA

(under negotiation) expanding to Latin America JapanMexico CHINA Population: 1.330 bil. GDP PPP: US$ 6.991 tril. JAPAN Population: 127 mil. GDP PPP: US$ 4.29 tril. Comprehensive Economic Partnership (AJCEP) SAPTA Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka AFTA Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia MERCOSUR Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay India - ASEAN FTA

China - ASEAN FTA Australia-New Zealand-ASEAN FTA Korea - ASEAN FTA Japans Bilaterals: Japan-Singapore EPA Japan-Philippines EPA Japan-Thailand EPA Japan-Malaysia EPA Japan-Indonesia EPA ASEAN Population: 575.5 mil. GDP: US$ 3.431 bil. Asean in the global landscape: paling banyak mitranya di dunia 6 Rezim perdagangan Indonesia sudah sangat bebas Tariffrate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%) (2011 or latest data available) United States (2011) Indonesia (2011) Turkey (2011) Bolivia (2011) Qatar (2009) Malaysia (2009) China (2011) South Africa (2011) Philippines (2010) Thailand (2009) Russia (2011) Argentina (2011)

Vietnam (2010) Brazil (2011) India (2009) Venezuela (2011) 1.6 2.6 2.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.7 7.9 8.2 8.6 Aras tariff (bea masuk) Versi Kemenkeu Versi Bank Dunia 1995: 15,48% 1998: 9,24% 2007: 7,81% 2011: 7,56% 1995: 10,8% 1999: 6,1% 2007: 3,9%

2011: 2,6% World Bank: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%) World Bank: Tariff rate, applied, weighted mean, all products (%) Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) revision line data were matched to Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and import weights. To the extent possible, 3 codes to define commodity groups and import weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem equivalent rates and have specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import weights were been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade

(Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit (Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are averaged for products in each commodity group. When the product level are averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead. effectively applied rate is unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead. Indonesia: skema tarif bea masuk 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 MFN 9.9 9,9 9,5 7,8 7,6 7,5 7,49 CEPT 3.4 2,8 2,8 2,0 1,9 1,9

0 ACFTA 9.9 9,6 9,5 6,4 6,4 3,8 2,9 AKFTA 9.9 9.9 9.5 6,6 6,0 2,6 2,6 AANZ 9.9 9,9

9,5 7,8 7,6 7,5 - IJEPA 9.9 9.9 9.5 7.8 5,2 4,5 2,97 Sumber: Kemendag, 2009. Goods imported tariff rates under ACFTA Simple average, percent Country 2005 206 207 2008 2009 2010

Indonesia 9.57 9.50 6.37 6.38 3.83 2.92 12.36 12.36 8.38 8.38 5.10 2.67 Thailand Philippines China* n.a n.a n.a n.a 3.54

4.64 8.30 8.30 6.55 6.55 3.02 1.05 * Average tariff on goods imported from Indonesia. Source: The World Bank, March 2010. Bagian II Asean: Dari AFTA ke Mitra Dagang Peta 10 negara anggota Asean Source: http://www.asean-community.au.edu/ FTA: trade diversion Negara Biaya Produksi Dengan Bea Masuk 50% FTA A+B

A (Ina) 50 50 50 B (Chn) 40 60 40 C (Bra) 30 45 45 FTA: trade creation Negara Biaya Produksi Dengan Bea Masuk 100% FTA A+B A (Ina)

50 50 50 B (Chn) 40 80 40 C (Bra) 30 60 60 FTA Asean-China Normal Track (target of tariff rate = 0%) (a) Early Harvest Program (2006) (b) NT1 (2010) (c) NT2 (2012) Sensitive list (a) Tahun 2012 tarif menjadi 20% (b) Tahun 2018 tarif menjadi 0-5% Highly Sensitive list Tahun 2015 tarif menjadi 50% (untuk produk yang pada tahun 2002 tingkat tarifnya >50%) Diuntungkankah Indonesia? Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010.

Dampak dan sektor yang dirugikan Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010. Sektor-sektor yang diuntungkan No. Sektor Perubahan Output, % 1 Other Meat: pig meat and offal. preserves and preparations of meat, meat offal or blood, flours, meals and pellets of meat or inedible meat offal; greaves 7.5 2 Chemical Rubber Products: basic chemicals, other chemical products, rubber and plastics products 6.6 3 4 5 Non-Metallic Minerals: cement, plaster, lime, gravel, concrete Other Animal Products: swine, poultry and other live animals; eggs, in shell (fresh or cooked), natural honey, snails (fresh or preserved) except sea snails; frogs legs, edible products of animal origin n.e.c., hides, skins and furskins, raw , insect waxes and spermaceti, whether or not refined or coloured Milk: dairy products 3.9

3.6 3.3 6 Other Machinery & Equipment: electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c., medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks 3.3 7 Other Food: prepared and preserved fish or vegetables, fruit juices and vegetable juices, prepared and preserved fruit and nuts, all cereal flours, groats, meal and pellets of wheat, cereal groats, meal and pellets n.e.c., other cereal grain products (including corn flakes), other vegetable flours and meals, mixes and doughs for the preparation of bakers wares, starches and starch products; sugars and sugar syrups n.e.c., preparations used in animal feeding, bakery products, cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery, macaroni, noodles, couscous and similar farinaceous products, food products n.e.c. 2.5 8 Motor Vehicles: cars, lorries, trailers and semi-trailers 2.4 9 Construction: building houses factories offices and roads 2.2 10 Textiles: textiles and man-made fibres Sumber: Output GTAP

Source: Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, presentasi pada acara Diskusi Kompas, 23 Februari 2010. 1.8 Sensitive track Indonesia Sensitive List: 304 Produk (HS 6 digit), antara lain barang jadi kulit (tas, dompet); alas kaki (sepatu sport, casual, kulit); kacamata; alat musik (tiup, petik, gesek); mainan-boneka; alat olah raga; alat tulis; besi dan baja; spare part; alat angkut; glokasida dan alkaloid nabati; senyawa organik; antibiotik; kaca; barang-barang plastik. Highly Sensitive List: 47 Produk (HS 6 digit), antara lain terdiri dari produk pertanian, seperti beras, gula, jagung dan kedelai; produk industri tekstil dan produk tekstil (itpt); produk otomotif; produk ceramic tableware. Sayangnya, Indonesia satu-satunya negara Asean yang alami defisit perdagangan dgn China (Non-oil & gas trade account Indonesia-China,US$ million) Exports Imports Trade Balance % of Total Exports Imports Rank Exports Imports * January-August. Source: BPS. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* 7,787

8,920 14,073 21,596 20,864 21,282 11,293 -14,948 -13,491 -19,687 -25,456 -28,962 -29,570 -19,688 -7,161 -4,591 -5,614 -3,860 -8,098 -8,288 -8,395 7.2 9.1 10.8 13.3 13.6 14.2 11.7 15.2 17.3 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.9

22.0 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Kajian Kemenperin Growth of manufacturing industries % change, year-on-year, 2009-2011 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q22009 2010 2011 11 11 11 11 12 12 Food, beverages and tobacco 11.2 2.7 9.2 4.0 9.4 8.3 14.0 8.2 6.0

Textiles, leather and footwear 0.6 1.7 7.5 10.4 8.2 7.3 4.0 1.4 4.3 Wood and forestry products -1.4 -3.5 0.4 -0.4 3.2 0.0 -1.8 -0.9 -7.9 Paper and printing 6.3 1.6 1.5 4.2 3.9 -1.2 -1.4 0.5 -7.4 Fertilizers, chemicals&ruber products 1.6 4.7 4.0 -0.1 6.7 5.8 3.0 9.2 2.2 Cement and non-metal quarrying -0.5 2.2 7.2 4.3 5.7 8.3 10.0 6.1 7.7 Basic metals and steel -4.3 2.6 13.1 18.2 15.5 11.4 9.3 5.6 1.9 Vehicles, machinery and equipments -2.9 10.4 7.0 8.8 4.5 7.8 6.6 6.2 11.7 NON-OIL & GAS MFG INDUSTRIES 2.6 5.1 6.8 5.8 6.7 7.0 7.4 6.1 6.0 TOTAL MFG INDUSTRIES 2.2 4.5 6.2 5.0 6.2 6.6 6.7 5.7 5.4 GDP Source: BPS.

6.5 6.3 6.4 Bagian III MEA 2015: Menuju Integrasi a la EC? Asean Economic Community Menuju integrasi total ikuti jejak Euro Zone? Sejarahnya berbeda, setidaknya masih jauh. Sistem politiknya juga berbeda. Perdagangan bebas dalam skema AFTA sejak 2002 sudah nyarus tuntas. Perluasan cakupan ke sektor jasa dan investasi Sharing prosperity. MEA ditopang oleh proyek konektivitas (connectivity) Peran mitra dekat Asean East Asia Economic Community: Asean+3 (China, Korea, Japan) Perdagangan intra-Asean sangat dan tetap kecil Intra-Asean Trade Value (US$ billion) Percent of total 2004 260,9 24,3 2011 598,2

25,0 2013 608,6 24,2 Intra-EU Trade (EU-25) 2004: 67.6 percent Intra-NAFTA Trade 2004: 55.9 percent Perdagangan Intra-Asean dan mitra utama Trading Bloc (2013, in US$) Total trade between the Asociation of Southeast Asian Nations and 10 biggest partners = US$1,358 Source: asean.org Intra- and extra-Asean trade (2013, %) Imports Exports Total trade Intra-Asean Extra-Asean Intra-Asean Extra-Asean Intra-Asean Extra-Asean Brunei D 23.1 76.9 51.0

49.0 29.8 70.2 Cambodia 14.2 85.8 30.7 69.3 22.5 77.5 Indonesia 22.3 77.7 29.0 71.0 25.6 74.4 Lao PDR 47.6

52.4 75.8 24.2 63.4 36.6 Malaysia 28.1 71.9 26.7 73.3 27.4 72.6 Myanmar 49.2 50.8 35.3 64.7 42.1 57.9 Philippines

16.0 84.0 21.8 78.2 19.1 80.9 Singapore 31.4 68.6 20.9 79.1 26.4 73.6 Thailand 25.9 74.1 17.8 82.2 21.7

78.3 Vietnam 13.7 86.3 16.2 83.8 14.9 85.1 ASEAN 26.0 74.0 22.4 77.6 24.2 75.8 Source: Asean Secretariat. Direction of non-oil exports (f.o.b.,%) Asean Singapore Malaysia Thailand Others European Union

Germany France United Kingdom Other 2008 2009 2010 2011 21.8 9.4 5.5 3.0 3.9 14.2 2.3 0.9 1.4 9.6 21.0 8.1 5.8 2.7 4.4 13.9 2.4 0.9 1.5 9.2 20.8 7.4 6.0 3.1 4.3 13.2 2.3 0.9 1.3 8.7

19.9 6.9 5.7 3.2 4.1 12.6 2.0 0.8 1.1 8.7 Other Major Countries China Japan United States India Australia Korea Taiwan 40.6 7.2 12.8 11.6 2.0 4.3 2.7 42.2 9.1 12.3 10.7 1.8 5.3 3.0 43.5 10.8 12.7

10.3 7.6 1.8 5.3 2.5 51.7 13.3 11.3 9.7 8.2 1.9 4.7 2.6 Others 23.4 22.9 22.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total * January-August. Source: BPS. 2012 20.4 6.9 5.5 3.6

4.4 11.7 2.0 0.7 1.1 7.9 2013 2014* 20.1 6.9 4.8 3.5 4.8 11.1 1.9 0.7 1.1 7.4 19.8 7.0 4.4 3.5 4.8 11.7 2.0 0.7 1.2 7.9 51.8 13.6 11.2 9.5 8.1 2.2 4.4 2.7

51.2 14.2 10.7 10.1 8.7 2.0 4.0 2.5 49.7 11.7 9.8 10.8 8.2 2.6 3.8 2.8 15.8 16.1 17.6 18.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Asean diapit oleh negara-negara besar Source: http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2012/11/09/china-to-join-rcep-creating-massivefree-trade-area-with-asean-india-and-japan.html Asean Economic Community bukan integrasi

Jika MEA diterapkan secara konsisten seperti EU, maka free movements of factors of production meliputi: tenaga kerja (free labor area), modal (free capital area), pengusaha (free entrepreneur area), dan tanah (free ownership of lands) Seribu satu masalah muncul. Kalaupun hendak diterapkan akan mengalami berbagai tahapan. Asean tidak menuju pada integrasi ekonomi (economic integration = harmonisasi kebijakan ekonomiyang EU pun belum sepenuhnya), apalagi total integration. Connectivity berbeda dengan integrasi. Pemilihan istilah connectivity merupakan bahasa halus bahwa Asean tidak dirancang untuk berintegrasi. Connectivity Physical connectivity Transport Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Energy Institutional connectivity Trade liberalisation and facilitation Investment and services liberalisation and facilitation Mutual recognition agreements/arrangements Regional transport agreements Cross-border procedures Capacity building programmes People-to-people connectivity Education and Culture Tourism

Interaction Asean connectivity - Asean Community Bagian IV Jadi, MEA Targetnya Apa? Pasar Asean cukup menggiurkan Meningkatkan daya tarik investasi asing karena pasar yang cukup besar (economies of scale sekawasan) bangun pabrik di satu lokasi dijual ke seluruh Asean. Asean GDP, PPP (Billions of international dollars, 2013) Indonesia 2.388 Thailand 964 Malaysia 692 Philippines 643 Vietnam 475 Singapore 425 Cambodia 46

Lao PDR 33 Brunei Darussalam 30 Indonesia is the worlds 10 largest producer of goods and services (Purchasing power parity (PPP), billions of international dollars, 2013) United States 16.800 China 16.158 India 6.774 Asean* 5.696 Japan 4.624 Germany 3.493 Russian Federation 3.461

Brazil 3.012 France 2.437 Indonesia 2.388 United Kingdom 2.320 * Asean minus Myanmar Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Asean masuk kategori tersendiri di IMF Asean GDP per capita: current US$ and purchasing power parity (PPP) US$, 2013 78.744 Singapore 55.182 71.759 Brunei Darussalam 38.563 23.298 Malaysia

10.514 14.390 Thailand 5.779 9.559 Indonesia 3.475 6.533 2.765 Philippines Vietnam 5.293 1.911 Lao PDR 4.812 1.646 3.042 1.008 Cambodia 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 PPP Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators

40.000 50.000 Current US$ 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 More FDI from intra-Asean as well as the World Asean Inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Flows, US$ million, 2000 and 2011 Source: Asean Secretariat, ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System Full Report 2012, Jakarta, September 2013, p. 52. Rata-rata 4 negara Asean selalu masuk 10 besar FDI Jepang selama 1997-2013 Promising countries for overseas business operation by Japanese manufacturing companies over the medium term (next 3 years or so): China is no longer the most promising destination Rank 1997 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1st China China China China China China China China China China China Indonesia 2nd USA

Thailand Thailand India India India India India India India India India 3rd Indonesia USA India Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam

Vietnam Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Thailand 4th Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Viet nam Thailand Thailand Russia Thailand Thailand Vietnam Thailand China 5th India

India USA USA USA Russia Thailand Russia Brazil Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam 6th Vetnam Indonesia Russia Russia Russia USA Brazil

Brazil Indonesia Brazil Brazil Brazil 7th Philippines Korea Indonesia Korea Brazil Brazil USA USA Russia Russia Mexico Mexico 8th Malaysia

Taiwan Korea Indonesia Korea Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia USA USA Russia Myanmar 9th Brazil Malaysia Taiwan Brazil Indonesia Korea Korea

Korea Korea Malaysia Myanmar Russia 10th Taiwan Russia Malaysia Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan Malaysia Malaysia Taiwan USA USA Source: Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Survey Report on Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing Companies, various issues.

Singapore dan Indonesia masuk Top 20 host economies untuk FDI 2013, Billions of US dollars 1. United States 2. China 3. Russian Federation 4. Hong Kong, China 5.Brazil 6.Singapore 7. Canada 8. Australia 9. Spain 10. Mexico 11. United Kingdom 12. Ireland 13. Luxerbourg 14. India 15. Germany 16. Netherlands 17. Chile 18. Indonesia 19. Colombia 20. Italy 188 124 79 77 64 64 62 50 39 38 37 36 30 28 27

24 20 18 17 17 Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page xv. Developed economies Developing economies 5 negara Asean masuk TNCs top prospective host economies for 2014-16 Developing economies Developing economies Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2014, page 28. The Economist: 4 negara Asean mendominasi investment destination in Asia (2013) 73,8 China India 54,1 Indonesia 53,5 Thailand 38,6 Vietnam

37,7 5,0 32,0 13,9 27,1 43,0 Malaysia 0,7 20,6 18,6 38,5 33,9 32,8 16,3 25,2 26,2 Increase investment Still in the market, but will not invest more Have no plan to invest Reduce investment

Source: The Economist, Asia Economic Outlook Survey 2013. 0,8 2,2 2,4 3,3 Rangkuman AEC meningkatkan daya saing Asean secara kesatuan sebagai destinasi investasi dari berbagai negara. Investor asing tak perlu lagi membangun fasilitas produksi di setiap negara Asean. Pembagian kerja semakin tajam dalam kerangka regional production network. Indonesia mau dapat apa? Harapannya sebanyak mungkin karena memiliki pasar yang paling besar. Persaingan terjadi bukan di antara perusahaan di Asean, melainkan persaingan antarnegara. Negara yang berhasil menawarkan fixed cost paling rendah berpeluang dapat lebih banyak. Variable cost semakin kurang menentukan. Tidak hanya sebagai regional production base, tetapi juga global production base. Ilustrasi teoretis Rp ATCI PI* ATCM PM high cost

PI PFTA XM 0 QM QI QFTA Quantity Indonesia merupakan pasar terbesar kedua di dunia untuk Blackberry. Tetapi Blackberry diputuskan diprodukdi di Malaysia. Sumber informasi dan statistik Asean Asean Community Pregress Monitoring System 2012: http://www.bps.go.id/downloa d_file/Asean.pdf Asean Secretariat: http://www.asean.org/asean/a sean-secretariat Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS): http://www.iseas.edu.sg/ Asean Economic Community

Blueprint: http://www.asean.org/archive/ 5187-10.pdf Bagian V MEA dan Visi Maritim Kita Keunikan Indonesia Simbolisme kembali ke jati diri: negara maritim KOMPAS.COM/RODERICK ADRIAN MOZES Kompas.com/Fabian Januardo Kuwado Dua tonggak kejayaan Nusantara: Kerajaan Sriwijaya dan Kerajaan Majapahit Kejayaan Sriwijaya pada abad ke-9 ditandai dengan kekuasaannya hingga ke Jawa, Kalimantan, dan Semenanjung Malaya. Selain itu, Kerajaan Sriwijaya menguasai jalur perdagangan di Asia Tenggara dan memiliki pengaruh kuat di jalur perdagangan antara China dan India. Tanpa kekuatan armada laut yang tangguh, niscaya pengaruh Sriwijaya tidak akan diperhitungkan di kawasan Asia. Ketangguhan armada laut pula yang mewarnai kejayaan Majapahit pada abad ke-14. Majapahit mampu menguasai seantero Nusantara, Semenanjung Malaya, dan armada lautnya menjelajah hingga ke Laut China Selatan. Srikandi penjelajah samudera Laksamana Keumalahayati Hidup sekitar abad XV dan awal abad XVI. Sumber lain: 15851604. Laksamana perempuan pertama di dunia.

Ayah dan kakeknya juga laksamana di kesultanan Aceh Dengan gemilang bertempur melawan Portugis dan Belanda. Pada 1599 komandan kapal Belanda, Cornelis de Houtman, tewas dalam pertempuran yang dipimpin Laksamana Malahayati. Jati diri sebagai negara maritim Indonesia merupakan negara lautan yang dihiasi sekitar 17.508 pulau yang membentuk untaian zamrud khatulistiwa. Gugusan pulau (archipelago): perairan laut yang bertaburan pulau, bukan pulau-pulau yang dikelilingi laut. Wilayah Tanah Air Indonesia seluas 5,2 juta km2, dua pertiganya berupa lautan yang mempersatukan gugusan kepulauan Nusantara, bukan memisahkan dan menjadikannya berjauhan satu sama lain. Indonesia merupakan negara kepulauan paling besar di dunia. Deklarasi Djuanda 13 Desember 1957 pun menyatakan Indonesia sebagai negara kepulauan. Indonesia sebagai negara maritim dengan garis pantai 95.181 km, terpanjang ke-4 di dunia. Kesadaran itu sudah lama kokoh di bumi Pertiwi. Bangsa kita menggunakan istilah tanah air untuk tumpah darahnya, bukan padanan dari motherland atau homeland. Dikumandangkan lewat lagu Dari Barat Sampai ke Timur Dari Barat sampai ke Timur Berjajar pulau-pulau Sambung-menyambung menjadi satu Itulah Indonesia .. --Wage Rudolf Supratman Lautlah yang mempersambungkan 17.508 pulau itu, bukan jembatan. Tuhan mengaruniai kita jalan bebas hambatan tak berbayar, tidak perlu diaspal, tidak perlu tiang

pancang, dan tidak membutuhkan pembebasan tanah. Negara maritim the archipelago economy Untuk membangun Indonesia menjadi negara besar, negara kuat, negara makmur, negara damai yang merupakan National Building bagi negara Indonesia, maka negara dapat menjadi kuat jika dapat menguasai lautan. Untuk menguasai lautan kita harus menguasai armada yang seimbang. (Ir. Soekarno dalam National Maritime Convention I (NMC), 1963) Mengintegrasikan perekonomian domestik: memperkecil TIGA DISPARITAS Source: R.J. Linos presentatatiom, March 2011. 1. Disparitas harga produsen dan konsumen Di Jakarta, harga duku Pontianak di salah satu supermarket pada 8 September 2014 Rp 28.900/kg Di Pontianak: Minggu pertama September 6 kg Rp 20.000 = Rp 3.333/kg Minggu kedua 4 kg Rp 20.000 = Rp 5.000/kg Harga di Jakarta 5,8-8,7 kali lipat harga di

Pontianak. Price disparities (Rupiah) Region Rice Wheat flour Sugar Cooking oil Salt East Jawa 4,250 3,606 6,000 4,150 1,600 West Kalimantan 4,400 4,000 5,800 4,500 2,450 East Kalimantan 4,500 4,000 6,500

4,500 2,000 South Sulawesi East Nusa Tenggara 4,400 3,500 6,500 4,500 2,000 4,200 4,500 5,800 6,300 2,000 Merauke 5,000 7,000 7,000 6,670 3,000

Nabire 6,000 10,000 11,000 11,000 4,000 Paniai 18,000 7,000 8,000 Source: Ministry of Trade. 7,500 8,000 2. Disparitas harga lokal dan impor Survei Bank Dunia (pra-regulasi impor holtikultura) Harga di supermarket Jakarta Jeruk Tiongkok Rp 17.000 per kg Jeruk Medan Rp 20.000 per kg Observasi terbaru di 2 supermarket (Rp per kg) 22 Februari 2004 22 Februari 2004 Rp 32.900 26 April 2004

Rp 19.900 Rp 34.900 Rp 35.500 Rp 37.000 Rp 46.900 3. Disparitas ongkos angkut ekspor dan impor Source: Asean Secretariat, ASEAN Community Progress Monitoring System Full Report 2012, Jakarta, September 2013, p. 43. This explains why oranges from Medan are more expensive to some extent. Jeruk impor diangkut kapal berpengatur suhu, kapasitas ribuan kali lipat truk, bebas hambatan Source: R.J. Linos presentatatiom, March 2011. Fakta lain yang membuat miris Container Shipment cost: Padang Jakarta = US$600 Jakarta Singapore = US$185 Cement in Papua is 20 times more expensive than in Jakarta because of shipping costs Source: R.J. Linos presentatatiom, March 2011. Potensi kekayaan laut Bumi Indonesia di bawah laut mengandung minyak bumi dan gas alam Perairan ZEE berpotensi menghasilkan 6,7 juta ton ikan per tahun, belum lagi laut nasional seluas 75% dari

seluruh permukaan wilayah nasional sumber protein sehat (ironi daging sapi) Setiap satu kilometer kubik air laut mengandung: Oksigen (O) dan Hidrogen (H) 35 juta ton garam, 66.000 ton bromium, 200 ton litium, 50 ton yodium, dan 1 ton titanium, uranium, perak, dan emas Di dasar laut: bungkalan-bungkalan sebesar kentang yang mengandung mangan, besi, nikel, tembaga, kobalt, titanium, dan vanadium. Sumber: Daoed Joesoef, Jalesveva Jayamahe, Tinjauan Pembangunan Maritim Indonesia, Edisi II Tahun 2013: Menggapai Negara Maritim, hal. 6-7. Sealanes of communication Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_America Mengelola kekayaan laut A democratic power is never likely to perish for lack of strength or of its resources, but it may very well fall because of the misdirection of its strength and the abuse of its resources. Alexis de Tocqueville Politik pertahanan: bangun angkatan laut yang kokoh untuk melindungi tumpah darah Indonesia. Orientasi ke laut sejalan dengan budaya ourward looking sejak nenek moyang kita. Ancaman berasal dari luar [Orientasi darat dengan dominasi angkatan darat membuat kita inward looking, cenderung memosisikan ancaman berasal dari dalam Kegiatan transportasi laut global/internasional pada awal abad ke-21 Global Sekitar 90% perdagangan dunia diangkut berbagai sarana

transportasi laut. Dewasa ini kegitan global tersebut melibatkan sekitar 60.000 kapal dan 1 juta ABK Internasional Sekitar 40% transportasi laut yang melibatkan perekonomian banyak negara dalam kegiatan perdagangan internasional harus melalui 4 SLOC (Sealanes of Communication) di wilayah Asia Tenggara Regional Sekitar 3.000 kapal berbagai ukuran dan jenis harus menggunakan SLOC Selat Malaka setiap harinya Sekitar 1.000 tankers, LNG trains, bulk carriers setiap tahun harus menggunakan 4 SLOC itu. Sumber: Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Bagaimana Memposisikan Wilayah Maritim NKRI dalam Konteks Geostrategi Abad ke-21? Tinjauan Pembangunan Maritim Indonesia, Edisi II Tahun 2013: Menggapai Negara Maritim, hal. 71. Menunggu otoritas pengawal laut dan pantai Selama ini yang sudah ada adalah Kesatuan Penjaga Laut dan Pantai RI (Indonesia Sea and Coast Guard) di bawah Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Laut, Kementerian Perhubungan tidak sesuai dengan yang diemban sebagai otoritas Negara Pantai atau Coastal State. Karena Ditjen Perhubungan Laut merupakan representasi Indonesia di IMO (International Maritime Organization) di bawah PBB, maka dunia internasional tahunya KPLP adalah coast guard Indonesia. Sedang KPLP di bawah dirjen tidak sesuai sbg Otoritas Negara Pantai yang harus dibentuk berdasar undang-undang dan harus di bawah Presiden sebagai sebuah sistem pemerintahan Negara di laut. Logistics performance index, 2014, n=160 Country LPI LPI Infra- International Logistic Tracking & Timerank score Customs structure shipments competence tracing lines

Singapore 5 4.00 4.01 4.28 3.70 3.97 3.90 4.25 Hong Kong 15 3.83 3.72 3.97 3.58 3.81 3.87 4.00 Malaysia 25

3.59 3.37 3.56 3.64 3.47 3.58 3.92 China 28 3.53 3.21 3.67 3.50 3.46 3.50 3.87 Thailand 35 3.43

3.21 3.40 3.30 3.29 3.45 3.96 Vietnam 48 3.15 2.81 3.11 3.22 3.09 3.19 3.49 Indonesia 53 3.08 2.87 2.92

2.87 3.21 3.11 3.53 India 54 3.08 2.72 2.88 3.20 3.03 3.11 3.51 Philippines 57 3.00 3.00 2.60 3.33

2.93 3.00 3.07 Cambodia 83 2.74 2.67 2.58 2.83 2.67 2.92 2.75 Lao, PDR 131 2.39 2.45 2.21 2.50 2.31 2.20

2.65 Myanmar 145 2.25 1.97 2.14 2.14 2.07 2.36 2.83 Source: World Bank, Logistics Performance Index: LPI Results 2014 (http://lpisurvey.worldbank.org/) Score Rank LPI Indonesia, 2007-2014 Source: World Bank, Logistics Performance Index: LPI Results 2014 (http://lpisurvey.worldbank.org/) Public and customers perception improved Source: JR Lino presentation (IPC) based on World Bank, January 2013. The sea unites Indonesia But. the solution is this!!!

Wujud bersyukur adalah dengan kembali ke jati diri, laut sejahterakan rakyatnya Maka nimat Tuhan kamu yang manakah yang kamu dustakan? (Al-Quran, Surat Ar-Rahman 55: 13, 16, 21, 23, 25, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 45, 47, 51, 53, 55, 57, 59, 61, 63, 65, 67, 69, 71, 73, 75, 77) Bagian VI Potret Pendidikan Indonesia Sesat pikir luar biasa Nyata-nyata bertentangan dengan Undang-Undang No.20/2003 Pasal 4 ayat 1: Perlakuan diskriminatif antara sekolah/guru negeri. Harusnya pendekatan fungsi, bukan status. Dikerangkeng oleh birokrasi pendidikan dan pengkotakkotakan: guru matematika di madrasah dibina oleh Kemenag, di pendidikan umum oleh Kemendikbud. Kurang guru tapi IKIP dikerdilkan Pendekatan input, bukannya output Kerap jalan pintas Menyamakan guru dan dosen: kementerian Pendidikan Dasar-Menengah dan Kementerian Pendidikan Tinggi dan Ristek Pendekatan output ketimbang input Pemerintah tidak pernah berani menetapkan output yang terukur. UU hanya mencantumkan tujuan yang bersifat normatif. Output = f (Family, Teachers, School inputs, Peers, Innate ability) Output: Math, Science, Reading, Problem solving Knowledge & skills performance of the worlds 15-year-olds students based on PISA surveys 2012

Rank Mathematics Reading Science Country/Economy 2009 2012 2009 2012 2009 2012 1 Shanghai-China 600 613 556 570 575 580 2

Singapore 562 573 526 542 542 551 3 Hong Kong-China 555 561 533 545 549 555 4 Chinese Taipei 543 560

495 523 520 523 5 Korea 546 554 539 536 538 538 7 Japan 529 536 520 538 539 547

17 Viet Nam n.a. 511 n.a. 508 n.a. 528 50 Thailand 419 427 421 441 425 444 52 Malaysia n.a.

421 n.a. 441 n.a. 420 64 Indonesia 371 375 402 396 383 382 65 Peru 365 368 370 384 369

373 (n=65) Source: OECD, PISA (The Programme for International Student Assessment) database. Indonesia: deceleration in mathematics performance Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on mean mathematics performance in PISA 2003 through 2012 Coef. Hong Kong-China Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Macao-China Malaysia Montenegro Peru Qatar Romania Russian Federation Serbia Shanghai-China Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand Tunisia United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai Uruguay Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - OECD 2013 0,3 -0,7 -0,2

m 0,1 0,3 0,7 0,4 m 0,2 m -2,3 0,3 0,1 0,0 m m 1,3 0,2 0,3 m -0,6 S.E. (0,21) (0,26) (0,51) m (0,20) (0,25) (0,37) (0,14) m (0,31) m (0,21) (0,54) (0,23) (0,45) m m (0,52)

(0,17) (0,20) m (0,18) Indonesia: deceleration in reading performance Rate of acceleration or deceleration in performance (quadratic term) on mean reading performance in PISA 2003 through 2012 Hong Kong-China Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Macao-China Malaysia Montenegro Peru Qatar Romania Russian Federation Serbia Shanghai-China Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand Tunisia United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai Uruguay Coef. 0,1 -0,4 -0,6 m -0,4

-0,4 0,6 0,8 m -0,1 0,0 -2,4 1,2 0,8 -2,0 m m 1,6 0,7 -0,1 m 0,2 Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - OECD 2013 S.E. (0,19) (0,25) (0,65) m (0,18) (0,18) (0,55) (0,23) m (0,51) (0,31) (0,47) (0,28) (0,19) (0,59) m m (0,60)

(0,20) (0,30) m (0,28) Indonesia: juga kemunduran dalam science Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012 Change between 2006 and 2012 (PISA 2012 - PISA 2006) Hong Kong-China Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Macao-China Malaysia Montenegro Peru Qatar Romania Russian Federation Serbia Shanghai-China Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand Tunisia United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai Uruguay Score dif. 13 -12 -13

m 13 3 8 10 m -2 m 34 20 7 9 m m -9 23 13 m -12 Change between 2009 and 2012 (PISA 2012 - PISA 2009) S.E. Score dif. (5,0) 6 (7,7) -1 (5,5) -6 m 24 (5,4) 8 (6,5) 5

(5,1) 4 (3,8) 10 m -3 (3,8) 9 m 4 (3,7) 4 (6,4) 11 (5,8) 8 (5,8) 2 m 6 m 10 (5,5) 3 (5,1) 19 (5,7) -3 m (5,2) 10 -11 Annualised change in science across PISA assessments S.E.

(4,3) (5,7) (5,1) (4,8) (4,6) (5,3) (4,4) (2,4) (4,5) (3,0) (5,4) (2,3) (5,1) (4,8) (4,6) (4,3) (2,9) (4,0) (4,6) (4,8) Annual change 2,1 -1,9 -2,1 8,1 2,0 0,4 1,3 1,6 -1,4 -0,3 1,3 5,4 3,4 1,0 1,5 1,8

3,3 -1,5 3,9 2,2 S.E. (0,85) (1,33) (0,91) (1,56) (0,90) (1,03) (0,94) (0,64) (1,96) (0,64) (1,94) (0,61) (1,08) (1,00) (1,03) (1,50) (0,93) (0,92) (0,82) (1,03) (5,4) (4,3) 5,1 -2,1 (2,75) (0,91) Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - OECD 2013 Indonesia: juga mengalami kemunduran

dalam science Mean science performance in PISA 2006 through 2012 OECD average 2006 OECD average 2009 Hong Kong-China Indonesia Jordan Kazakhstan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Macao-China Malaysia Montenegro Peru Qatar Romania Russian Federation Shanghai-China Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand Tunisia United Arab Emirates - Ex. Dubai Uruguay PISA 2006 Mean score S.E. 498 (0,5) m m 542 (2,5) 393 (5,7)

422 (2,8) m m 490 (3,0) 522 (4,1) 488 (2,8) 511 (1,1) m m 412 (1,1) m m 349 (0,9) 418 (4,2) 479 (3,7) m m m m 532 (3,6) 421 (2,1) 386 (3,0) m m 428 (2,7)

PISA 2009 Mean score S.E. 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5) 549 (2,8) 383 (3,8) 415 (3,5) 400 (3,1) 494 (3,1) 520 (3,4) 491 (2,9) 511 (1,0) 422 (2,7) 401 (2,0) 369 (3,5) 379 (0,9) 428 (3,4) 478 (3,3) 575 (2,3) 542

(1,4) 520 (2,6) 425 (3,0) 401 (2,7) 429 (3,3) 427 (2,6) Source: OECD, PISA 2012 Results: What Students Know and Can Do (Volume I) - OECD 2013 PISA 2012 Mean score S.E. 501 (0,5) 501 (0,5) 555 (2,6) 382 (3,8) 409 (3,1) 425 (3,0) 502 (2,8) 525 (3,5) 496 (2,6) 521 (0,8) 420

(3,0) 410 (1,1) 373 (3,6) 384 (0,7) 439 (3,3) 486 (2,9) 580 (3,0) 551 (1,5) 523 (2,3) 444 (2,9) 398 (3,5) 439 (3,8) 416 (2,8) Teachers salaries and mathematics performance Source: OECD, PISA Results in Focus: What 15-year-olds know and what they can do with what they know, Paris, 2013: 27. Masa depan makin suram Masa depan kemajuan bangsa ditentukan oleh kemajuan teknologi Bukan sekedar teknologi, melainkan teknologi masa depan Teknologi masa depan: Nanotechnology Biotechnology ICT

Green technology R&D expenditure (% of GDP) Source: World Bank R&D as a percentage of gross domestic product Source: Battelle, 2014 Global R&D Funding Forecast, December 2013: 6. Switzerland (1) Sweden (2) Singapore (3) Finland (4) UK (5) Netherlands (6) Denmark (7) Hong Kong (8) Ireland (9) USA (10) Norway (14) Germany (15) Israel (17) Korea (21) Japan (25) Malaysia (32) China (34) UAE (37) Bahrain (41) Oman (47) Saudi Arabia (48) Russian Federation Brunei Darussalam South Africa (54) Thailand (57) Brazil (58) India (64) Viet Nam (76)

Philippines (95) Indonesia (100) Sudan (141) 16.8 68.2 64.8 63.5 61.8 61.2 60.5 59.9 58.7 58.7 57.7 56.4 56.2 56.0 53.9 51.7 45.9 45.4 44.4 41.1 39.5 39.3 37.9 37.7 37.4 36.9 36.6 35.7 33.9 29.0 28.1 Global innovation index 2012 (n=141) Source: INSEAD, The Global Innovation Index 2012.

Patent applications as % of Chinas owned (2012 = 535,313), Indonesia (2011) = 541 (0.13) Patent applications, residents Patent applications are worldwide patent applications filed through the Patent Cooperation Treaty procedure or with a national patent office for exclusive rights for an invention--a product or process that provides a new way of doing something or offers a new technical solution to a problem. A patent provides protection for the invention to the owner of the patent for a limited period, generally 20 years. 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 India 2006 2007 Malaysia Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. 2008 Singapore 2009

2010 Thailand 2011 Indonesia 2012 H index, 1996-2012 ( ) Rank Source: http://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php?area=0&category=0®ion=all&year=all&order=it&min=0&min_type=it Terima Kasih Email: [email protected] Twitter: @faisalbasri Blog: kompasiana.com/faisalbasri Blog: faisalbasri01.wordpress.com

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