What is the impact of intra-EU migration? Are Changes to Free Movement Rules Needed? WEDNESDAY 9 SEPTEMBER 2015 Wifi Account details Password - Chair Cllr Peter Robinson Lincolnshire County Council Chair of the East Midlands Strategic Migration Partnership Other Forms of Migration Outside of the scope of the event Asylum Seeker An asylum seeker is someone who has fled persecution in their country of origin, has arrived in another country, made themselves known to the authorities and exercised their right to apply for asylum. Refugee
A refugee is someone whose asylum application has been successful and who is allowed to stay in another country. Failed asylum seeker A failed asylum seeker is someone whose asylum application has been turned down and is awaiting return to their country of origin. If it is not safe for refused asylum seekers to return, they may have to stay for the time being. Illegal Immigrant An illegal immigrant is someone who has arrived in another country and has no legal basis for being there. Intra-EU Migration Austria Italy Belgium
Latvia Bulgaria Lithuania Cyprus Luxembourg Croatia Malta Czech Netherlands
Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden
United Kingdom Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Free Movement Four basic freedoms in the single market: Goods Services Capital
People The free movement of persons means EU citizens can move freely between member states to live, work, study or retire in another country. Other Forms of Migration Outside of the scope of the event Asylum seeker An asylum seeker is someone who has fled persecution in their country of origin, has arrived in another country, made themselves known to the authorities and exercised their right to apply for asylum. Refugee A refugee is someone whose asylum application has been successful and who is allowed to stay in another country. Failed asylum seeker A failed asylum seeker is someone whose asylum application has been turned down and is awaiting return to their country of origin. If it is not safe for refused asylum seekers to return, they may have to stay for the
time being. Illegal immigrant An illegal immigrant is someone who has arrived in another county and has no legal basis for being there. The scale and impact of EU and non-EU migration to the UK and East Midlands 9th September, 2015 Chris Lawton Division of Economics Nottingham Business School Introduction ONS migration statistics published on the 27th August indicate a record level of net migration to the UK Media focus on refugee crisis: Calais; the fatalities in the Mediterranean; and cross-EU movements (e.g. Budapest to Munich) - but asylum applications to UK well below 2002 peak Refugees/asylum seekers make up a small minority of current immigration inflows and total UK net migration Legal precedents, service impacts and economic impacts differ for EU migrants and non-EU economic migrants compared to refugees/asylum seekers
Definitions Migration: the net balance of immigration less emigration A migrant is (UN definition): a person who moves to a country other than his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year. Includes: EU migrants: nationals of an EU Member State are EU citizens and thus have the right of Free Movement within the EU to work, study or retire. Also covers nationals of non-EU member EEA countries (Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) and Swiss nationals Non-EU migrants: require visas/work permits, allocated on a skill Points Based System (PBS) Tier 1 (high value); Tier 2 (skilled workers with a job offer); Tier 4 (students). Tier 3 (unskilled) entry routes are not open Family members: spouse/children of an EU/EEA citizen who are nationals of a 3rd country or spouse/children of principal visa applicant Asylum granted to those applicants who meet the criteria for refugee status in the view of the UK Government (+ other forms of protection) Illegal immigrants: illegal migrants will all be from non-EU countries. May subsequently claim asylum. A very small minority of migrants Latest Migration Estimates Net long term international migration (LTIM) to the UK was 330,000 in the 12 months to March 2015. This is a result of: Immigration: + 636,000 Emigration: - 307,000 Of total immigration:
Number and % from the EU: 269,000; 42.3% Number and % non-EU: 284,000; 44.7% A total of 11,600 were granted asylum or alternate form of protection in the 12 months to June 2015, approximately 4% of total net migration (and 2% of immigration) Total net LTIM for 2015 is 0.5% of the UK population of 65 million Net migration contributed 53% of total UK population growth between mid-2013 and mid-2014 (compared to natural change) Net Migration to the UK Long Term International Migration (LTIM) Thousands ('000s) 800 Highest on record 600 400 200 Ma r... YE p
14 Jun YE Ma r... YE YE Ju n 13 3 Ma r1 YE 12 YE YE Jun 2 Ma
r1 11 YE Ju n 10 YE Ju n 09 YE Ju n 08 YE Ju n 07 Jun J un 06
YE 200 YE YE J un 05 0~ 400 600 Emigration Immigration Net Migration Source: Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. Long Term International Migration year ending June/March, from Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, August 2015, 27th August, 2015. p Estimates for March 2014 to March 2015 are provisional.
Net LTIM by Citizenship + 400 + 350 + 300 Highest on record + 250 + 200 + 150 + 100 + 50 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13
Mar 14p Jun 14p Sep 14p Dec 14p Mar 15p - 50 - 100 Total British EU Total EU15 EU8 Non-EU Source: Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. Long Term International Net Migration by Citizenship, from Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, August 2015, 27th August, 2015. p
Estimates for March 2014 to March 2015 are provisional. Share of EU Immigration by Citizenship IPS data allows a more detailed breakdown of EU immigration by citizenship in March 2015: Bulgaria and Romania (EU2): 53,000 (up 25,000 from March 2014) (transitional controls lifted on 1.1.14) EU8: 72,000 (up 12,000) EU15: 116,000 (up 10,000) Proportion of total EU immigration to the UK: EU2: 22% (up from 14% in 2014) EU8: 30% (down from 31%) EU15: 48% (down from 55%) + 350 Reasons for Migration (Net LTIM) + 300 + 250 + 200 + 150
+ 100 All Reasons All Work-Related Definite Job Looking for Work Accompany/Join Family ... ar M YE c .. . De YE Se p.. . YE
Jun ... YE YE M ar ... ... De YE 13 YE Se p Jun 13 YE a .. .
M YE ... De YE 12 Se p Jun 12 YE - 50 YE YE M a .. . + 50
Formal Study Other Source: Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. Long Term International Net Migration by Main Reason for Migration, from Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, August 2015 27th August, 2015. p Estimates for March 2014 to March 2015 are provisional. Citizenship of National Insurance Number registrations (and PAYE) Top 5 EU nationalities for NINO registrations in the year to June 2015 were: Romanian Polish Italian
Spanish Bulgarian Top 5 non-EU nationalities were: Indian Pakistani Chinese Australian Nigerian Employment Rates 100 90 % in employment, aged 16-64 80 70
60 50 40 ta To l UK U no N K l ta To EU 15 EU 8
EU 2 EU l ta To E nno U a ric Af cl . ex SA h ut So st Au April-June 2013
ra Af li a a ric d an w Ne Z l ea d an a di In an i st
k Pa d an Ba ng s de la h US A Re s ft to he
W ld or April-June 2015 Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. Table 8: Employment levels and rates by country of birth and nationality from Labour Market Statistics, August 2015, 12th August, 2015. Numbers in Employment 2,500 People in Employment (Thousands) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 9 1 c 19 19 c 19 19 c 19 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20 c 20 20
n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju De - Ju r t r t r t r t r t r t r t r t
r t r t r t r t r t r t r t r t r t r t r Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Oc Ap Total EU nationals Total non-EU nationals Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. Table 8: Employment levels and rates by country of birth and nationality from Labour Market Statistics, August 2015, 12th August, 2015. Push/Pull factors To understand migration flows: push/pull factors that encourage an individual to leave their country of origin (push) and choose a given
destination country (pull) If work-related reasons account for the largest share of EU immigration, welfare/benefit considerations are unlikely to be the most significant factor Post Financial Crisis, big differences in EU labour markets Eurostat employment rate for Jan-March 2015 in the UK was 72.4%: Italy 55.5% Spain - 56.4% Romania 59.1% Bulgaria 61% Poland 61.9% This is likely to also be reflected in wage differentials UK demand for labour in certain sectors (skills gaps in health, social care, IT etc., Higher Education etc.) Demographic factors: ageing population compared to some origin countries What is Free Movement
Right of all EU citizens (automatically granted to EU or EEA nationals) 1992 Treaty of Maastricht formally linked the ideas of EU citizenship to free movement One of the key aspects of EU economic integration: Free movement of goods and services (as in a trade agreement); Free movement of the means of production capital and labour; plus Service providers and service recipients (e.g. students) Equals free movement to work, study or retire Citizens of new EU member states automatically become EU citizens Schengen Agreement common visa policy and free passage across borders of participating member states (the UK and Ireland opt-out) In theory, free movement is reciprocal and continent wide: without significant disparities in push/pull factors, should equal a circular flow or churn within the EU Free Movement contd.
EU Enlargement from 2004 and differential impacts of recessions and EU currency crisis from 2007/8 Transitional Controls on free movement of new EU citizens: exercised in 2004 by all member states except for UK, Ireland and Sweden UK experienced higher than expected immigration from central and eastern European states in 2004/5 UK applied much stricter transitional controls for Romania/Bulgaria (work permits except for self-employed), lifted at start of 2014 Recent significant increase in immigration from recession-hit southern European states significant contribution to increased total migration EU law allows EU states to make distinctions between their own citizens and EU citizens (e.g. in voting, student finance, etc.) Right to security of residence means right to equal treatment on issues such as welfare become stronger the longer an individual resides in a country. Recent Trend in UK practice of imposing additional barriers may be skating on thin legal ice regarding welfare law Impacts on the East Midlands Total Population Growth by English Region, 2004-2014 (%) 16 14
12 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. Mid-year Population Estimates, 2004-2014, from NOMIS [accessed 8th September, 2015]. % of total resident population Census 2001 and 2011 Non-UK Born Population 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
2001 2011 Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2013. 2011 Census: Key Statistics for local authorities in England and Wales, Table KS204EW: Country of birth, local authorities in England and Wales. Numbers in Employment: East Midlands 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 J an 04 20
e -D 4 00 c2 J an 05 20 c e -D 05 0 2 J 2 an 6 00 06 20
c e -D J 20 an 07 20 c e -D 07 J 2 an 8 00 2 ec -D 8 00
J White not UK national an 09 20 c e -D 09 0 2 J 2 an 0 01 10 20 c e -D
J an 11 20 c e -D 11 0 2 J 2 an 2 01 12 20 c e -D J 20
an 13 20 c e -D 13 J 2 an 4 01 2 ec -D 4 01 Ethnic minority not UK national Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2015. Annual Population Survey, January-December 2004 to January-December 2014, from NOMIS [accessed 8th September, 2015].
Research on the Impacts of Migration Significant body of recent academic and public-sector research exploring: Fiscal impacts (contributions in taxation less value of benefits and services) Labour market impacts Displacement of native workers into unemployment? Dampening of average wages or the wages of UK-born workers? Economic impacts (contribution to GDP) Fiscal Impacts Research by Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), University College London, and the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR): Migrants, having a younger age profile than non-migrants (and less likely to have dependents) + higher employment rates generally leads to a positive net fiscal contribution; The OBR estimates that, without migration, the UK net public sector debt would rise from 74% of GDP in 2012 to 187% in 50 years time (above the current national debt of Greece); UCL estimate that recent migrants (post-2001) and those from EU-countries were be 45% less likely than non-migrants to receive state benefits or tax credits; and Between 2001 and 2011, recent EU migrants contributed 34% more to the fiscal system than they took out in benefits, tax credits and services. UK natives and established non-EU migrants (pre-2001), because of their older age profiles (and greater likelihood of dependents/lower employment rate), contributed 11% less
in taxes than the value of the benefits and services they received. Labour Market Impacts Research tests the following hypotheses: According to mainstream economic theory, the labour market will adjust to an increase in labour supply in the long-run, and will return to equilibrium employment levels and wages But different skill levels between migrants compared to non-migrants may, in the short-run, cause non-migrants to be displaced into unemployment and/or average wages to fall There is not a fixed number of jobs in the economy: one additional migrant in employment does not necessarily lead to one less job available for a UK native Labour Market Impacts contd. Home Office/BIS research (March 2014): No evidence of displacement or wage dampening prior to 2008, even following significant increase in net-migration after 2004 EU enlargement. Employment levels of migrants and non-migrants increased As the recession impacted on the UK labour market in the latter half of 2008, employment levels for UK-born workers and non-EU migrants fell up to 2012 Employment levels of EU-migrants recovered from 2009 From 2012, employment levels of UK-born and non-EU migrants began to increase.
Employment levels for UK-born workers grew more strongly than for migrants between 2012 and 2013 Therefore, the cross-departmental study concluded that: during periods of overall economic growth, there was little or no evidence of displacement the labour market adjusted rapidly to any increase in supply; in periods of recession, if this also coincided with high volumes of net migration, there may be some instances of displacement (both for UK and non-EU workers) with EU workers being particularly resilient. East Midlands Research Undertaken by the Warwick Institute for Employment Research (IER) in 2007 and 2011 for EM region: Rates of pay growth did not differ in occupations in which high proportions of migrants were employed compared to the average Exits by UK-born workers from occupations where large proportions of migrants were employed were stable over time, and did not appear to increase as the number of migrants increased after 2004 Following the onset of recession in 2008, job losses were particularly evident in Manufacturing and Transport and Storage, with the impacts being proportionately similar for migrants and non-migrants At a local level, there was no strong relationship between changes in the numbers of migrant workers and changes in the rate or numbers unemployed In the 2007 research, migrants had a polarised distribution in the East Midlands: in either very highly skilled occupations, or in low skill occupations. In the 2011 research, there were higher concentrations in low skill occupations Summary Non-EU migrants account for the largest share of annual net migration,
but EU migration has increased to the highest level on record Largest proportion of EU migration for work-related reasons, with the majority (61%) having a definite job offer Study continues to be the main reason for non-EU migration to the UK EU citizens have a significantly higher rate of employment that UK nationals and non-EU citizens in the UK Although non-EU citizens make up a larger share of annual net migration, EU citizens now make up a significantly larger share of employment numbers in both the UK and the East Midlands In the East Midlands, EU nationals are more concentrated in Lincolnshire, the cities and surrounding districts, whilst non-EU nationals are more concentrated in the cities (especially Leicester) Research suggests EU migrants make a significant net fiscal contribution There is little evidence that EU migrants displace non-migrants in the labour market www.tuc.org.uk Employment of Migrant Workers in the Regional Economy Lee Barron Regional Secretary TUC Midlands www.tuc.org.uk TUC position on
migration All workers have fundamental rights Migrant workers must be treated equally otherwise they will be used by bad employers to undercut local workers - unions have been active in organising migrants to build collective floor level of rigths Free Movement is a fundamental right of the EU the TUC opposed transitional measures for the accession of the A8 and A2 countries to the EU www.tuc.org.uk Migrants in labour market 9.9% of the East Midlands resident population were born outside the UK below the UK average of 13.8% According to the Labour Force Survey 8.3% of the total workforce in the East Midlands has a non-UK nationality lower than the UK average of 10.3% Majority of migrant workers are employed in high and low skill sectors, few in between Many migrants in low skill jobs work for agencies precarious contracts and low wages are the norm, exploitation also common
www.tuc.org.uk Wages: Migrants dont drive down pay bad employers do. Too many employers use migrants willingness to work for less (as they are often in need of finding work quickly and wages are higher than in their home countries). Jobs: little evidence of job displacement, however, the growth in precarious work has made more local workers feel insecure. Migrants are being used as scapegoats but are not the cause of insecure jobs bad employers are. We need more quality jobs for everyone and decent pay. www.tuc.org.uk No evidence of benefit tourism EU Commission has found no evidence of benefit tourism in 2013 report A8 migrants contribute 22 billion
more to the economy than they consumed in services (UCL, 2013) www.tuc.org.uk Migration Messaging project April 2014 2015: TUC worked with communities to promote messages of solidarity and workers rights to counter antimigrant media and political rhetoric www.tuc.org.uk TUC worked with Corby community, unions and employers to make the film Fairness at Work: Lessons from Corby https://www.tuc.org.uk/about-tuc/regions/watch-film-%E2%80%98fairness-work-lessons-corby%E2%80%99 www.tuc.org.uk TUC Education work on migration
www.tuc.org.uk TUC work with European partners 1. TUC ran a European Commission funded project Developing information for migrant workers through transnational trade union cooperation in 2014 http://www.migrantinfo.eu/ 2. This helped to fund the TUCs Working in the UK guide in 13 different languages including Polish, Spanish and Romanian www.tuc.org.uk/workingintheuk 3. TUC has signed a number of agreements to work in partnership with unions in other countries, eg. Poland, Italy, Portugal www.tuc.org.uk European Trade Union Confederation TUC is part of the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) and part of its UnionMigrantNet portal which provides information on employment rights to EU migrants looking to move from one country to another ETUC actions on EU migration: European states must treat migrants equally Inform them of their rights Counter moves by states such as the UK to limit free movement
Commission and Member States must provide more resources to help integrate migrants into communities and to unions to organise migrants so they can claim inform them of their rights. States must do more to enforce employment regulation to prevent migrants being exploited, See ETUC Action Plan on migration https://www.etuc.org/documents/action-plan-migration#.VeBG oCVViko East Midlands Economy and Trends Ian Bates, East Midlands Chamber East Midlands Profile The East Midlands 'A bellwether of the UK economy Governor Mark Carney, August 2013 Well balanced economy: strong manufacturing, but also significant service sector, retail, distribution and construction; Manufacturing a bigger contributor to GVA than any other
region; Businesses numbers: 145,295 Micro (0-9 employees): 87.6% UK: 88.2% Small (10-49): 10.2% UK: 9.7% Medium (50-249): 1.8% UK: 1.7% Large (250+): 0.4% UK: 0.4% East Midlands Profile Occupation by sector 16.0% Wholesale/retail 12.7% Manufacturing 7.5%
Professional/scientific/technical 6.4% Construction 5.3% Transportation & storage East Midlands Profile Occupation by job type 16.9% Professional 13.0% Technical 10.5% Administrative 11.1% Skilled
9.9% Managers 9.2% Personal Services 7.6% Sales & Customer services 8.5% Plant/Machinery operatives - highest in country 12.8% Elementary (e.g. unskilled, manual) - highest in country From bellwether to leader East Midlands one of the fastest growing regional economies
GVA growth of 8.5% 2009-2012, highest outside of London and South East Manufacturing is a bigger contributor to GVA than anywhere else in UK RBS Regional Growth Tracker . but it has been the East Midlands that has been standing out from the pack in the last 12 months. The region has shared in the recovery in professional, scientific and technical services, but stood out from the pack thanks to the performance of its retail and distribution industries. Its advanced manufacturing sector has also been roaring along. The region also benefits from an inherent productivity advantage over most of its peers, which has further boosted growth. From bellwether to leader Employment Unemployment amongst 16+ in East Midlands now stands at 4.7% (5.6% nationally); Creating private sector jobs faster than any other region 104,000 in 2013/14 Gross weekly pay for full-time workers of 547 (580 nationally) What QES tells us about skills Quarterly economic survey is the largest business survey of its kind for Derbs, Notts and Leics receives 400+ responses each quarter
Q2 2015 Attempted to recruit: Struggled to recruit: Q2 2014: Attempted to recruit: Struggled to recruit: Q2 2013: Attempted to recruit: Struggled to recruit: 61% 60% 56% 50% 40% 42% What QES tells us about skills What type of roles? 85% are full-time roles 80% are permanent roles What areas do people struggle to fill? 56% 45% 20%
20% report struggles to fill professional/managerial roles report struggles to fill skilled manual report struggles to fill clerical report struggles to fill unskilled/semiskilled roles. Overarching message East Midlands economy is growing Key strength is our diversity of sectors, meaning variety of job-types are created at variety of levels Structural issues in education mean that the workforce we need does not exist at present Free movement of labour across EU has been an important tool in helping us meet demands of growth in the short-term The importance of this may diminish in the longer-term as we address structural issues in the education system and look to develop our economy towards high-wage, high-skilled. Ian Bates, East Midlands Chamber of Commerce
(Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire & Leicestershire) [email protected] / 0333 320 0333 Facilitated discussion 1. What is the impact of intra-EU migration? a. Impact on the Labour Market b. Impact on Public Services c. Impact on Communities 2. Are changes to free movement rules needed? If so, what might those changes look like?
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