Social Mobility Grinding to a Halt? New Evidence from the ...

Social Mobility Grinding to a Halt? New Evidence from the ...

Intergenerational Social Mobility in the UK Franz Buscha, University of Westminster Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton The ONS Longitudinal Study - 40 years old and going strong Royal Statistical Society, 3rd February 2015 Acknowledgements Funded under ESRC secondary data analysis initiative (round 1) Joint work with Patrick Sturgis, University of Southampton The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: RES-34825-0004). Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Proportion of ONS-LS members for whom parental information is available LS members aged 0-10 at nearest census 0 LS members aged 0-16 at 1971 census 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Date of birth All ONS-LS members

Parental info 1971 Parental info 1981 Parental info 1991 Parental info 2001 Parental info 2011 Parental NSSEC 1971 Parental NSSEC 1981 Parental NSSEC 1991 Parental NSSEC 2001

Parental NSSEC 2011 Source: ONS-LS 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2011 7 Estimating intergenerational correlation using the ONSLS Child age in cohort Parental Status Intergenerational correlation estimates, r Child Status

Child age in cohort Child age 10-16 1971 Child age 10-16 1981 1981 Child age

Child age 10-16 1991 1991 Child age 30-36 Child age 2001 2001 Child age 30-36 2011

Child age 30-36 8 How to socio-economic position? CAMSIS NS-SEC INCOME Cambridge Social Interaction and Stratification Scale National Statistics SocioEconomic Status

Not available in census Derived from correspondence analysis of marriage/cohabitation frequencies Measure of occupational social status Occupation-based measure of social class based on employment relations Continuous service contract, salary based, career progression V Short-term/fixed contract to sell labour for wages based

on time worked/output Requires imputation from donor data sets. Requires accurate income prediction models. Limited variables in ONS LS which are in potential donor surveys 9 NS-SEC Distributions 1971-2011 NSSEC 1971 1 - Employer large org/higher manager & prof. 4.5

2 - lower managers & prof/higher supervisor 16.99 3 - intermediate occupations 16.98 4 - employers in small org & own account work 7.37 5 - lower supervisor & technical 10.87 6 - semi-routine occupations 18.38 7 - routine occupations 24.92 All LS members surveyed. 1971 and 1981 based on SOC derivation 1981 7.14 18.72 16.83

7.45 9.78 18.52 21.56 1991 7.09 20.22 17.69 8.92 9.09 18.77 18.22 2001 10.54 24.53 13.19

9.47 10.48 17.31 14.48 2011 11.42 23.59 15.09 11.08 8.37 16.78 13.67 Absolute vs relative mobility Absolute = % of people reaching higher/lower social position than their parents Affected by changes in occupational structure over time

E.g. move from agricultural/industrial to service economy in 20th Century But says little about inequality of opportunity or outcomes Relative = Adjusts for changes in distribution of occupation structure over time Speaks more to issues of equality than absolute mobility 11 Absolute mobility by year cohorts, 5 point NS-SEC scale 12 Relative mobility, 5 point NS-SEC scale 13

Relative mobility, CAMSIS correlations, age 30 to 36 14 We also looked at the impact of education reforms on social mobility Parent Quintile 2 Parent Quintile 3 0 1950 1955 1960 1965

1970 1950 Parent Quintile 4 1955 1960 1965 1970 1950 Parent Quintile 5 1955 1960

1965 .4 0 .2 Proportion with no qualifications in 2001 1950 1955 1960 1965

1970 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 Date of birth of 1971 LS member Graphs by parent 1971 CAMSIS quintile. 1 Year averages 1970 Proportion with GCSE/O-level as highest qualification in 2001

.6 Proportion .2 .4 .6 Parent Quintile 1 Figure 1 The impact of 1972 RoSLA on intergenerational mobility Source: ONS-LS 1971 to 2001. Scatter plot is jittered to degree 2 Absent fathers

Working Mothers Discussion The ONS-LS is an excellent data source for social mobility analysis Our own results suggests that: There has been an increase in absolute mobility for women over successive cohorts. Rates now equal men. Mixed evidence on Relative mobility rates (fluidity) Increase for men using NS-SEC, stable for women using NS-SEC Increase for men and women using CAMSIS Stable for men and women using income mobility (constant flux)

Notable variation in results from year to year There is no evidence that additional schooling causally impacted occupation-based social mobility Future of the ONS-LS in mobility analysis? The ONS-LS still has a lot to offer on social mobility There is the question of getting a better measure of income included? Merging other administrative data sources? Determinants of; who are the upwardly, downwardly mobile, how do they change over time? Regional mobility? Mobility by ethnic group (Platt) / immigration status? 2021 will allow insight into the generation born in the 1990s. Thanks for your attention

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