The Doha Development Agenda An Update World Bank December 1, 2005 Key Messages A successful Doha Round is very important from a development perspective Hong Kong Ministerial December 13-18, 2005 originally expected to agree negotiating modalities for agriculture and non-agricultural market access (NAMA), plus progress in services, rules, trade facilitation and development dimension WTO Members now recalibrating expectations for Hong Kong, but maintaining the initial ambition for the Round Hong Kong an intermediary stage on the way to full modalities; aim to agree on a range of numbers the outer parameters in the July 2004 frameworks, and
corresponding texts in the rule-making part of the negotiations Draft Declaration issued November 26 Sights must not be lowered if Doha is to be a true development round There is a lot of work to do before end 2006 Important progress has already been made Conditional agreement on elimination of export subsidies Narrowing of Singapore Issues to
trade facilitation only TRIPS waiver on access to medicines July 2004 Framework Agreement elements on agriculture Development at the center of a trade round Outstanding issues Key issues remain to be resolved Agriculture, in particular market access Cotton Developing countries, especially MICs, on NAMA Services Including benchmarks Development dimension
Complementary agenda on aid for trade Agricultural Market Access Proposal US Cut on highest tariffs % Sensitive products % Tariff Cap Deved/ Deving 90 1 75/x 60
8 100/150 75 < or = 1 100/150 45/50* 10/15* NO 10/10 EU 10/28 G20 10/12 G10
10/10 * Numbers indicative only Large cuts are needed to reduce actual trade distorting domestic support $US billion 70 79%* 60 Overhang 50 40 93%* Actual 30 47%* 20 10 EU
US Japan *percentages refer to degree of overhang NAMA Definition of the formula Agreement on Swiss formula, but not on coefficients Flexibility for developing countries Some groups seek special treatment Newly acceded, small and vulnerable Differentiation among developing countries EU proposes the same coefficient for developed and advanced developing countries (with some additional
flexibilities) - but this is very controversial Participation in sectoral negotiations? E.g., jewels, sports equipment, pharmaceuticals Treatment of unbound tariffs How to calculate the base rate for reductions? Services 69 offers, plus 30 revised (EU25 counted as 1), but low quality and lack of momentum Mandatory quantitative benchmarks for coverage of commitments in service sectors? Opposed by many developing countries Plurilateral negotiations
Mandatory participation benchmarks? Overall objectives for modes GATS rules Broad agreement to continue negotiations and intensify efforts Trade Facilitation Solid progress to date Large number of proposals, broad participation Special and differential treatment (SDT), capacity building (CB) and technical assistance (TA) integral parts of any agreement Link between TA and CB and implementation of commitments will be a critical part of the negotiations in 2006
Expectations that negotiations in this area will move from Uruguay Round-style best endeavor approach to commitments of secure financing for implementation Role of international organizations, including Bank Where next? Text based negotiations on Articles V, VIII and X of GATT 1994? Development Issues Proposals to strengthen SDT Focus on 28 (of the 88 proposals) agreed in principle for Cancn, PLUS 5 agreement-specific proposals from LDCs Duty and quota free access for all LDC exports
Resistance from countries concerned with preference erosion Benefits require flexible rules of origin Concerns re preference erosion and net food importers Losses may be less than expected: offsetting gains; time period for implementation; utilization of existing preferences; likely price rises for food Serious problem for a few countries, who will require increased international assistance aid for trade- to cope with transitional adjustment costs Adjustment costs should not be a reason to deny the benefits of liberalization to the vast majority of developing countries Extended transition periods for affected products raise risk reducing gains from the round Aid for Trade Important complement to but not substitute for
an ambitious Doha Round Integrated Framework (IF) Increased funding, plus enhanced ability to leverage much larger bilateral and multilateral resources Including to address infrastructure constraints Geneva-based task force of donors and LDCs working on a new governance structure, for agreement in April 2006 Contributions likely pending agreement on governance Adjustment Diagnostics and assistance Regional/cross-country needs Exploring need for additional mechanisms Aid for Trade contd
LDC proposal Enhanced IF; adjustment facility managed by the WTO; infrastructure fund; debt relief, swaps and buy-back Increased focus in bilateral programs Scope to make progress in Hong Kong Proposals in Nov 26 draft Declaration Rules Some highlights Debate on clarification of disciplines on anti-dumping and subsidies (including fisheries subsidies) expected to become more intense in 2006 Progress on transparency procedures concerning RTAs, but limited progress on strengthening systemic disciplines
Conclusion November 2005, WTO Members recalibrate expectations for Hong Kong, but maintain the initial ambition for the Round The hardest decisions of the Doha Round will now need to be made in early 2006 End of 2006 target for completion (US TPA expiry, June 2007) There is too much at stake to lower sights on Doha Bank will continue to contribute through Advocacy for an ambitious, pro-development Round Research on trade policy and reform Aid for trade, including cooperation on enhanced IF TA and CB at global and country levels, including greater integration of trade into country programs
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