The Mad Hedge Fund Trader "Special Earthshaking Issue'"

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader "Special Earthshaking Issue'"

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Its All About Janet With John Thomas from San Francisco, September 9, 2015 Trade Alert Performance New All Time High! *January +0.53% Final *July +6.42% Final *February +7.73% Final *August +1.27% Final

*March +3.00% Final *September 3.29% MTD *April +6.62% Final *May +5.15% Final *June

+3.68% Final *2015 Year to Date +35.52% compared to -7% for the Dow Average *Trailing 1 year return +35.40%, +188.33% since inception *Average annualized return of 39.58%

Portfolio Review Run a small book in crash conditions a very wide short strangle Mad Hedge Fund Trader Trading Book

Asset Class Breakdown Risk Adjusted Basis Expiration P&L 35.86% Chart Title

current capital at risk 1 2

Risk On World is Getting Better none 0.00%

Risk Off World is Getting Worse (SPY) 9/$204-$207 put spread -10.00%

Paid Subscriber Trailing 12 Month Audited Return +35.40% - The Comeback Kid! 50.0% 40.0%

30.0% 20.0% 10.0%

0.0% 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5/ 17/ 29/ /9/ 21/ 31/ 12/ 24/ /5/ 17/ 30/ 12/ 23/ /4/ 17/ 27/ 11/ 23/ /2/ 15/ 27/ /7/ 19/ /1/ 11/ 23/ /6/ 16/ 28/ /7/ 19/ 31/ / 9 9/ 9/ 10 0/ 0/ 1/ 1/ 12 2/ 2/ 1/ 1/ 2 2/ 2/ 3/ 3/

4 4/ 4/ 5 5/ 6 6/ 6/ 7 7/ 7/ 8 8/ 8/ 1 1 1 1

1 1 -10.0% 57 Months Since Inception Daily Audited Performance

Averaged annualized return +39.58% 250.00% 200.00% 150.00%

100.00% 50.00% 0.00%

10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 0/ /2/ 11/ /8/ /2/ 26/ 25/ 17/ /8/ /1/ 21/ 14/ /5/ 28/ 22/ 14/ /6/ 26/ 16/ /8/ 27/ 22/ 14/ /6/ 26/ 18/ /8/ 28/ 22/ 16/ /6/ 26/ 18/ 1 / 2 4/ 6 8 9/ 1/ 1/ 3 5 6/ 8/ 10 1/ 1/ 3/ 5 6/ 8/ 10 1/ 1/ 3/ 5 6/ 8/ 10 1/ 1/ 3/ 5 6/ 8/ 12 1

1 1 1 10 Stocks to Buy at the Bottom Lennar Homes (LEN) $53.45

Home Depot (HD) $116.16 Walt Disney (DIS) $98.84 General Motors (GM) $29.60 Tesla (TSLA) $230.77 Apple (AAPL) $105.76 Solar City (SCTY) $40.99

Gilead Sciences (GILD) $105.33 Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) $52.01 Wisdom Tree Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ) $56.95 Strategy Outlook-Setting Up the BUY *The bottom in stocks may be in, but expect a retest, and another flash crash,

thanks to structurally poor liquidity *Huge short covering rally in oil to $48, but oil producer hedging smashed it back down to $45, entering seasonal weakness *Bond market gets a flight to safety bid, will hold until Fed Sept 17 decision *If no rate rise, then we have 3.7% economic growth,

full unemployment, and zero inflation for the first time in history, therefore buy stocks on the big dips *Profit taking on King dollar returns, long term bull market intact *Gold stalls again at the bottom

The China Syndrome *From the Gang of Four to the Gang Who Couldnt Shoot Straight *Government manipulation of stock market fails, will drag on rest of the economy, the market that refuses to take orders *220 traders arrested for short selling, $200 billion spent to support stocks *Ham handed efforts have become a wellspring of global volatility, will continue for

months until proof that the main economy isnt damaged The Bill Davis View Picks of the Week Buys: QIHU 360 Techmology Co. Ltd. (QIHU) $46.50 Target to $56

(If it breaks under $43.75, buy is invalidated) Biogen, Inc. (BIIB) $289 Target to $367 CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF) $53 Target to $62 Electronic Arts,Inc. (EA) $66 Target to $70

Ralph Lauren Corp (RL) $112 Target to $125 FedEx Corp (FDX) $150 Target to $175 Biogen Inc (BIIB) $298 Target to $367

Sells: TripAdvisor, Inc. (TRIP) Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Linkedin Corp (LNKD) Bunge Ltd. (BG)

$74 Target to $56 $75 Target to $50 $187 Target to $162 $72 Target to $62 The Global Economy-US Engine of Growth

*Tepid August nonfarm payroll at 173,000, but average august revisions are 90,000, next months revisions to 263,000 on October 2 will spark big stock rally *Q2 GDP revised up to a blockbuster 3.7%, July personal incomes up +0.4%, spending up +0.3% *The US is now the sole engine of growth, with Europe, China, and Japan still

weak *China cuts GDP forecast from 7.4% to 7.33% growth, but the real number is probably 3% *Next to come is a RISK ON global synchronized growth

Weekly Jobless Claims Another Run at the Lows 4,000 to 277,000, NEW 42 YEAR LOW! headed for Full Unemployment at 5%-Global Recovery a Driver Bonds-Its All About Janet *All eyes now on Fed, expect a narrow range until September 17

*China sells $100 billion of $1 trillion in US Treasury bond holdings to support its stock markets, produces a snore instead of a crash, and no move in rates *Crash eliminates any chance of a Fed rate rise in September, even though the economic data say otherwise *173,000 nonfarm payroll and 5.1% unemployment rate puts a cap on any bond price rises, floor under yields

*The China crash has slowed things down, with IMF and World begging for a rate hike delay, is basis for the recent 11 point rally *Junk bonds get slaughtered, touching October, 2014 low, becoming a BUY Target

Ten Year Treasuries (TLT) 2.25% The down trend is in place! Sell Rallies! Ten Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) 2.25% 1.95% Support Holds

Junk Bonds (HYG) 6.44% Yield Big Hedge Funds lining up to short 2X Short Treasuries (TBT)Second Half Big Trade? Buy at the Dip, $41 will hold

Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) 4.27% Yield Emerging Market Debt (ELD) 5.50% YieldBig hedge funds lining up to sell-Identical chart to junk bonds Municipal Bonds (MUB)-1.74% yield

Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bondsanother Puerto Rico Crisis looming Stocks-Living on a Roller Coaster *Retest of the October 2014 $1,820 coming with another possible 1,000 point flash crash, buy every big volatility dip and sell every rally *Watch the stocks that bounced back the fastest, they will lead in next rally, (HD),

(DIS), (AAPL), (GE), (SCTY), (NFLX) *Crash was exaggerated by the exodus of market makers from the business, especially the banks, creating a structural liquidity shortage and high volatility *Stocks have gone from fairly valued to cheap in a week, multiple falls from 17.5 to 15 X 2015 earnings, and 13.5 X 2016 earnings. 10% down and those numbers are 13.5X and 12X,

2009 levels that bring in buyers in droves *October 2 August payroll revisions to 263,000 could trigger fall rally *China is the wild card, but we are approaching the end of this crash

Shanghai ($SSEC)-The Bad Boy S&P 500-200 Day MA in Play at $206.10 Old support becomes resistance long the 9/$204-$207 vertical bear put spread-7 trading days to expiration

Dow Average-Boring!, Down -7% on the year! 200-day MA break! The Death Cross That Worked NASDAQ (QQQ)-The new leadership Solar City (SCTY)-Elon Musk engineers another short squeeze,

Buys $50 million of stock Europe Hedged Equity (HEDJ)-Greek bounce (VIX)-Four Year High!

(XIV)-Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN buy on next market selloff and VIX spike Russell 2000 (IWM)-The Weak Link most affected by rising rates-Great leading indicator

Palo Alto Networks (PANW)New Uptrend Technology Sector SPDR (XLK), (ROM) (AAPL), (MSFT), (VZ), (T), (FB), (IBM) Industrials Sector SPDR (XLI)-Dow Mainstay

(GE), (MMM), (UNP), (UTX), (BA), (HON) Transports Sector SPDR (XTN)Another Dow Mainstay (ALGT), (ALK), (JBLU), (LUV), (CHRW), (DAL), Health Care Sector SPDR (XLV), (RXL)

(JNJ), (PFE), (MRK), (GILD), (ACT), (AMGN) Financial Select SPDR (XLF)Party Postponed (BLK/B), (WFC), (JPM), (BAC), (C), (GS) Regional Bank Basket (KBE)-The Fix on the Fed is In

(MTG), (RDN), (SIVB), (CFG), (CFR), (BXS) Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) (DIS), (AMZN), (HD), (CMCSA), (MCD), (SBUX) Apple (AAPL) Announcement Day

waiting for the next real catalyst-the iPhone 7 Biotech iShares (IBB)-The Uptrend has begun Japan (DXJ)-Hedged Japan Equity took profits on 20% weighting-Love That Stimulus! 10% in 2 Days

Sony (SNE)-Buy Territory Emerging Markets (EFA)another big short sellers target India (EPI)-Buy it Here

Foreign Currencies-Long Term Trends Reasserting *Global panic brings dollar profit taking as traders dump all interest rate rise plays, no chance of September Fed rate rise, if they do rise, it will bring another crash, is all bad for the dollar *Will create another great long dollar entry point

*Europe to expand asset purchases, is very pro dollar *China devaluation reaches nearly 5% to boost economy and exports, slaughtering (CYB) *Euro gives back its spike *Yen spike goes to on stimulus

Euro ($XEU), (FXE), (EUO)-Playing Both Asides Post Greece Hangover Long Dollar Index (UUP)-

Canadian Dollar (FXC)-Commodity Collapse Japanese Yen (FXY)- Short Japanese Yen ETF (YCS)

Australian Dollar (FXA) Commodity Disaster Chinese Yuan- (CYB)-4% Devaluation Emerging Market Currencies (CEW) another hedge fund short target and flash crash

Energy-Lower for Longer *The oil markets are now moving from seasonal strength to weakness, should bring the final bottom, US rigs fall -13 to 662 *Another bottoming signal will be an outbreak of takeover by big companies of small companies

*Dividends dropping like flies throughout the energy space, cut by half or all? *$100 billion in commodity ETF redemptions in 4 years is a huge drag *Commodity futures ETF net exposure at all time low *Shale net debt rises from $80 billion to $161 billion 2010-2015 *2015 H1 shale losses reach $30 billion,

leading to a bankruptcy wave *Buy this final washout Oil-May Be a Q4 Story United States Oil Fund (USO)

Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) (XOM), (CVX), (SLB), (KMI), (EOG), (COP) stocks lead oil turnaround by 6 months MLPs (LINE)-Dividend Suspended!

Shares fall to option value Exxon (XOM)-A Perfect Storm Oil Crashes, then the Stock Market Crashes Occidental Petroleum (OXY)-

Conoco Phillips (COP)- Natural Gas (UNG)-Bouncing along a bottom Copper-Commodity Collapse

Freeport McMoRan (FCX)-New Lows $100 Billion of Commodity ETF Redemptions in 4 Years Precious Metals-Dont Chase Here!

*Shanghai Gold Exchange net sales hit 302 tonnes in August, a new all time high, as metal is dumped to meet margin calls *CTA gold futures net position reaches a short for the first time in history *Poor monsoon could weaken Indian buying, worlds largest buyer *As Fed interest rate rise looms,

the fundamental picture for gold goes from bad to worse Gold (GLD)- Finally, A Flight to Safety Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF- (GDX)

Silver (SLV)- Silver Miners (SIL) Palladium (PALL)

Agriculture-New Lows! *Return of fine weather in the Midwest ends the rally, new lows in reach *Floods in Texas finally end *Extreme drought conditions continue in California, bringing back

the water wars *No trade here, dragged down by the global commodity bust *Pass for now, bigger fish to fry elsewhere, US stocks much more interesting

(CORN) Back to the Bottom (WEAT)- Ag Commodities ETF (DBA)-New Lows!

Real Estate-Gaining Speed *New housing starts hot eight year high, up +13% YOY, but still 25% below long term average *Multi family strong, making up for apartments not built during the crash

*June Case Shiller up +5% YOY *Homebuilders to lead stock for rest of 2015 *Predicted rush to buy homes to beat the fed interest rate hike is unfolding *Spillover occurring into the existing home market, pushing

Case Shiller data upward June S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index +5.0% YOY, Denver, San Francisco, Dallas US Home Construction Index (ITB)

(DHI), (LEN), (PHM), (TOL), (NVR) Trade Sheet So What Do We Do About All This? *Stocks- buy the dips *Bonds-the top is in, sell rallies, buy (TBT)

*Commodities-stand aside, buy the next oil down leg *Currencies- Sell short the Yen and Euro on rallies *Precious Metals stand aside, wait for new low *Volatility-sell short spikes through (XIV) *The Ags wait for new lows *Real estate-buy the homebuilders LT

To buy strategy luncheon tickets Please go to: Next Strategy Webinar 12:00 EST Wednesday,

September 23, 2015 San Francisco, California USA! Good Luck and Good Trading!

Recently Viewed Presentations

  • Community College Funding: How it works and why it matters

    Community College Funding: How it works and why it matters

    Community College Funding: How it works and why it matters. California Community College Leadership Academy (3CLA) September 21, 2017. Kathy Blackwood, Executive Vice Chancellor, San Mateo County Community College District
  • Pre AP - September 10, 2018 Do Now:

    Pre AP - September 10, 2018 Do Now:

    (Thesis includes my position on the topic and introduces the sources I will use to defend my positon) My hook: Actions have consequences. This is a lesson most individuals have been taught since childhood. ... Bridge. You must connect your...
  • Determining Theme - Weebly

    Determining Theme - Weebly

    In the upper left corner write a TOPIC and then a THEME that relates to your topic. In the upper right, draw an illustration that represents how the theme is communicated in the text. In the bottom left, write a...
  • Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting

    Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting

    As with authentication, AAA authorization is configured by defining a "named" list of authorization methods, and then applying that list to various interfaces. ... No ARA, no NetBEUI. Confidentiality. Entire packet encrypted. Only the password is encrypted.
  • Problem-Based History - Miami-Dade County Public Schools

    Problem-Based History - Miami-Dade County Public Schools

    Problem-Based History. America and Great Britain: Reaching a Point of No-Return?. This power point presentation is for educational purposes. It may contain copyrighted material. Please do not post, redistribute or copy without the permission of the author or Dr. Kevin...


    aarnet is the data connector. user. research cloud. public cloud. secure cloud. domain repositories. institution repositories. government repositories. university research storage
  • Presentation Game -

    Presentation Game -

    JAMES TAYLOR. MICHAEL JACKSON. WYNONA JUDD. FAMOUS SINGERS. Famous Singers 2/2. Scrambled Egos Rules: Requires 2 slides for each game. Show scrambled words and give player(s) 60 seconds to write down as many unscrambled words as possible. Show next slide...
  • HIA introduction - WHO website,

    HIA introduction - WHO website,

    This included calls for EIA and HIA of all new developments in Africa. Health21 - The health for all policy framework The 51 countries comprising WHO's European Region have embraced a common policy framework for health development that outlines strategies...