El impacto de la crisis econmica mundial: Una perspectiva de gnero Rania Antonopoulos Quito, 26-27 Noviembre 2009 Foro Internacional LA CRISIS MUNDIAL Y ECUADOR: CARACTERISTICAS, CONSECUENCIAS, OPORTUNIDADES Y DIMENSIONES DE GNERO; MINISTERIO DE FINANZAS, UNIFEM, CIGENERO,FLACSO AC DEMOCRACIA, ILDIS The role of Markets revisited Challenge: Sub-prime mortgage crisis leads to turmoil in financial markets Challenge: Overall demand is insufficient to provide jobs and hire those who need and wish to work Challenge: Poverty, inequality, discrimination, precarious work conditions, low wages The role of Government revisited Economic and Social outcomes of Laissez faire, and small government prove uneven and often times disappointing
In financial markets it can ameliorate instability and fragility: - Bailout (who/how???) - But also different rules and regulations are needed (what are the new rules???) These are not simply technical issues A framework to understand the crisis from a gender perspective Paid formal Financial sector Paid informal Market Production sector Unpaid Work Government Sector
Household production sector, plus Care, Reproduction and fulfillment of basic needs of people A framework to understand Gender dimension of the Crisis Neglect of domestic demand, reliance on exports, commodity chain production Financial sector Washington Consensus, Inflation targeting Deficits, IMF, Social spending??? Financial market Liberalization Functional Distribution of Income ? Market Production
sector Government sector Household production, Reproduction and fulfillment of basic needs of people A Gender perspective on the crisis Global and National economic and institutional arrangements in the making for many years led to this financial crisis disregarding another equally real crisis : the non-fulfillment of basic human needs and of a pro-poor, gender equitable development agenda Outline of the issues presented 1. Asymmetric impacts of the Crisis 2. A Gender analysis on the crisis
a) how are women impacted upon b) what may be a gender equality juncture? 3. differently than men? agenda at this The policy space created:the right to a job? a)Can the right to work become part of Constitutional set of rights? b) can it also promote gender-equality and growth? the pro-poor Asymmetry #1 Developing countries are hit by the current crisis hard, for no fault of their own Asymmetry #2 Not all governments have the capacity to engage in expansionary policy and fiscal stimulus packages
Asymmetry #3 Social impacts are uneven: People living in poverty have little to cushion them; As poor women and men occupy different social and economic positions, their response to the crisis and their suffering from it should not be treated as identical Asymmetry #1 Developing countries are hit hard by the current crisis, and for no fault of their own GDP growth Trade flows Remittances Declining GDP per capita 70 60 60 50 40
De ve lope d countrie s Economie s in trans ition De ve loping countrie s 33 30 20 13 12 14 10 22 18 2
1 0 2008 2009 2010 De-coupling? Source: top graph Jomo K, UN-DESA (July 13-14, 2009;GEM-IWG conference); bottom graph Jayati Ghosh (July 10,2009; GEM-IWG Workshop) World Trade (percentage change per year) Top Recipients of Migrant remittances Remittances in Mexico and other Latin American Countries($US) Asymmetry #2 Not all governments have the capacity to engage in expansionary policy and fiscal
stimulus packages Most vulnerable: high poverty and slow growth External Indicators of Developing and Transition Economies (with Population over 5 Million) 2003 to 2007 Current Account Balance Number of Countries External Debt % of GDP 2003 % of GDP 2006 % improvement % with
improvement Foreign Exchange Reserves, excl. gold % of GDP 2003 % of GDP 2007 % with improvement Africa 31 45% 89.7
43.0 97% 12.8 18.1 78% Central and Eastern Europe 8 38% 55.4 57.3 57%
36.9 100% 27.2 32.7 69% Asymmetry#3 Social Impacts are uneven People living in poverty have little to cushion them Women and men respond differently to the crisis Social impacts ILO: 200 m. more working poor ILO: Unemployment to rise by 51m World Bank: 53 million more people in poverty This is on top of the 130-155 million people pushed into poverty in 2008 because of
soaring food and fuel prices Social spending is at risk (infant and maternal mortality) decline in state revenues ODA volatility and financing for MDGs Rising social unrest Crisis is expected to lead to greatest security risks Social Impacts are uneven Malnourishment and school withdrawal among poor children: in most countries, girls suffer more Women increase their Supply of Labour because they accept to work under very informal conditions Men suffer from depression, low self-esteem and will experience in some cases a decrease in life expectancy
When tax revenues decline, government social spending is the first victim. More unpaid work by women who end up working longer (unpaid) hours to close the gaps plus maternal mortality will be further on the rise What have we learned from past crises? 1. Investment rates collapse and savings rates rise (i.e., The Asian crisis of 1997-98) countercyclical policies are badly needed (IMF?WB?) 2. Even when economic growth resumes, employment levels take a very long time to recover public service job creation policies are badly needed Philippines: GDP growth,savings and investment rates 40.0 35.0 Malaysia: GDP growth, savings and investment rates 7.0
-10.0 -8.0 10.0 -15.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Savings rate Investment rate GDP growth rate Jayati Ghosh, GEM-IWG Workshop, Day 10, Session II, July 10, 2009, The Levy Economics Institute Savings rate Investment rate GDP growth rate What else do we know from past experiences?
The Asian financial crisis shows that the massive unemployment impacts --doubled rates within a year of the crisis-- persisted for a long time (LABORSTA, ILO) Indonesia has never recovered Thailand and the Philippines have taken nearly a decade to decrease unemployment rates to the pre-crisis levels 2. A Gender perspective on the crisis (continued) a) how are women impacted upon differently than men? b) what may be a gender equality agenda at this juncture? Total Workload Earnings Gap: Selected Developing Countries What Is Unpaid Work? Gaining access to basic inputs for cooking, cleaning, sanitation, food processing etc: collecting water, wood etc Providing Care work: children, elderly, chronically ill etc;Volunteer work;Subsistence Production, family businesses
Where? at home and in the public domain HOUSEHOLDS in the Economy: The conventional view Business Sector Formal work some family labor Banks Formal work Public Sector Formal Work Household Sector Supplies labor Receives income Saves and Consumes Original graphic design of this and the following slide is from Eugenia Gomez Luna, "Unpaid work and the System of National Accounts", Session 9, Conference on Unpaid Work: gender, poverty and the MDGs, October3-4, 2005, http://www.levy.org/undp-levy-conference/program_documents.asp
a different (Macro) perspective Business Sector Formal Labor Informal Labor Upaid work Volunteer work Public Sector Formal Labor NGO Sector Formal Volunteer Informal Labor Upaid work Volunteer work Household Sector Formal work Informal work Unpaid work Deterioration of Human capabilities?
Women and Employment Guarantee Programs Issue#1: Issue#2: Issue#3: Supply of labor issues ( constraints by unpaid work; availability of crche etc) types of projects women want Participation in design of projects (unpaid work, cooperatives, skill enhancement) evaluation criteria must include reduction of drudgery and unpaid work Time Spent on Nonmarket Activities (Selected Developing Economies) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
0 India Mauritius South Africa Female Benin Male Mongolia Madagascar Gender paths of transmission of the crisis Micro credit and Micro-finance institutions Paid work in export sectors: textiles, consignment, agriculture and tourism Informal work and vulnerable workers Unpaid work and invisible vulnerabilities Remittances and migration
Micro-finance institutions REMITTANCES and Migration Over 3,330 MFIs reached 133 million clients in 2006 Tajikistan(45.5% of GDP), Moldova (35% of GDP) 93 million of the clients were among the poorest when they took their first loan, 85% women Uganda, Zimbabwe and Tajikistan(drop of 50%) EXPORTS High-end agricultural EXPORTS High-end agricultural Malaysia -
80% female The crisis? We must bear in mind that for many people, in many countries this crisis comes to sit on top of other crises poverty income inequality diminishing space for livelihoods unemployment Basic needs remain unfulfilled,including the right to a job Changes in employment to output growth ratio 1.2 1.0
19951999 20002005 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Central and Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS Developed Countries and EU South Asia Latin America and the Caribbean
Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa 3. The policy space created: the right to a job? a) Can the right to work become part of the Constitutional set of rights? b) Can it also promote gender-equality and pro-poor growth? Why an EGS,ELR,PWP? The right to work promotes Dignity, inclusion and expanded democracy (rights based approach to economics and to life) Direct and indirect income creation Direct and indirect job creation RESOURSE MOBILIZATION??? LABOUR!!!! But community development promoting work!!! that also reduces unpaid work
Why an EGS,ELR,PWP? The right to work promotes (continued) Public and Private Asset creation Pro-poor growth Change our mentality about growth as the single developmental objective and replace it with propoor growth, employment creation, social inclusion, improvement in the life of all people Typology of Direct Job Creation Government Programs The Right to Work: INDIA NREGA since 2006 Recognition of Unemployment during prosperity: South Africa since 2005, Sweden and Australia (1940s-70s) ILO Employment Intensive Infrastructure(since 70s in many African countries) Emergency Programmes:Indonesia, Korea, Argentina post 2001 financial crisis, USA (New Deal and now) Social Funds:Bolivia (1986), Chile (1975-1987), Peru (1991) ???? Employment Guarantee Programs -What kinds of jobs and for what types of projects?
-Who is eligible? For how long? -What is the cost of such projects and what are the benefits? Financing? Are they inflationary? -Institutional arrangements? Technical expertise? Employment Guarantee Programs Expanded Public Works Programmes [infrastructure, social sector, environment, economic] SOUTH AFRICA National Rural Employment Guarantee Act [Right to Information Act- Ongoing Social Audits ] INDIA Time Spent on Unpaid Work -SA Total Hours Spent on Unpaid Work per Year by Household Type and Gender Ex-homeland African Rural Commercial White Household Group Rural Commercial Coloured/Asian
Female Rural Commercial African Male Urban Informal African Urban Formal White Urban Formal Coloured/Asian Total Hours Per Year 8,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,000,000,000
2,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 0 Urban Formal African Rural Areas in India Types of Community Projects Rural roads and access roads Rural land development Flood control works Water conservation and water harvesting Irrigation facilities to land owned by poor people and to beneficiaries of land reforms Reactivation of traditional water harvesting and distribution systems EPWP Types of Community Projects Road construction and maintenance Water delivery
Ecological latrines Early childhood development (unpaid work) Home and community based care (unpaid work) Environmental water conservation Prevention of fires EPWP: Social Sector Social Sector consists of ECD/Education and HCBC/Health High female intensity (60 and 69% respectively) addresses female unemployment in the short run and builds skills in the long-term Data source: Friedman, Irwin, Bhengu, L., Mothibe, N., Reynolds, N., and Mafuleka, A., (2007) Scaling up the EPWP,Health Systems Trust, November, Volume 1-4. Study commissioned by Development Bank of South Africa and EPWP. Background on the Study Type of Intervention : scaling up Early Childhood Development and Home/Community Based Care The right to work , the right types of projects?
unpaid work and gender issues Research project on micro-macro impact of scaling up public job creation South Africa Study: Kijong Kim (Levy Institute), EPWP interviews , Irwin Friedman (Health Trust Fund) and PROVIDE team (Dept. of Agriculture) EPWP: Social Sector The SAM for South Africa Based on PROVIDE, Dept. of Agriculture Factors disaggregated by skill and gender 26 sectors 20 types of hhs 7 exogenous sectors 1 2 3 4 5 E X
O G 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 SALTAX INDTAX DIRTAX GOVT KAP
Urban Formal Colored Non-Poor Urban Formal Colored Poor Urban Formal Colored Ultra Poor Urban Formal White Non-Poor Urban Informal African Non-Poor Urban Informal African Poor Urban Informal African Ultra Poor Rural Commercial African Non-Poor Rural Commercial African Poor Rural Commercial African Ultra Poor Rural Commercial Colored Non-Poor Rural Commercial Colored Poor Rural Commercial Colored Ultra Poor Rural Commercial White Non-Poor Ex-homeland African Non-Poor Ex-homeland African Poor Ex-homeland African Ultra Poor Policy Simulations All Existing Types of Projects have the potential to reduce unpaid work and facilitate creation and access to basic services EPWP Working for Water; environment sector (Tsitsikamma EPWP Social Sector (Health Trust Fund)
EPWP Infrastructure;Access roads and Water Reticulation (SCIP 2004/05) Engineering Group) Options for Job allocation scheme Jefes variation by population weights (part time year around) NREGA scheme (100 days) Poverty weights-normalized by population Unemployment weights normalized by poverty incidence Target population Poor and ultra poor households comprising (50% of the unemployed); unskilled wages according to programme stipulations and skilled according to SAM Impact of EPWP Injection
ex-ante evaluation of policy scenarios Direct and indirect job creation (skill level/gender/sector) Direct and indirect income received by type of hh Depth of poverty reduction GDP growth? Pro-poor growth?Sectoral growth? Fiscal space expansion? Impact of new assets and service delivery for participants and community Simulation Results 9 billion Rand, full time-year around jobs Direct job creation (1,2million) Indirect job creation: for every 3 EPWP, another one in the economy is created GDP (+1.7%), tax expansion (1/3 recovered) Poverty reduction: pro-poor growth! Costs and Benefits Social inclusion Income-Poverty reduction? This depends on the length and duration of jobs, wages and targeting method
Asset poverty reduction!!! Service delivery!!! Gender equality in unpaid and paid work Pro-poor development Monetary cost: 1% of GDP .?3% of GDP? Opportunity cost of not mobilizing domestic resources? www.economistsforfullemployment.org Thank you The International Working Group on Gender, Macroeconomics and International Economics www.genderandmacro.org www.economistsforfullemployment.org member institutions... we are... a group of economists working towards building a global informal network of academics, policy advisors, institutions, advocates and members of government, committed to the realization of the right
to work we are committed to... joining forces with all who foster public dialogue and seek to promote employment guarantee around the world. Together, we can provide coherent, viable policy alternatives that lead to inclusive and just outcomes for all COUNTRIES REPRESENTED Morocco India South Africa Luxembourg Brazil Turkey Ghana Bulgaria Mexico
Australia Switzerland Costa Rica Columbia Argentina Djibouti United States Tunisia Iran Belgium Georgia Canada
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