The Story of Sally Clark - National University of Singapore

The Story of Sally Clark - National University of Singapore

The Story of Sally Clark Group 2 - Jing Kai (Presenter), Nabilah, Soon Guan Reading Sally Clark (5 February 2017). Retrieved 21 March 2017, from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sally_Clark The statement by Professor Dawidon: SALLY CLARK APPEAL. Retrieved

from http://www.statslab.cam.ac.uk/~apd/SallyClark_report.doc Overview Background Information Conviction for Murder Analysis of Statistical Evidence Aftermath Conclusion Background Information Born an only child in Wiltshire,

South West England) Married solicitor Steve Clark (1990) Moved to Cheshire, North West England in order to practice law with her husband (1994) Conviction for Murder Two separate incidences where Sally Clarks baby passed away due to unknown causes (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, SIDS) Sally Clark was found alone at home on both occasions

No evidence to prove or disprove her involvement Sally Clark was convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment on 9th November, 1999 The Antagonists Dr Alan Williams Withheld microbiology test

results for second baby Tests showed the bacterium Staphylococcus aureus in multiple sites of the baby Baby could have died due to health concerns! The Antagonists

Bayes analysis: 1 in 73 million chance (1/8543) x (1/8543) of two children from an affluent family suffering cot death Professor Sir Roy Meadow

Conclusion that since this probability is very low, the probability of murder is very high Analysis of Statistical Evidence 1) Assumption of independence Flaws in calculation: Lurking variables: Gender, genetic or environmental factors

Chances of a second death increases by 5-10 fold after the first Uncertainty with probability of double cot death most likely understated Analysis of Statistical Evidence

2) Relevance of data: Fallacious logic Probability of double cot death (Prosecutors fallacy)

Double cot murder is a less likely phenomenon Relative likelihood should be used Probably of innocence! Relative likelihood P (2 SIDS deaths in a

family) = 1 in 5 million P (2 murdered babies in a family) = 1 in 15 million P (2 SIDS deaths in a family) : P (2 murdered babies in a family) =3:1 Aftermath

Unearthing of microbiological tests by Sally Clarks husband Along with the case for flawed statistical evidence, Sally Clark was acquitted in January 2003 Review of hundreds other cases 3 similar cases overturned Aftermath Roy Meadow was struck off the medical register in 2005 for serious professional misconduct but subsequently reinstated after appeal Dr Alan Williams was banned from Home Office pathology work and coroners' cases for three years Sally Clark diagnosed with psychiatric problems associated with posttraumatic disorder and alcohol dependency syndrome Passed away on

16th March 2007 due to acute alcohol intoxication "Throughout my review, I was horrified by the shoddy fashion in which these cases were evaluated. It was clear that sound medical principles were abandoned in favour of over-simplification, over-interpretation, exclusion of relevant data and, in several instances, the imagining of non-existent findings." Dr Sam Gulino, forensic pathologist for the State of Florida, USA. Conclusion Logical and accurate use of statistical information with

explanations required Data needs to be precise and context-specific Failure to make appropriate inferences from statistics can result in fatal consequences Thank You!

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