Trade Policy and WTO Accession for Economic Development ...
Trade Policy and WTO Accession for Economic Development: Application to Russia and the CIS Module 2 Openness, Growth and Poverty by Giorgio Barba Navaretti and Marcello Span December 13, 2004 Main questions addressed Which are the channels through which trade openness affects the economic activities of a given country? What are the effects of trade openness on growth? What are the effects of trade openness on poverty and income distribution? 2 Structure of this lecture Trade openness and growth: theoretical predictions
Trade openness, poverty and inequality: theoretical predictions Trade openness, growth and convergence: crosscountry evidence Trade openness, poverty and income distribution: cross-country evidence Evidence from country studies 3 Trade openness and growth: theoretical predictions Lesson 3A Trade openness provides a conducive environment and a necessary condition for faster long term growth through: Efficient allocation of resources Exploitation of scale economies Acccess to foreign technologies Lesson 4A But trade openness in itself cannot always be a sufficient condition for faster growth because of: Patterns of specialisation Agglomeration effects
4 Trade openness poverty and inequality: theoretical predictions Lesson 5A: Trade openness can reduce absolute poverty through: Growth Changes in relative factor and product prices Lesson 6A: Effects on relative poverty and income distribution can be controversial: Winners and loosers 5 Figure 1. The microeconomic links between trade policy and poverty 6 Does openness affect growth? Cross country evidence Lesson 3B. According to cross country evidence,
trade openness is associated to faster growth. There is no evidence of sustainable development miracles without export expansion and integration into world markets. Several contributions also find evidence that trade openness has a positive causal effect on growth. There is no evidence of the contrary, that protection and trade barriers favour long term sustainable growth. 7 Does openness affect growth? Cross country evidence Countries open to trade grow faster Table 2.2 Trade policy orientation and annual growth rate of GDP in less developed countries (1963-1992) 1963-1973 1973-1985 1980-1992
Strongly open to trade 6.9% 5.9% 6.4% Moderately open 4.9% 1.6% 2.3% Moderately anti-trade 4.0% 1.7%
-0.2% Strongly anti-trade 1.6% -0.1% -0.4% Source: Lindert and Williamson (2003). From World Bank (1987 and 1994); 8 Does openness affect growth? Cross country evidence Causal links: evidence from multivariate econometric analysis: Studies in the Nineties find that the effect is positive (Levine and Renelt 1992, Edwards 1993, Sachs and
Warner 1995, Frankel and Romer, 1999) Reaction: these studies questioned on methodological ground (estimation method and measures of openness) by Rodriguez and Rodrik (2000) Counter reaction: Whithin country effect positive (Wacziarg and Welch, 2002) No evidence of opposite effect (trade lib harms growth) Lindert and Williamson, 2003 9 Does openness affect convergence? Cross country evidence Lesson 3 C: According to cross country analysis, those developing countries that managed to grow faster than rich countries and to converge to their income level are open to trade 10
Figure 2.1 - Real per capita GDP growth Source: Dollar and Kraay (2001) 11 Does openness affect convergence? Cross-country evidence Problem: convergence Argentina) in clubs (e.g. Lesson 4B. According to cross country evidence, although trade openness is conducive to faster growth, in itself it is not always a
sufficient condition to achieve faster growth and convergence of income levels. 12 Does openness affect poverty and income distribution? Cross country evidence Lesson 5B In countries open to trade, growth has a positive effect on poverty and on average income distribution. Lesson 5C The largest reductions in absolute poverty in the last twenty years have occurred in countries open to trade. Lesson 6C However, cross country evidence is not conclusive on the broad effects of trade on relative poverty and inequality 13 Does openness affect poverty and income distribution?Cross country evidence
Figure 2.2 Open Economies: Lesson 5B In countries open to trade, growth has a positive effect on poverty and on average income distribution. Average Per Capita Income Growth of Total Population and of the Poorest Quintile Positive growth of average income Negative growth of income of the poor
Negative growth of average income Negative growth of income of the poor Positive growth of average income Positive growth of income of the poor Negative growth of average income Positive growth of income of the poor Source: Dollar and Kraay (2000) 14 Does openness affect poverty and income distribution?Cross country evidence
Lesson 5C The largest reductions in absolute poverty in the last twenty years have occurred in countries open to trade. Table 2.1 Population living below US$1 per day in developing countries Number of people Poverty rate (%) below US$1 a day (millions) 1990 2000 (estimate) 1990 2000 (estimate) East Asia 470 261
29.4 14.5 Excluding China 110 57 24.1 10.6 South Asia 466 432
41.5 31.9 Sub-Saharian Africa 241 323 47.4 49 Latin America 48 56 11
10.8 Middle East/ North Africa 5 8 2.1 2.8 Europe/Central Asia 6 24 1.4
4.2 Total 1237 1100 28.3 21.6 Source: World bank. Global Economic Prospects 2004. (2003). 15 Country studies: trade liberalization strategies Lesson 7 Country studies show that there are different models of successful trade liberalisation
EPZ (Mauritius) Pegged exchange rate is a bad strategy (Chile) Active export promotion (Korea) 16 Country studies: micro effects Pro-competitive effects on firms (Chile, Columbia) Volatility of employment (Chile and Columbia) Food insecurity (Mexico) 17
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